2024 NFL Draft odds, predictions: Best prop bets for first round

The NFL draft is finally here, and I have you covered with four of my favorite prop bets for the first round, which kicks off Thursday night in Detroit.

The Chicago Bears will be put on the clock by league commissioner Roger Goodell at 8 p.m. ET.

All expectations are that USC quarterback Caleb Williams will be the top overall pick. In fact, the choice is so certain that sportsbooks have long stopped listing Williams as the option at No. 1.

2024 NFL Draft: Top prop bets for Round 1

Over/under 4.5 quarterbacks taken in Round 1 (+280 DraftKings)

I remain steadfast in believing that quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix are not first-round prospects.

The market disagrees, but we’ve seen quarterbacks in recent years see significant first-round buzz before falling in the draft. Hendon Hooker, Will Levis and Malik Willis all come to mind.

With Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake May and J.J. McCarthy all expected to go in the top 10 picks, all it would take for the over to hit on this prop is one more QB taken in the first round, either Penix or Nix.

But both are imperfect prospects with red flags.

First, only two quarterbacks older than Penix (turns 24 on May 8) and Nix (turned 24 on Feb. 25) have ever been drafted in the first round.

Secondly, Penix had four season-ending injuries while at Indiana before transferring to Washington, and there are significant questions about his ball placement and production under pressure.

And while Nix put up gaudy numbers at Oregon (4,508 passing yards, 45 touchdowns, 3 interceptions in 2023), he played in a gimmicky offense that rarely asked him to make difficult throws downfield into tight windows. Are his skills transferrable to the NFL?

There have only bee five quarterbacks taken in the first round four times in the draft history, and I’m betting this year will not be the fifth.

Pick: Under 4.5 quarterbacks selected in Round 1 (+280, DraftKings)

Over/under 6.5 wide receivers taken in Round 1

Juice is only juice if it loses, and with the NFL draft, you can take some more liberties with betting into juiced markets.

Unlike a basketball game, which can contain wild 3-point variance, the draft is information-driven. And all the information so far indicates we will see at most six wide receivers come off the board on Thursday night. 

We know about the top three wide receivers in this draft class: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. However, it gets very murky past that top tier.

Brian Thomas Jr. was climbing up odds boards, but now there are concerns about his medical history, particularly with a past labrum injury.

Adonai Mitchell has some off-field concerns (see below), while Xavier Worthy has as wide a range of outcomes as anyone in this class. Even if both Texas receivers break into the first round, which is far from a guarantee, we’d still only have six wideouts.

The wide receiver position is the deepest in this year’s draft, with plenty of starting-caliber talents available on Day 2.

I’d be more surprised by seven first-round wide receivers than seeing just four come off the board.

Pick: Under 6.5 wide receivers selected in Round 1 (-360, DraftKings)

Position of Chiefs’ first drafted player

The ongoing situation with Rashee Rice pushed wide receiver up to the favored position to be drafted by the Chiefs, and according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Rice is facing a multi-game suspension.

However, wide receiver is far from Kansas City’s only need. 

The Chiefs’ offensive line was a problem spot last year, and it’s difficult to envision them going into next season with Wanya Morris and Jawaan Taylor as their starting tackles without adding any competition.

Jordan Morgan and Kingsley Suamataia are offensive tackles who should be available at No. 32. We could also see the Chiefs trade up for someone like Tyler Guyton or Amarius Mims.

The drop-off from the top crop of tackles to the Day 2 prospects is much more significant than at wide receiver. Those supply-and-demand economics should push the Chiefs to prioritize the offensive line in Round 1 before adding pass-catching talent on Day 2.

Pick: Chiefs’ first drafted player: Offensive lineman (+110, FanDuel)

Betting on the NFL?

Adonai Mitchell over/under draft position 27.5

While Mitchell passes the eye test as a top-level wide receiver, his profile has significant concerns.

He had just three career 100-yard games in college and was held under 50 yards in 13 of his last 20 games. He ranked just 100th out of 121 qualified wide receivers in yards per route run last season, per PFF.

In addition to the weak production profile, questions have arisen about Mitchell’s character, mainly linked to his diabetes causing significant mood swings due to low blood sugars.

His commitment to routes is also inconsistent on film, particularly on plays where he knows he isn’t the first read.

I don’t see a great landing spot for Mitchell before No. 28 to the Bills, and with this prop, we’re locking in that pick as a potential outcome. If Brian Thomas’ injury concerns cause him to slide, that could also result in Mitchell falling further down draft boards.

Pick: Adonai Mitchell over 27.5 (-190, Caesars)