NFL
2025 NFL Draft order projections: Giants lead race for No. 1, plus how each top-pick contender could finish
Three teams enter Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season with 2-10 records, and two of them are in need of a franchise quarterback. Unfortunately for the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders, the pool is extremely shallow after last year’s NFL Draft saw signal-callers taken with six of the first 12 selections – including each of the first three.
The crown jewel of the 2025 NFL Draft in Green Bay is junior two-way star Travis Hunter Jr., who has excelled at both wide receiver and cornerback for the Colorado Buffaloes this season. The favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, Hunter has made 92 catches for 1,152 yards and 14 touchdowns while also recording 31 tackles and four interceptions on the defensive side of the ball.
Hunter would be the obvious choice for the other 2-10 team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, should they finish with the No. 1 pick in next April’s draft. Since Jacksonville has Trevor Lawrence under center, taking Hunter would give the 2021 first overall selection the top target he needs.
The New England Patriots also are in the thick of the race for the No. 1 draft pick with a 3-10 record. They selected QB Drake Maye with the third overall selection last year, so Hunter also would be expected to be the player they bring home to Foxborough.
However, should the Giants or Raiders be the first team at the podium, the best options at quarterback figure to be Cam Ward of the Miami (FL) Hurricanes and Shedeur Sanders of Colorado. Ward has thrown for 4,123 yards and a nation-leading 36 touchdowns, while Sanders follows closely with 3,926 yards and 35 TD tosses.
The Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and New York Jets all sit at 3-9, with the latter being the most likely to entertain grabbing a quarterback with the top draft pick given how miserably the Aaron Rodgers has failed. It’s not out of the realm of possibility the other three could take that gamble, but with Carolina already having 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young, Tennessee giving 2023 second-rounder Will Levis a long look and Cleveland stuck with Deshaun Watson for two more years, they probably would bring Hunter into the fold.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Giants currently have the best chance to finish with the No. 1 pick at 25.22%. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says New England is next at 20.86%, with Las Vegas (18.99%) and Jacksonville (13.60%) the only other teams in double digits.
The Giants are most likely to finish the season with three wins (36.74%), according to the model. That might even seem overly optimistic, considering their remaining strength of schedule is .548.
The model says the best outlook for the Raiders is four victories (34.06%) and the Jaguars five (32.62%). Jacksonville’s next four games are against opponents with records of 3-9 or worse, but the club is expected to be without Lawrence for the remainder of 2024 due to a concussion and a shoulder injury that requires surgery, so its .279 strength of schedule is misleading.
Of the five teams entering Week 14 with three wins, the model says New England and Carolina both register one more triumph 42.26% and 37.08% of the time, respectively. Its best projections for the Jets (36.40%), Tennessee (34.75%) and Cleveland (34.21%) is five victories.
Don’t sleep on the Patriots finishing with the first overall pick, however, as their remaining strength of schedule is .708. All four of their remaining contests are against clubs that are .500 or better, with two of the matchups being with the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (10-2).
|
Team |
No. 1 pick |
2 Wins |
3 Wins |
4 Wins |
5 Wins |
6 Wins |
7 Wins |
8 Wins |
9 Wins |
SOS |
|
Giants (2-10) |
25.22% |
14.14% |
36.74% |
32.87% |
13.49% |
2.58% |
0.20% |
— |
— |
.548 |
|
Raiders (2-10) |
18.99% |
11.46% |
32.94% |
34.06% |
17.03% |
4.11% |
0.42% |
— |
— |
.433 |
|
Jaguars (2-10) |
13.60% |
2.23% |
13.20% |
30.24% |
32.62% |
17.93% |
3.78% |
— |
— |
.279 |
|
Patriots (3-10) |
20.86% |
— |
35.09% |
42.26% |
18.70% |
3.66% |
0.29% |
— |
— |
.708 |
|
Panthers (3-9) |
6.31% |
— |
16.30% |
37.08% |
31.74% |
12.42% |
2.27% |
0.19% |
— |
.550 |
|
Titans (3-9) |
2.99% |
— |
5.92% |
23.02% |
34.75% |
25.64% |
9.39% |
1.30% |
— |
.355 |
|
Jets (3-9) |
2.04% |
— |
4.43% |
20.51% |
36.40% |
28.07% |
9.41% |
1.18% |
— |
.467 |
|
Browns (3-9) |
9.77% |
— |
11.90% |
33.41% |
34.21% |
16.42% |
3.76% |
0.30% |
— |
.607 |
|
Bears (4-8) |
0.02% |
— |
— |
11.14% |
31.66% |
34.23% |
18.00% |
4.54% |
0.43% |
.700 |
|
Saints (4-8) |
0.18% |
— |
— |
2.75% |
15.80% |
33.47% |
31.72% |
13.96% |
2.30% |
.443 |
|
Bengals (4-8) |
0.01% |
— |
— |
1.23% |
9.02% |
26.06% |
35.31% |
22.84% |
5.52% |
.459 |
New England is on a bye this week, but the 10 remaining teams with four wins or fewer all are in action. Three games feature A-grade picks based on the model’s simulations for the 14th week of the season, with Browns-Steelers and Bengals-Cowboys falling into that category. You can find those top-tier Week 14 NFL picks at SportsLine.
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