2024 NFL Draft: Odds, prediction for J.J. McCarthy to go top five

The most polarizing quarterback in this year’s NFL draft could have a short wait in the green room on Thursday night in Detroit. 

That’s because Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the postseason draft process and has watched his stock rise rapidly.

Let’s take a look at how it happened and why there’s betting value on his top-five draft prop.

Odds to be drafted in the top 5

J.J. McCarthy’s meteoric rise

Following his stellar performance in the Rose Bowl against Alabama (three passing touchdowns), McCarthy was viewed as a fringe first-round prospect.

According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, which aggregates more than 1,100 mock drafts, he was coming off the board, on average, with the 30th overall pick as recently as Feb. 15th. 

But then his stock took off.

The Michigan quarterback met with 11 teams at the NFL combine in Indianapolis, and according to reports, he dazzled decision-makers in those meetings.

NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported that an anonymous NFC assistant coach expressed his belief that McCarthy “could be the third quarterback off the board.” That coach also relayed that the quarterback had “crushed the combine interview.”

All of this would have been nothing more than window dressing had McCarthy failed to wow scouts at his Pro Day.

After averaging just 22 pass attempts per game last fall, he needed to demonstrate he could consistently make every throw in an NFL route tree. He did that and more with a host of scouts on hand at Michigan’s pro day in Ann Arbor.

That workout was March 23, and following his stellar performance, his average mock draft position jumped into the top 10 for the first time. 

The beauty of playing him to be selected in the top five is that there are a host of ways to cash this bet.

Only a handful of analysts in the scouting community rate McCarthy as this year’s QB3, but betting markets aren’t ruling out the possibility. You can select McCarthy to come off the board with the third overall pick at +450 (FanDuel). 

Odds for team to draft McCarthy

Then there’s the likelihood of a trade-down from both the fourth (Cardinals) and fifth (Chargers) overall picks — spots where those teams have their quarterbacks deeply entrenched.

In the wake of Kirk Cousins’ departure from Minnesota, one of the league’s worst-kept secrets is the Vikings’ willingness to trade up into the top five to select a franchise quarterback.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported the Vikings are in contact with the Patriots, Cardinals and Chargers to move into the top five.

But it’s not just Minnesota that’s champing at the bit to nab a franchise passer. The Giants, Broncos and Raiders also have quarterback needs and assets to make a move into the top five. 

Reporting across reputable media outlets indicates that the Cardinals and/or Chargers could trade out of the top five, and this intel has filtered down to mock drafts across the industry.

Major outlets like CBS Sports, The Athletic, NFL.com and USA Today are all listing at least one proposed trade inside the top five.

Betting on the NFL?

How to bet McCarthy in the draft

The timing of the trade would likely happen on draft night, so it will be crucial to lock in this McCarthy play ahead of time. Once it’s announced that a quarterback-needy team has moved into the top five, there is going to be a massively market shift.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see “McCarthy In The Top Five” come off the board altogether in the event of a top-five trade. 

The other way I’ll be playing McCarthy is via an exact order bet.

You can find these at most sportsbooks and selecting Caleb Williams-Jayden Daniels-Drake Maye-Marvin Harrison Jr.-J.J. McCarthy “Top Five Exact Order” is worth a flyer if you can find it north of +450. 

Pick: J.J. McCarthy drafted in the top 5 picks (-130, DraftKings)