2024 Kentucky Derby picks, predictions: Exactas, trifectas, superfectas

The 2024 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Post-time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET on NBC.

The morning-line favorite is No. 17 Fierceness at 5-2, but the odds suggest that he’s got company at the top of this field in No. 2 Sierra Leone (3-1).

The third-choice, No. 4 Catching Freedom (8-1), is more than double the price of Sierra Leone at the time of writing.

Just like with most Runs for the Roses, you can make a legitimate case for 10 horses to be good enough to win this race on their day.

That means we’ll get some terrific prices on super-talented horses that can add significant value to your exotic bets (exactas, trifectas and superfectas).

Here are the horses I would target to do just that.

2024 Kentucky Derby picks: Horses to use in exactas, trifectas

No. 7 Honor Marie (20-1): It wouldn’t be a surprise if Honor Marie ends up as a popular sleeper on Saturday and we see these odds come down a bit.

He just showed well in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and also has two wins and a second in three starts at Churchill Downs.

He’s got a real chance of hitting the board at a strong price.

No. 18 Stronghold (20-1): The Kentucky Derby is chaos.

No horse has ever run in a race like this and it throws a lot of different challenges at them that we have no idea they can handle.

Stronghold seems to have the right profile to overcome the mayhem.

He’s not the fastest or most athletic horse, but he seems to relish the fight and hanging in long enough for him to use his closing speed to challenge the pack.

He comes in off back-to-back wins in the Sunland Derby and Santa Anita Derby.

No. 15 Domestic Product (30-1): It would take something really special for Domestic Product to upset the headliners, but if things go his way and he’s able to stay within closing distance of the pack, he may pull a stunner.

He’ll need to run a flawless race, but he’s got just the right jockey to help him work out the right trip in Irad Ortiz Jr. 

Kentucky Derby 2024 Betting: Everything you need

If it rains…

No. 6 Just Steel (20-1): It’s likely money will come in on the No. 2 Mystik Dan if it rains.

His first graded stakes win came over a sloppy track at Oaklawn in Arkansas in February.

But instead of going with the obvious choice at what will likely be a mediocre price, I’ll go with the horse that finished second to Mystik Dan in that race: Just Steel.