2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson best bets, predictions: PGA Tour odds, picks

The PGA Tour stops in McKinney, Texas, this week for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, a name that doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue.

This will be the fourth time TPC Craig Ranch has hosted this event and each of the first three turned into birdie-fests. 

The winning scores in the previous three have been -23, -25 and -26, so golfers will need to make a lot of birdies in order to contend this week. 

The course is a par-71 that measures more than 7,400 yards. It features tree-lined fairways and water hazards on 13 of the 18 holes. 

You would think that would translate into a difficult test for the pros, but that hasn’t been the case. It has played as one of the five easiest courses on the tour in each of the last three years. 

Wind and rain are in the forecast, so perhaps it won’t be so forgiving this time. 

Given the length of the course, it certainly doesn’t hurt to have some distance off the tee. There are very few wedges used at this event, as 70% of approach shots in 2023 came from at least 150 yards. 

Golfers who have good proximity numbers with their mid and long irons will have a significant advantage this week getting onto the large bentgrass greens. 

Course history has not been very predictable at this event, so don’t hesitate looking at golfers who have never played at TPC Craig Ranch. 

At the end of the day, this week will be all about making birdies. 

Top odds to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

CJ Cup Byron Nelson best bets

Si Woo Kim to win (+1800, BetRivers)

Kim has struggled on the greens this year but has still managed to make the cut in all 11 of the events he has started.

He has gained at least 5.7 tee-to-green strokes in six of his last eight starts, which puts him up there with the best in the field over that timeframe.

He’s a good total driver of the ball, excellent on approach, and he has been terrific around the green this season.

He’s one good putting week away from capturing his fifth PGA Tour title. I could see it coming this week since he finished second at last year’s event. 

Adam Scott to win (+2500, BetMGM)

If you just look at Scott’s finishes, he appears to be having a very consistent year, but his strokes-gained metrics in his game log are all over the place.

He’ll gain off the tee and around the green one week and he’ll gain on approach and on the green the next week.

The way I see it, he just needs all parts of his game to fire on the same week and he’ll find himself back in contention.

I like the number that we are getting in this weak field and the fact that he’s finished T32 and T8 in his two starts at this event. 

Nate Lashley top 40 (+125, bet365)

My model always seems to love Lashley. For what it’s worth, he’s come through more often than not this year.

If you look at his statistics, he’s above the field average in all four of the strokes-gained metrics.

You might see a lot of missed cuts in his game log, but they have almost all been by one or two strokes.

Betting on golf?

On a strokes gained basis, he’s actually having a very good year.

He’s finished in the top 25 at this event in each of the last two years, and we are getting +160 on him to finish in the top 40 this week. 

Peter Kuest top 20 (+330, FanDuel)

Kuest burst onto the scene last summer and rattled off a number of top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour. Eventually, he ran out of sponsor’s exemptions and failed to secure his tour card for this season.

However, he has played well on the Korn Ferry Tour and got an invite to play in the Corales event a couple of weeks ago. He finished in the top 10 and earned himself a spot in this field.

He’s a bomber off the tee and can make birdies in bunches. He played here last year and finished T14.