3 Best Bets for Monday Night Football: Giants at Steelers

Though expected to begin the season with win totals below .500, the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers have outperformed expectations on many occasions.

New York’s discovery of a bonafide legitimate top option Malik Nabers is awesome, and the G-Men lead the NFL in sacks. However, injuries have started to pile up, and that led to a familiar result last week against the Philadelphia Eagles: a lopsided L. A quarterback controversy is brewing here, too.

Meanwhile, we just saw the Steelers in primetime. They knocked off perhaps the true bottom-feeders of the NFL, the New York Jets, at home. Their switch to Russell Wilson turned from questionable in the first half to genius in the second. Can Russ keep cooking here?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week’s Monday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Giants at Steelers

Under 36.5 (-108)
Under 19.5 Points in First Half (-120)

Wherever you turn for tonight’s game, it suggests some ugliness in the scoring column.

New York has posted single-digit scoring efforts each of the last two weeks, and the common denominator was that Andrew Thomas wasn’t able to finish either game. Thomas is done for the season, so the G-Men’s pass protection, which has surrendered 10 sacks in the last two weeks, has to find answers quickly opposite T.J. Watt and a Steelers D that is third in the NFL in sack conversion (21%), per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

With that said, the Giants’ own defense — leading the NFL in sacks (31) before even playing Week 8 — is a live underdog opposite the Steelers’ inconsistent offense. Pittsburgh hasn’t broken 20 points in four of seven games this season, and Russell Wilson’s sample size of 0.24 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) came against a squad that just turned Jacoby Brissett into a hero.

In terms of blended adjusted pace and pass rate, these teams meet the criteria for a defensive struggle, as well. New York throws quite a bit, but they’re 30th in adjusted pace. The Steelers play quicker, but they’re 30th in adjusted pass rate.

With those components in tow, I’m laddering this game’s under. Both of these teams have cashed unders at a 57.1% clip or better in 2024.

It’s interesting this game’s first-half total is a higher share of points when these are two bottom-seven squads in first-half points per game. Though coming with additional juice, it could be the even better wager than a full-game total.

Greg Joseph Over 5.5 Kicking Points (-114)

With most NFL teams, the drama of this bet might be whether or not a kicker attempts or makes two field goals. For Greg Joseph and the Giants, it might be actually reaching the end of the field where two attempts are possible.

Joseph has missed this prop in consecutive weeks, but one of them was his own doing. He missed two field goals inside of 50 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals, which was a sour turn from a 9-for-10 start as the G-Men’s placekicker. The veteran overall has made 82.0% of 133 career attempts with a long of 61 yards.

Though few and far between since the Thomas injury, Joseph has averaged 2.4 field-goal attempts per game because of New York’s red zone inefficiency. They’re converting trips to touchdowns at the worst clip in the NFL (42.1%). Pittsburgh is the league’s fourth-best unit at preventing touchdowns on red-area trips (42.9%).

Getting the opportunities to cash this prop could be a sweat, but it does correlate well with a low-scoring game where Brian Daboll would be inclined to take the points in some spots where more aggressive teams might go for it on fourth down.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.