2024 AdventHealth 400 prop bets: NASCAR Cup Series odds, picks at Kansas

The NASCAR Cup Series visits Kansas Speedway this weekend for the AdventHealth 400. You can tune into the action on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.

Denny Hamlin won last year’s spring race in a thrilling last-lap battle with Kyle Larson. Hamlin won last week’s race at Dover, with Larson finishing second.

Over the last few years, Kansas has become one of the season’s most exciting races. We should see more thrilling battles this year.

How should you bet on the AdventHealth 400? Check out my favorite prop bets below.

NASCAR Cup Series: Top odds to win AdventHealth 400

AdventHealth 400 prop bets

Driver matchup: Bubba Wallace over Chase Elliott (+105, DraftKings)

Bubba Wallace is a driver who will finish anywhere from 10th to 15th most weeks, but you can shoe him in as a top-five contender at Kansas.

Wallace has been exceptional at at the track in the Next-Gen era. He has three top-10 finishes there, including a win in the Fall 2022 race. His lone bad finish came after hitting the wall while running second in last year’s Fall race.

Chase Elliott should be a contender, but I have him slightly below Wallace. Elliott hasn’t had a top-five in Kansas since finishing second in the Fall 2021 race.

It’ll likely be a close battle between Wallace and Elliott. However, the value of Wallace is too good to pass up.

Noah Gragson to win Group C (+300, Caesars)

Before the season, there’s no way I would’ve picked Noah Gragson to finish ahead of Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher. Eleven races into the season, and I’m backing Gragson to defeat a pair of past champions.

Gragson surprised everyone with a top-five at Las Vegas in March. He showed top-15 speed in last year’s Spring race before hitting the wall.

It’s been a while since Logano showed top-10 speed on a high-speed 1.5-mile track. Keselowski and Buescher were strong in 2023 but didn’t look good at Las Vegas or Texas.

Gragson is the biggest longshot in this group. I don’t know if he should be the favorite, but he should have better odds than +300.

Top Chevy: William Byron (+300, bet365)

William Byron has been great on high-speed 1.5-mile tracks in the Next-Gen era. He won last year at Las Vegas and Texas and scored a third-place finish in this year’s Texas race.

Kansas has been tough for Byron, as he only has two top-five finishes in 12 starts. Still, he has the second-best chance to lead the Chevy group, and I like his chances on Sunday.

From an odds perspective, this is a battle between Kyle Larson, Byron and Elliott. Larson should have race-winning speed, but we’ve often seen Byron have better execution late in races. I mentioned how Elliott has been good but not great in Kansas.

It’ll be a tough battle against Larson, but Byron’s +300 odds look good as the top Chevy.

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Winning car number under 11.5 (+110, Caesars)

We’re taking a small group for the winning car number, but we have the key number of 11.5. That means we include four-time Kansas winner Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin has been the driver to beat this season, recording three wins and 535 laps led. He has a streak of five straight top-five finishes at Kansas.

His biggest challenger is Larson and the No. 5 team. The 2021 Kansas winner has finished eighth or better in five straight Kansas races. He also won at a high-speed 1.5-mile track in Las Vegas this season.

Hamlin and Larson are the drivers to watch, but Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Noah Gragson could find themselves in contention.