100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (New York Jets)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The New York Jets.

In Season 1 of 24, Jack Bauer’s daughter sneaked out of the house with a friend named Janet. She was really there as a plot device to get Kim Bauer into shenanigans. Over the course of six episodes, she was kidnapped, drugged, maybe raped (the show wasn’t clear on when the drugging occurred; she might have acted willingly). Kidnappers broke her arm. She was hit by a car and abandoned. She flatlined while doctors were caring for her but was (barely) revived. And finally, she was murdered by a man posing as her (also murdered) father and then abandoned by everybody in the show and the show at large — I don’t think she was ever mentioned again, even by her supposed friend.

I was an active participant in message boards about the show back in those days (RIP Television Without Pity), and the plight of the poor actress (Jacqui Maxwell) was a regular source of comedy. She booked what she had to have considered her big break (prior to booking 24, her only role was as “Girl #4” in the Gilmore Girls pilot), and instead she basically appeared long enough to say “ow” in a bunch of different ways and disappear, and she only booked a few more unexciting gigs before her career apparently peterd out four years later. Before her character’s death, fans would laugh and joke and guess what crazy plot contrivance could happen to her this time.

Anyway, the Jets (finally!) got a franchise quarterback last year. Jets fans had been through the Mark Sanchez and Sam Darnold and Adam Gase and Le’Veon Bell eras, had found a dozen different ways to get excited, and now had this supposed savior, only to see him lost for the season after four plays and spend the rest of the fall as the subject (fair or otherwise) of just about every Tyson Zone-esque rumor you can imagine.

Don’t mind me, just over here, noticing some parallel storytelling.

The Questions

77. Do We Trust Aaron Rodgers’ Return?
78. Can Mike Williams Be a Real Factor?
79. How Good an Argument Does Breece Hall Have to Be the 1.01?

100 Questions for 2024: New York Jets

Do We Trust Aaron Rodgers’ Return?

Only one player in the entire NFL saw a bigger drop in fantasy scoring from 2022 to 2023 than Aaron Rodgers’ 251.2-point decline, truly a sign the now-40-year-old should have retired and…

OK, OK, cheap shot, just having fun. (Nick Chubb’s 258.3-point drop as the biggest, also irrelevant.) It took Rodgers just four unfortunate snaps to ruin what was set up to be the most exciting Jets season in at least a generation. The team had a disastrous backup quarterback situation, bouncing from Zach Wilson to Tim Boyle to Trevor Siemian, and even with that, Breece Hall was the PPR RB2, Garrett Wilson notched his second straight 1,000-yard season, and the Jets make it to 7-10 and the fringe of the playoff conversation thanks to an elite defense.

Now, Rodgers is back. He’s exactly one week older than me (play forever, Aaron), which means I know very well how 40 feels. Still, Rodgers won two of the last four NFL MVPs and put up 111 touchdowns against 21 interceptions with a 108.0 passer rating his last three years before 2023, adding 7 touchdowns on the ground.

But there are problems! Yes, those numbers are Rodgers’ last three healthy years, and yes, he won two MVPs in 2020-2021-2022. That really disguises the trend, as the MVPs came in 2020-2021 and featured 85 touchdowns against 9 picks and 6 rushing touchdowns, while in 2022 he fell to a 26:12 TD:INT and only a single rushing touchdown.

Rodgers certainly has something to prove in 2024. The Jets’ line is ranked No. 9 in our offensive line rankings, though there is more downside than upside in the range of outcomes. Still, if there’s one player in the league for whom you’d expect “something to prove” to be the deciding factor in performance, it’s Rodgers, and you can get him at QB19 in current drafts. I would be more than comfortable taking a shot at him there or even above, QB15 or so, albeit with the caveat that I am absolutely pairing him with someone in the Tua Tagovailoa mode who can be counted on for a high floor.

Can Mike Williams Be a Real Factor?

Aaron Rodgers’ second-best wide receiver hasn’t been very good since 2016 or so, whenever Jordy Nelson was still at his peak and Davante Adams was entering his. If healthy, Mike Williams is almost certainly the best No. 2 receiver Rodgers has had since then, and given his No. 1 receivers have included guys like Allen Lazard in recent years, it’s not particularly close.

But that isn’t conclusive by itself. Because yes, healthy Mike Williams is a fine wide receiver, (a) he’s never battled injury, including only 3 games played last year and missing 4 games in 2022, and (b) he’s not as good as his reputation. Williams and Keenan Allen were hyped as an elite 1-2 punch in Los Angeles. But they first became teammates in 2017, meaning they played seven seasons together. And over that time, Allen’s worst season by PPR points per game was better than Williams’ second-best season, with only the 16.7 PPG he managed in three games last year beating any Allen season. Williams is a fine WR2.5 who has been masquerading as a 1B in his offense. He only has two career seasons of over 900 yards, only has one of double-digit touchdowns. His yards per reception has dropped every year since 2019, and 2021 was the only season he’s topped 100 targets.

The good news is Williams is only WR54 in early ADP, and at that price, you can afford to take a flyer on a guy with admitted upside, especially if his quarterback resembles his old self. But if you do so, just be aware that it is a flyer. There’s a definite chance Williams floats along as an unexciting fill-in fantasy option or worse, so don’t go in planning on him being someone you have to rely on.

How Good an Argument Does Breece Hall Have to Be the 1.01?

Breece Hall was the No. 2 running back in PPR leagues last year. It’s more or less never difficult to make an argument that a (healthy) guy who was just the RB2 can be the RB1. But it’s worth noting that Hall was about as close in fantasy points to RB25 Gus Edwards as he was to RB1 Christian McCaffrey — McCaffrey had 391.3 points, 100.8 more than Hall’s 290.5, while Edwards’ 187.0 was 103.5 behind Hall. Basically, this wasn’t a normal RB2 season, the worst total for the RB2 since running backs collectively seemed to take the 2015 season off.

But there is very obviously room for growth for Hall in 2024. Aaron Rodgers should make for a much better offense than the Wilson/Boyle/Siemian combo last year, of course. The improved (if volatile) offensive line should help as well. And then there’s just scoring opportunity — Hall was seventh in the league with 299 touches last year, and somehow only tied for 42^nd in red zone carries (tied with Ezekiel Elliott! Fewer than Dameon Pierce! One more than Justice Hill and Latavius Murray!) and a mind-boggling 100^th in carries inside the 5, with … 1. Hall’s only carry inside the 5-yard line in the 2023 season was a 2-yard touchdown run in Week 16 against the Commanders. Yes, last year’s RB2 did not have a single carry from the 1-yard line all season.

That shouldn’t be possible, and it screams that the Jets (or Nathaniel Hackett, or at the least Aaron Rodgers) have to give Hall more high-value work in 2024. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hall does fall off from his position-leading 95 targets and 76 receptions from a year ago (the famously quick-processing Rodgers has never had a running back top 59 receptions and only Aaron Jones has ever topped 40), which will ding him. Christian McCaffrey, assuming he’s healthy, is still the clear choice for 1.01 in 2024, but Hall, another year removed from his ACL tear and in a better and more valuable offense, has a perfectly fine argument for being one of the choices if 1.01 wants to get contrarian. As I said in the 100 Questions intro, if I’m drafting first overall 10 times, I’m taking McCaffrey five times, Amon-Ra St. Brown once, and Hall and Bijan Robinson twice each. It’s a good argument.