Tottenham vs. Arsenal prediction: Premier League odds, picks

The North London Derby between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal is always one of the most anticipated matches on the Premier League calendar, but this Sunday’s contest between these eternal rivals goes well beyond that.

The stakes are massive. 

Arsenal comes into the weekend leading Manchester City by one point (City has a game in hand) in the title race, while Spurs entered the matchweek six points back of Aston Villa (with two matches in hand) for a spot in the top four. 

We’ve already seen one title contender (Liverpool) slip up as a big favorite on the road against their biggest rival.

Will Arsenal become the second?

Arsenal vs. Tottenham pick

This is a clash of conflicting styles.

Arsenal do their best work in controlled environments in which they can dictate the tempo of the match with their possession-dominant brand of soccer.

This pragmatic style of play works quite well for the Gunners because they are the best defensive team in all of Europe.

They rarely need to worry about outscoring opponents, since they don’t give up scoring chances. 

Spurs do their best work in frenetic, back-and-forth contests.

Tottenham wants to keep the ball moving and bet on itself to come out ahead in matches where there are chances on both sides of the pitch.

Spurs want to tilt the field and overwhelm you so that you are forced to engage in this all-action style of soccer. 

These contrasting philosophies should make for quite a spectacle, just as it was when these two sides drew, 2-2, back in September.

A lot has changed since that match, which featured 4.6 expected goals and 26 shots combined between the two teams, but one thing that is the same is how Arsenal and Tottenham will approach this match. 

But perhaps more important than the stylistic matchup is the fact that Spurs come into Sunday with a massive rest advantage.

Arsenal have played eight matches in the last four weeks and this will be their fifth match in 14 days.

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The Gunners didn’t look fatigued at all in a 5-0 romp against Chelsea on Tuesday, but this match will be much more of a slog than that one and Spurs will be desperate to ruin Arsenal’s title charge.

Arsenal is the deserving favorite on the road, but the +350 payout on Spurs in this situational spot is way too good to pass up.

The bet: Tottenham +350 (FanDuel)