2025 NFL Draft, race for No. 1 pick: Jets’ Aaron Rodgers will help determine where teams select

Tthe Jacksonville Jaguars continue to sit in the driver’s seat when it comes to picking first when the 2025 NFL Draft happens this spring. Several other teams saw their draft positions change this past weekend, with more changes slated to take place in Week 14. 

The Raiders leap-frogged the Giants into the No. 2 position following their controversial loss to the Chiefs on Black Friday. New England and Carolina remained in their previous spots, while the Jets, Titans, Browns and Saints swapped positions. The Bengals are still slated to pick 10th following Sunday’s loss to the Steelers. 

Here’s a look at five Week 14 games that could determine the No. 1 overall pick, along with the current top of the draft order. Click here to check out which player our CBS Sports NFL Draft analysts currently have your team taking in the first round of the upcoming draft. 

The draft order below was determined using the current 2025 NFL Draft order. To check out the betting odds on who will be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, head on over to BetMGM.

For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on “With the First Pick” — our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find “With the First Pick” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen below!

Current top 10 picks

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
2. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
3. New York Giants (2-10)
4. New England Patriots (3-10)
5. Carolina Panthers (3-9)
6. New York Jets (3-9)
7. Tennessee Titans (3-9)
8. Cleveland Browns (3-8)
9. New Orleans Saints (4-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) 

Important Week 14 games

Jaguars at Titans 

This is a big matchup as far as next year’s draft is concerned. Losers of five straight, the Jaguars may have to start former first-round pick Mac Jones after Trevor Lawrence suffered a scary hit in this past Sunday’s loss to Houston. Jones held his own after replacing Lawrence, going 20 of 32 for 235 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. 

Like Jacksonville, the 2024 season has been nothing short of a nightmare for the Titans, who are one loss away from suffering their third straight season with at least 10 defeats. It’s been a roller coaster season for third-year quarterback Will Levis, who completed less than half of his attempts during Sunday’s blowout loss to Washington. While no one expected them to defeat the Commanders, this is a winnable game for Levis and Co., who did record an upset win over the Texans in Week 12. 

Give the Raiders credit for punching way above their weight class and nearly upsetting the two-time defending champion Chiefs. Las Vegas’ near upset was in some ways a foreshadowing of what transpired in college football on Saturday when five-loss Michigan went into Columbus and shocked the one-loss Buckeyes. Both games were a reminder that records need to be kicked to the curb when rival teams face off. 

Once again, the Raiders will look to play the role of spoiler against a Buccaneers team that needs a win in order to keep pace with the Falcons for first place in the NFC South division. Tampa has enjoyed an incredible year so far from quarterback Baker Mayfield, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick who is completing a career-high 70.8 percent of his passes.  

Saints at Giants 

New York is full rebuild mode after releasing Daniel Jones and placing Dexter Lawrence on injured reserve. Like Las Vegas, New York did put forth a spirited effort in last Thursday’s 27-20 loss to the Cowboys, who by virtue of their two-game winning streak have fallen out of the running to land a top-five draft pick. 

Like the Giants, the Saints are also slogging through a disappointing season after winning their first two games by a combined score of 91-29. The team continues to receive solid play form former Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara, who is 106 yards away from his first-ever 1,000-yard rushing campaign. 

If you had asked six weeks ago who would be picking first in the 2025 NFL Draft, my answer would have been the Panthers, who at that point had just one win and an unstable quarterback situation. 

Things have certainly changed since then. The Panthers have split their last four games and could have easily won each game. Carolina quarterback and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young has been the NFL’s feel-good story over that span. He had 298 passing yards and two total touchdowns during Sunday’s overtime loss to Tampa. 

Carolina will have its hands full this week, however, as they will run up against the 10-2 Eagles. Fans who tune into this game will be treated to a good running back matchup between Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley and Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard. 

Aaron Rodgers was surely hoping that he would be playing for playoff positioning at this point in the season. Unfortunately for Rodgers, the only impact he will have down the stretch will be determining where the Jets and other teams will draft next spring. 

New York will also try to play the role of spoiler, which includes Sunday against a 5-7 Dolphins team that still has postseason aspirations. Statistically, this game is a bad matchup for Rodgers as he will be facing a Dolphins defense that is 10th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, sixth in touchdown passes allowed, and is eighth in both third down and red zone efficiency. 

Rodgers is also playing for history. He’s just six touchdown passes away from joining Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and former Packers teammate Brett Favre as the only quarterbacks in history with at least 500 career touchdown passes.