2024 Belmont Stakes Odds: Sierra Leone Leads | Point Spreads

The Belmont Stakes is the final leg of the Triple Crown, and Sierra Leone is our top pick to take out the New York feature. The 2024 Belmont Stakes odds have Sierra Leone at +180 to hold off the likes of Mindframe, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, and Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey.

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Justice for Sierra Leone

There is little doubt Sierra Leone should have won the Kentucky Derby, which could have changed the dynamic of the Triple Crown.

The Chad Brown-trained colt was hampered in the straight, especially close to the line, and we believe he would have beaten Mystik Dan with a clear run. That forced him to miss the Preakness Stakes, so he deserves a chance at the Belmont Stakes.

The current favorite with horse racing odds is likely to firm on race day. Getting +180 for a runner with his ability is good shopping, and the Belmont Stakes distance is right up his alley.

Having a different bit could help him from running in, which has cost him in the past.

“He tends to want to lean in a little bit, and in his two losses it was much more severe than his three victories,” Brown said. “Some things with horses there’s no logical reason why they do the things they do. We’re just trying to get him to run a bit straighter the last part of the race.”

Considering Mindframe is on the second line of betting after winning two low-grade races, the 2024 Belmont Stakes odds for Sierra Leone are too good to pass up.

In the Right Mindframe

Good on connections for having a go with Mindframe, and the betting confidence is telling.

The Todd Pletcher-trained colt enters the Grade I race with just two starts under his belt, and he’s yet to face stakes company, let alone the pinnacle of age-group racing. The son of Constitution won on debut at Gulfstream Park before winning at Churchill Downs in an allowance race.

That form is not even close to what he faces here, but he won those races in style, and Pletcher doesn’t usually take chances with his runners. It’s a risk to put him in the deep end at such an early stage of his career, but behind Sierra Leone, the field isn’t the best we’ve ever seen.

“We have the 2-year-old champ in Fierceness and then there’s a horse like Mindframe and by Saturday he might be the best horse in the crop,” co-owner Mike Repole said.

Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey are good thoroughbreds, but they wouldn’t have rated too much higher than Mindframe if this was the Kentucky Derby.

Belmont Stakes odds aren’t letting him out of its sights at +325. That suggests he’ll be right around the mark as the second elect.

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Series Winners Seek Double

Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey know what it takes to win a Triple Crown race, so they can’t be overlooked. The 2024 Belmont Stakes odds have them at +750, and there is no reason why they can’t win again.

Mystik Dan’s Derby win might have been a bit lucky because of the interference, but it was an excellent ride, and he was good enough to dive on the inside and take the gap. He then franked that form with a gutsy second placing behind Seize the Grey in the Preakness Stakes, so he didn’t lose any admirers.

Seize the Grey enjoyed the distance of the Preakness. It’s a different story in the Belmont, but that doesn’t mean he can’t win.

Both runners are at each-way odds, and we expect one of them to figure in the top three, if not both.

Having big race experience puts them above Mindframe, and it’s tough to say Mindframe has more raw talent because of his lower-graded wins.

Sierra Leone has them all covered for natural talent, so we’re backing the favorite at +180 as the best value bet.

2024 Belmont Stakes Post Positions

1. Seize the Grey (8-1)
2. Resilience (10-1)
3. Mystik Dan (5-1)
4. The Wine Steward (15-1)
5. Antiquarian (12-1)
6. Dornoch (15-1)
7. Protective (20-1)
8. Honor Marie (12-1)
9. Sierra Leone (9/5)
10. Mindframe (7/2)

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