MLB prop bets: Picks for Corbin Burnes, CJ Abrams, Jose Altuve

It’s Wednesday and that means there’s baseball scattered throughout the day.

I have a really nice assortment of MLB picks on tap for the evening window. If you’re looking for strikeout or combo hitting prop, or just want to throw a dart at a dinger call, I have you covered.

Let’s dive in.

Wednesday’s top MLB prop bets

Corbin Burnes under 6.5 strikeouts (-138, FanDuel)

Orioles vs. Yankees, 6:35 p.m. ET

The Orioles made a late offseason franchise-altering splash when they acquired Burnes from the Brewers to lead a young pitching staff on a World Series quest. There is no doubt he is still a fantastic pitcher and his underlying numbers back that notion.

But he’s not missing as many bats this season. He absolutely shoved in his O’s debut by serving up 11 strikeouts, but he hasn’t cleared Wednesday’s 6.5 K projection in any of his five appearances since then.

According to Baseball Savant, Burnes’ whiff rate on his cutter and curveball are both down a bit, and those are his two most frequently used pitches. 

There is a huge difference in whiff rate on his curveball, as it was 48.8% last season, and that’s down to 32.1% through six 2024 starts.

Of course, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are always a threat to strike out multiple times, but this is a much different Yankees lineup than in prior years. 

New York is only striking out 19.8% of the time against right-handed pitchers, good for the fifth-best mark in baseball.

CJ Abrams over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-135, BetMGM)

Nationals vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

The left-handed hitting Nationals shortstop is a budding superstar. Contact and speed has never been an issue, but now he’s developing more power.

He’s hitting an unsustainable but ridiculous .406 with just seven strikeouts in 34 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitchers this season. 

Rangers southpaw Andrew Heaney is mostly a fastball-slider pitcher and he’s really starting to lose his “good stuff” at this point of his career.

There are several factors working in Abrams’ favor Wednesday, including:

• The Nationals being guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats as the road team.
• His threat to steal bases; he has seven thefts in nine attempts this season.
• The opposing pitcher; Heaney, who has a 5.02 xFIP and an ERA of 6.26, is striking out just 21.6% of hitters this season, his worst mark in almost a decade.

In this matchup, Abrams should be able to get the job done on Wednesday.

Jose Altuve to hit a home run (+425, BetMGM)

Astros vs. Guardians, 8:10 p.m. ET

Yordan Alvarez’s name will get clicked on the most when it comes to home-run props for the Astros (and for good reason), but I like Wednesday’s odds and matchup for Altuve.

Triston McKenzie is not only pitching with a torn ligament in his elbow, he’s actually throwing surprisingly well. 

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But he’s still a fly-ball pitcher who’s had a few cupcake matchups with the Athletics and White Sox this season. 

McKenzie is throwing his four-seam fastball about 60% of the time, and Altuve owns a 14% barrel rate, with a team-leading .444 ISO against them dating back to the beginning of 2023.

In a much smaller 2024 sample size, he’s absolutely crushing four-seamers, with a 26% barrel rate and a solid 39% fly-ball rate.