Weather, weather, weather. That’s the theme for NFL Week 12 — at least when it comes to wagering on the Thursday night game.
And something else that I think bettors should be on the lookout for is a less energetic Lions team than we saw last week. Yes, I know, they’re playing the Colts. But I have my reasons.
Keep reading to check out my best bets for this weekend’s slate.
(All times ET)
THURSDAY, NOV. 21
Steelers @ Browns (8:15 p.m., Prime Video)
It’s the time of the year when weather becomes part of a handicap.
It’s supposed to be cold, rainy and windy in Cleveland on Thursday night. So it’s worth repeating the yearly reminder that windy conditions most impact the quarterback’s ability to throw the ball.
The forecast calls for 17 mph winds in Cleveland for Thursday night, and it would figure that, along the river, it’s a tad higher in the stadium. So that will impact the ability for both teams to air it out.
The Browns would rather not rely on Jameis Winston’s arm to win a game, so the ground game will be important to their success. Well, unfortunately, the Steelers are outstanding against the run, and if Winston is forced into passing the ball, the Cleveland offense will not have success.
On the other side, the Steelers do three things on offense: run the football, move quarterback Russell Wilson or have Wilson throw a patented moon ball. It will be hard to complete moon balls with the wind being that fierce.
So, I like both teams to run the ball, focus on establishing the line of scrimmage and have a low total.
Also worth monitoring is the kicking game. Bad wind could equal a few missed field goals.
PICK: Under 36.5 points scored by both teams combined
Can the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense lead them to the Super Bowl?
SUNDAY, NOV. 24
Lions @ Colts (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Standing in front of the Detroit Lions’ freight train could end up being painful, but this is the weekend to wager against them.
The Lions have won eight games in a row, and several of those wins have been by double digits. They beat the Jaguars so badly on Sunday that you would’ve thought they were an FCS team getting paid to play at Georgia.
It’s typically a good time to fade a team after winning a game by six touchdowns.
The Colts got Anthony Richardson back at quarterback after benching him and claiming Joe Flacco was the quarterback for the remainder of the season. They got rewarded for giving the youngster the ball by getting in return an awesome game from Richardson in their win over the Jets.
He was 20-for-30 for 272 yards, plus he used his legs for an additional 32 yards and a touchdown.
There’s certainly still some variance to his game. You get some great with some bad, but the good can be so good that it’s worth wagering on.
I do worry about the Colts pass defense in this game, but I think the offense can move the ball on the Lions, who continue to suffer injuries on defense.
If the Colts can keep the ball away from the Lions, they should be able to cover this game.
PICK: Colts (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points, or win outright
Giants bench Daniel Jones for Tommy DeVito
Buccaneers @ Giants (1 p.m., CBS)
The New York Giants have benched quarterback Daniel Jones. Instead, they’re starting Tommy DeVito, a sensation for the Giants last season.
Last year, DeVito was 3-3 and completed 64% of his passes, but only averaged 122.3 passing yards per game. Not exactly setting any passing records. The lore of his play is not matched by how he actually played.
The Giants offensive line is not good, and although they have some decent skill talent, nothing makes them a routinely explosive offense. They have some outstanding defensive linemen but rank 25th in defensive DVOA.
In summation, New York is not a good team and DeVito makes it worse.
Tampa Bay is off a much-needed bye after losing four in a row, the last three being without it top two receivers.
The Buccaneers played tough and lost close games. However, they played against the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs and 49ers. The Giants are clearly not comparable to those four teams, and I think Tampa Bay will be fired up to play this weekend.
The Bucs have to win to keep up with the Falcons in the NFC South and will be pumped to get Mike Evans back. The Giants are also generally awful at covering the spread at home.
I like Tampa.
PICK: Buccaneers (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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