Lakers vs. Nuggets Game 5 prediction: NBA playoffs odds, picks, best bets for Monday

It took 11 games, but the Lakers finally snapped their losing streak against the Nuggets, winning Game 4, 119-108, at home to keep their playoff hopes alive. 

LeBron James scored the game’s first basket and led his team with 30 points. The Lakers’ win was a wire-to-wire finish, as they finally put together two complete halves.

With Game 5 on Monday night, the series shifts back to Denver as the Nuggets look to deliver the final blow. Denver opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and some sportsbooks are now adjusting the line down to -7. 

While both teams are 2-2 against the spread in the series, another angle has proven to be much more consistent for bettors.

Lakers vs. Nuggets odds

Lakers analysis

Besides winning Game 4, the Lakers did something else they hadn’t done in the series. They finally won the rebounding battle, 46-40, as Anthony Davis led the way with 23 boards.

Los Angeles also got a much-improved performance from point guard D’Angelo Russell, who scored 21 points on 8-of-15 shooting. In Game 3, Russell was practically invisible, failing to register a single point.

One thing that’s not getting enough attention is the job the Lakers are doing defending the perimeter. Since giving up 15 3-pointers to the Nuggets in Game 1, Denver has averaged seven 3-pointers over the next three games.

The Lakers have actually been the better shooting team, ranking second among all teams in the playoffs in field goal percentage (49.9%), while the Nuggets are eighth at 46%.

However, the key stat in this series is that the Lakers have led for 136 minutes and six seconds compared to 41 minutes and 53 seconds for the Nuggets. Yet, somehow, the Lakers find themselves trailing, 3-1. 

Nuggets analysis

When you beat a team 11 straight times, there’s always a chance of some complacency setting in.

The Nuggets have generally outlasted the Lakers, who tend to wear down in the second half of games.

Denver coach Michael Malone is an excellent in-game adjuster, while the jury is still out on the Lakers’ Darvin Ham.

It’s almost like the Nuggets prefer to be a counterpunching team, waiting for the Lakers to reveal their hand before making the necessary changes. As a result, the Nuggets have no reason to lack confidence heading into Game 5 at home. 

After all, they are the defending champions.

Denver will hope to have a healthy Jamal Murray, considering the point guard is on the injury report with a strained left calf.  The good news is that Murray’s status is questionable and not doubtful, so his chances of playing are relatively high.

The bad news is he’s shooting just 38% from the field and 21% from the perimeter in this series. During the regular season, he shot 48.1% from the floor and 42.5% on his 3-pointers.

Lakers vs. Nuggets pick

The NBA is a game of runs, and once the Nuggets get a head of steam, they’re tough to slow down. The Lakers are well aware of this, so getting out to a fast start in these games is imperative.

The big challenge, of course, is sustaining that start over a full 48 minutes. Game 4 should give the Lakers confidence they can put together a complete effort. 

But now they’ll have to replicate that same effort on the road in a hostile environment. There’s also a concern about how they will perform with a more veteran team and the quick turnaround time.

Oh, and by the way, they also have to deal with the altitude in the Mile High City. 

Betting on the NBA?

Nonetheless, while I still lean toward the Lakers as +7.5 underdogs, the better play is to target the Lakers on the first-half spread at +4.5. 

According to our Action Labs database, Los Angeles is a perfect 5-0 against the spread during this postseason, which includes the play-in game against New Orleans.

If you’re going to back the Lakers, it makes sense to do so when they are at their freshest before starting to tire in the latter stages of the game.

Pick: Lakers 1H +4.5 (-118, FanDuel)