2024 NFC win-total projections: Eagles, 49ers sit atop conference; Bears, Seahawks just miss playoffs

• Ceiling: 13.0
• Floor: 8.8
• FanDuel over/under: 10.5

According to Next Gen Stats, Jared Goff had the highest touchdown-to-interception ratio (31:4) and second-highest passer rating (116.3) when not pressured last season, including the playoffs. That pairs quite nicely with Detroit boasting the NFL’s highest-ranked offensive line — not just according to my win-share metric, but per PFF, too.

The Lions have finished in the top five in scoring and total offense during each of the past two seasons, and they return a large number of key components on that side of the ball. So, what’s with the significant range between the ceiling and floor results? This is driven by uncertainty around this remade defense, specifically the secondary. Detroit’s cornerback group has a high ceiling, but with a pair of rookies in line for snaps (Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.), it’s a volatile unit to project.