NBA
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 5-12-2024
Three games are in the books, and the New York Knicks (2-1; 48-40-3 ATS) hold a series lead over the Indiana Pacers (0-2; 48-40-3 ATS). However, Indiana is undefeated in Gainbridge Fieldhouse this postseason, and that’s the site for game four. Sunday’s showdown is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. EDT. These matchups have been tight. What will happen in this crucial clash?
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Nicked Up Knicks Battling
Injuries have been the main story for New York during the playoffs. This offense is clicking, even while the injuries pile up. Regardless, the Knicks are finding a way to shoot well, as they’ve hit an NBA-best 39.2% of their threes this postseason. That includes over 47.5% in every game of this series. New York is making the most of their open looks. Yet, an oddity for the Knicks in this series is that they only have 30 offensive boards. This is a squad that led the league in offensive rebounding during the 2023-24 campaign. Can they fix that and make their offense unstoppable?
Despite the loss, the Knicks limited Indiana to 111 points in game three, the fewest in this series. That’s encouraging news, even though New York has surrendered more than 110 points in five consecutive contests. This is a team that gave up the second-fewest points per game (108.2) during the regular season. The Knicks were sixth in defensive rebounding percentage, but the Pacers pulled down 13 offensive boards on Friday. New York was the sixth-best team at defending the rim, which has helped them slow down Indiana a bit. They’re also keeping the Pacers off the free throw line after allowing the fourth-fewest attempts this season. Let’s see if they can find more ways to limit Indiana’s offensive output.
Key Injuries – Julius Randle (out); Bojan Bogdanovic (out); Mitchell Robinson (out); OG Anunoby (out)
Pacers Pull Off a Needed Win
Indiana finally held the Knicks under 120 points. Their first win of this series fittingly followed. Still, this Pacers team is allowing 113.1 points and 39.4% three-point shooting in the playoffs. They’ve shored up a defensive rebounding percentage that was 26th in the league, to no avail. Their season-long issue with free throw attempt disparity, mainly because they allowed more than any other team, has persisted. Game three was one of Indiana’s best defensive performances of the playoffs in terms of points allowed. Let’s see how they follow it up.
It’s rare to see Indiana score fewer than 115 points, especially in a win. After all, the Pacers were first in scoring, second in pace, and second in offensive rating this year. So, a win on an off night offensively must feel good for the Pacers. This group is averaging the most points (114.1) and the fewest turnovers (9.6) in the postseason. They’re grabbing more offensive boards per game than they did in the regular season. Now, imagine what would happen if Indiana shot better than 72.0% at the free throw line.
Key Injuries – Benedict Mathurin (out)
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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The injuries are not an issue for the Knicks. New York can not miss from three-point range against this team, hence a 39-80 (48.8%) clip on triples. Until the Pacers can slow that down, expect another tight game.
Indiana is also losing at the free throw line, which is keeping New York in the game. It seems as if the Knicks will eventually dominate the offensive glass as they’re supposed to. Expect another game that comes down to the wire. Take New York against the spread.
Prediction: New York Knicks +5.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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These teams have met six times now and four of them featured more than 235 total points. The Knicks are second in playoff scoring with 111.9 points per game. Indiana is first with 114.1.
So, expect this game to break 220 points. New York is shooting almost 50% from three-point range in this series. Indiana’s field goal percentage (48.7%) is the second-highest of this postseason. Both teams are grabbing at least 10 offensive rebounds in these games. Roll with efficiency and take the over.
Prediction: Over 218
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