2024 NFL futures: Should the Giants replace Daniel Jones? What SportsLine Projection Model sees for New York

The New York Giants believed they found their quarterback of the future when they selected Daniel Jones out of Duke with the sixth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. After losing its first two games of the 2019 season with two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning as its starter, New York handed the reins to Jones, who guided the team to victory in his first two starts before losing eight straight outings and nine of his final 10 that year.

Jones struggled with ball security during his rookie campaign, throwing 12 interceptions while leading the NFL with 18 fumbles – including 11 that resulted in turnovers. He reduced those totals in his second year but still was picked off 10 times and tied for first in the league with 11 fumbles in 14 games.

A neck injury in Week 12 prematurely ended his 2021 season, and he threw for a career-high 3,205 yards with 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions the following year while leading the Giants to a playoff berth and a victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the wild-card round.

That performance led some to believe that Jones finally was turning things around and becoming the quarterback he was expected to be. The Giants certainly felt that way, as they signed him to a four-year, $160 million contract extension in March 2023.

However, Jones took a big step backward last season, throwing only two TD passes and six interceptions while fumbling four times as New York lost four of its first five games. The North Carolina native suffered a neck injury against the Miami Dolphins in Week 5 and missed the Giants’ next three contests before returning to face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9, when he completed four of his nine pass attempts for 25 yards but went down in the first quarter with a torn ACL that ended his campaign.

Much of the offseason talk in the New York metropolitan area centered around whether or not the Giants should select a quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft and move on from Jones. The organization decided not to go that route and chose to give him another shot, but after his effort in the team’s season-opening 28-6 home loss to Minnesota last weekend, it may be regretting that decision.

Jones was 22-for-42 for 186 yards with two interceptions in that contest, with the Giants failing to record a touchdown. The 27-year-old will get the start in the Week 2 meeting with the Washington Commanders, against whom he owns a 5-1-1 record with 1,510 passing yards, 10 TD tosses and three interceptions in seven career games, but head coach Brian Daboll may face a difficult decision if Jones has another disappointing outing.

The alternative options aren’t very encouraging. Drew Lock is second on New York’s depth chart, but in 23 career starts with the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, the 27-year-old is 9-14 with 28 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. New Jersey native Tommy DeVito is a fan favorite, but he proved he wasn’t the answer last season despite winning three straight starts at one point.

One thing the Giants could do is give free agent Ryan Tannehill a call. The veteran signal-caller has made 151 NFL starts with Miami and Tennessee, leading the Titans to a pair of AFC South titles and three consecutive playoff appearances from 2019-21. The 36-year-old was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2019, his first season with the club in which he guided Tennessee to a wild-card victory against the New England Patriots in Tom Brady’s final game with the franchise and a divisional-round triumph over the Baltimore Ravens before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

Tannehill certainly is in the twilight of his career, however, as ineffectiveness and injuries plagued him over the last two seasons with the Titans. But his presence under center could create a spark among the Giants’ players, who likely are disenchanted with Jones and the quarterback situation.

The SportsLine Projection Model does not share that sentiment, however. With Jones as New York’s starter, the model has the team posting five victories in 2024 and gives it a 1.4% chance to earn a postseason berth.

Should the Giants bring Tannehill into the fold and give him the starting job, the model says they will win 5.1 games. Regarding the playoffs, it projects New York has a 1.6% chance of qualifying. The model has New York’s prospects of winning the NFC East at 0.2% with either Jones or Tannehill under center.

As for Week 2, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a tight game between the Giants and Commanders. However, that contest isn’t one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the second week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 2 NFL picks at SportsLine.