Bucks vs. Pacers Game 4 prediction: NBA playoffs odds, picks for Sunday

There’s no doubt Game 3 between the Bucks and Pacers was the most enthralling matchup of the 2024 NBA playoffs thus far. And it is challenging to imagine another game topping it.

With Caitlin Clark revving the Pacers crowd up, the Bucks erased a 19-point deficit to take a lead late in the fourth quarter, only to fall to Indiana on a last-second and-one floater by Tyrese Haliburton in overtime.

Both teams left Gainbridge Field in Indianapolis exhausted, especially the Bucks, who were exerting tremendous energy on the defensive end of the floor in an attempt to get back in the game.

Milwaukee also left wondering about the status of its three superstars.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) has yet to play in the series and is out again for Game 4, Damian Lillard was also ruled out with an Achilles injury and Khris Middleton, who finished Game 3 with a career playoff high of 42 points, is playing on a sprained ankle.

Will the Bucks be able to put their devastating Game 3 defeat behind them and flip home-court advantage back in their favor on Sunday? Or will the injuries be too much to overcome?

Bucks vs. Pacers odds

Bucks vs. Pacers prediction

(7:00 p.m. ET, TNT)

Indiana survived a mediocre outing from Pascal Siakam, a poor 3-point shooting performance as a team (26.5%), and a Middleton offensive masterclass en route to a second consecutive win and a 2-1 series lead.

How much better can Milwaukee perform without Giannis and Lillard?

Lillard’s injury reduced him to being a decoy late in regulation and throughout the overtime period. And without Antetokounmpo, rebounding – especially on the offensive end – has been a big issue for Milwaukee in this series.

In Game 3, the Bucks gave up an astounding 19 offensive boards to the Pacers, who had five consecutive at one point in overtime. Those extra possessions led to 32 second-chance points. In a three-point loss, just one or two better efforts on the glass would have made a difference.

After recording back-to-back 35-point, 10-rebound games, Siakam returned to Earth, finishing with 17 points, nine rebounds and four assists on 41.2 percent shooting from the field.

Myles Turner was the player who stepped up on offense for Indiana, providing the most consistent scoring throughout the game with 29 points.

On the other end of the floor, Indiana ran Lillard and the rest of the Bucks’ shooters off the line. In fact, Milwaukee hit just 10 of its 31 3-point attempts, including two buzzer-beating heaves from Middleton and a few highly-contested step-back treys from Lillard.

Bucks vs. Pacers pick

The Bucks didn’t get many easy and clean looks in Game 3, but they hit a fair amount of contested and challenging shots that likely won’t be sustainable on Sunday.

They are at a clear disadvantage with Indiana’s lightning-quick pace, rebounding without Antetokounmpo, and the fact they had to play five extra minutes in an overtime loss after exhausting themselves just trying to get back into the game.

In fact, fatigue in Game 4 might be just as relevant as playing through all of their injuries.

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Additionally, Indiana shot nearly 39 percent from deep on its home floor this season, so we should see a better team shooting performance. Haliburton alone missed 11 of his 12 3-point attempts on Friday. 

Even with the offensive struggles, the momentum heavily favors the Pacers, who got the gritty overtime win they needed to boost their confidence even further.

Don’t expect a close game on Sunday, especially with Lillard and Antetokounmpo out.

Pick:  Pacers -10  (-108, DraftKings)