2024 NFL predictions, odds: Malik Nabers, Byron Murphy II win Rookie of the Year

The 2024 NFL season begins this week, and an exciting class of rookies has entered the fold, looking to make an immediate impact.

With plenty of options in the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year markets, which players offer the best betting value? Here are my picks:

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Malik Nabers (15/1, FanDuel)

Ever since Odell Beckham Jr. left the team in 2018, the Giants have suffered from some of the worst pass-catching production in the NFL.

Malik Nabers is poised to change that immediately this season as the rookie wideout from LSU is a big play waiting to happen.

According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception breakdown, Nabers broke multiple tackles on 20.5 percent of his routes “in space.” He was the highest-graded receiver in college football last year, per Pro Football Focus.

The big question you’re asking now is, “What about Daniel Jones?” To that, I counter with, “What about Brian Daboll?”

There’s no question that Jones is a subpar quarterback.

Still, we quickly forget that Daboll was able to orchestrate a top-half scoring offense with Jones in 2022, with Richie James and Darius Slayton as the leading pass-catchers at the wide receiver position.

In that 2022 campaign, Jones led the NFL with an 81.1 percent adjusted completion rate on a steady dose of play-action, RPOs, and manufactured completions.

Those are the types of plays where Nabers can thrive — forcing defenders to miss in space and creating yards after the catch. Nabers has virtually no target competition in this offense.

Fifteen receivers earned a target share of 26+ percent last year, and there’s no reason he can’t get there, even as a rookie.

Caleb Williams is the rightful favorite for OROY, but I love the 15-1 value for Nabers.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is priced at +650 on FanDuel in this market, and there’s no reason the odds should favor him that drastically over Nabers.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Byron Murphy II (14/1, FanDuel)

A record 23 offensive players were selected in the first round of this year’s NFL draft, creating a fascinating landscape of rookie defensive talent.

Edge rushers Laiatu Latu, Dallas Turner, and Jared Verse are the favorites to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.

However, I’m looking a bit further down the board at Seahawks defensive lineman Byron Murphy II.

It’s difficult to find interior defensive linemen who can be disruptors on all three downs in the NFL, but Murphy fits the bill.

He led all interior defensive linemen with a 19.6 percent pass-rush win rate last season at Texas, according to PFF.

He ran a 4.87-second 40-yard dash at 6-feet, 297 pounds, highlighting his remarkable athleticism.

New Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald orchestrated a historically elite Ravens defense last year, and interior defensive lineman Justin Madubuike had a breakthrough season with 65 pressures and 13 sacks.

Expect Macdonald to put Murphy in similar positions to succeed as a penetrating three-technique with game-breaking talent.

Betting on the NFL?

Aaron Donald was the last interior defensive lineman to win this award in 2014. Murphy has drawn comparisons to Donald by former Alabama head coach Nick Saban and former NFL general manager Rick Spielman.

Murphy has also said he models his game after Donald. Comparing rookies to Hall of Fame talents is a risky proposition, but Murphy can make that type of immediate impact for this Seahawks team.