NBA front-office officials weigh in on a possible Tom Thibodeau contract extension

Blame the Detroit Pistons — or maybe credit them.

Head coaches around the NBA are making more money than ever. Tom Thibodeau, the leader of the New York Knicks, could be next. And the trend started in Michigan.

Only a year ago, Pistons owner Tom Gores yearned for Monty Williams, but there was one problem: Williams, who had just split up with the Phoenix Suns, wasn’t ready to coach again. The Pistons checked in anyway. Williams registered his disinterest. Yet, just one denial did not deter Detroit.

Gores upped the offer. The next day, Williams was on a private plane from Phoenix to California, ending the evening in Gores’ living room, as The Athletic’s James Edwards wrote. He agreed with the Pistons within the week.

Williams’ reward for so expertly playing hard to get? A six-year, $73 million contract, the largest ever for an NBA coach.

It set the rest of the market aflame.

Not long after Williams agreed with the Pistons, the San Antonio Spurs extended Gregg Popovich, whose former assistant wasn’t about to make more money than a five-time champ. The new contract reportedly earned Popovich $80 million over five years, a new record, albeit in a different category than Williams’ since Popovich also was team president.

But the fire continued to burn.

The Golden State Warriors’ Steve Kerr added two more years to his deal at $35 million, setting a record for average annual value in a coaching contract, $17.5 million a year.

When Erik Spoelstra re-upped in January for a contract that would make Wall Street’s wealthiest stock brokers jealous, no one batted an eye. The Miami Heat were retaining one of the sport’s most respected minds. Doing so would take capital — in this case, $120 million over eight years, the most money ever guaranteed to a coach.

There is a new baseline price for successful head coaches, and it seems to be eight figures.

The Suns signed former champion Mike Budenholzer to a five-year, $50 million contract that almost appears tiny compared to the rest. Ty Lue extended with the LA Clippers for $70 million over five years. The Sacramento Kings tacked three years and $30 million onto 2023 coach of the year Mike Brown’s agreement.

Forget about the coaches; these are paydays that players once dreamed of. Only a decade ago, an up-and-coming star could sign a max contract that would pay him $13.7 million in starting salary. Now, Lue makes more than that. And he’s not the only one.

Soon it could be Thibodeau’s turn.

The Knicks coach is about to enter the final season of a five-year deal he inked in 2020. After the performance the team churned out in 2023-24, winning 50 games and falling one victory short of the Eastern Conference finals despite a slew of injuries, an extension is more likely than not, according to league sources.

It will take a wad of cash to make it happen.

The Athletic recently polled eight front office officials who do not work for the Knicks, asking them what they would deem a fair extension for Thibodeau, who has helped the squad to the playoffs during three of his first four seasons in New York and has won a postseason series during each of the past two.

All eight respondents answered with eight-figure salaries, ranging from $10 million a year to $13.3 million a year. No one said he would not extend Thibodeau, whose current salary is around $7 million a year, according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania.

Two respondents valued Thibodeau at $40 million over four years. The most lucrative per-season response was $40 million over three years, $13.3 million a year.

“He can’t be less than $10 million (a year),” said the person who suggested the highest salary.

The sweet spot for Thibodeau was $12 million a year. Three respondents submitted $48 million over four years. Another said the same, though added he would place a team option on the final season. One person said $36 million over three years, straight up. Another said three for $33 million with bonuses to take it up to $12 million annually.

“He’s in (the facility) all the time,” one of the people who proposed $12 million a year said. “He’s built a culture with the team. He’s done a good job.”

Thibodeau has gone 175-143 in his first four seasons with the Knicks, a .550 winning percentage that ranks sixth in franchise history amongst coaches who have stuck around for more than one season. Once you factor in first-round playoff wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2023 and the Philadelphia 76ers in 2024, the run under Thibodeau rates as the organization’s best since the 1990s. Before him, the Knicks had won just one postseason series since 2000.

The Knicks had reeled off six consecutive sub-.400 seasons at the time they hired Thibodeau in 2020, team president Leon Rose’s first big move after taking over the front office. Rose and Thibodeau were close, connected personally and professionally at CAA, the agency that represents Thibodeau and whose basketball division Rose ran before heading to the Knicks.

The relationship is still tight, even if Thibodeau’s status with the Knicks hasn’t always been rock solid.

There were people inside the front office over the summer of 2022, when New York was coming off a disappointing, 37-win campaign during Thibodeau’s second season, who pushed for a coaching change. The doubters grew more convicted when the Knicks got off to a 10-13 start in the ensuing season. By early December 2022, the Knicks were inching toward a coaching change.

Of course, their fate then flipped. Thibodeau adjusted his rotation, spurring an eight-game winning streak. The team finished 47-35 and disposed of the Cavs in a five-game annihilation that felt like a sweep before falling to the eventual 2023 East champs, the Heat.

The organization believes this past season represented another step forward: 50 wins, a No. 2 seed and a second impressive first-round victory, this time over the Sixers, who were a high-quality No. 7 seed.

Injuries eventually derailed their hopes, leaving the squad too hampered to overcome the Indiana Pacers in Round 2. It’s a theme that the public connects to Thibodeau, given his longtime reputation as a coach who runs his players for too many minutes. Come playoff time, once the Knicks were already short-handed, Josh Hart was playing full games. Others were resting for only short stints.

Of course, this was only after fluke injuries whittled down the available pool.

Julius Randle suffered a dislocated shoulder that ended his season. A defender fell on the foot of Bojan Bogdanović, which forced surgery. Mitchell Robinson re-injured a surgically repaired ankle. In their final playoff game, just for good measure, Jalen Brunson fractured his left hand.

OG Anunoby underwent elbow surgery in the winter, returned from it and then hurt his hamstring during the postseason. Josh Hart played through an abdominal strain in Game 7 against Indiana.

Mention the injuries to most people with the Knicks, though, and they will harp on the hard-nosed culture, one Thibodeau has helped inspire and one that only intensified during this adverse experience.

Players have noted how Thibodeau simplifies the game for them. Isaiah Hartenstein credits his career year to feeling more prepared for games than ever, understanding the nuances of his opponents like never before.

“He’s a great head coach and he’s done an amazing job this year not only dealing with injuries in and out of the lineup but also getting the best out of every single player on our team,” Donte DiVincenzo said before the final game of the regular season. “I’m having a career year. Different guys on the team are having career years.”

The Knicks have bought into Thibodeau’s doggedness, which is no coincidence. The front office has gone out of its way to acquire players who fit the coach’s personality, ones who will fly into the fourth row if they detect the teensiest chance at recovering a loose ball.

“I love the group,” Thibodeau said. “As a coach, you couldn’t ask for a better group.”

Earlier this season, Hartenstein described the culture succinctly.

The center mentioned how many competitive people stacked inside the Knicks’ locker room, guys who are focused in practice, who are locked into the group’s defensive schemes and who reflect Thibodeau’s passion for the game.

“If you’re not like that, you can’t play here,” Hartenstein said.

One of the reasons Brunson signed with the Knicks was because he wanted to play for Thibodeau, who he has known since childhood. He just made his first All-Star and All-NBA teams. Randle was never an awards candidate until he played for Thibodeau. Now he’s a three-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA performer.

The easy part of negotiations is done. New York would like to bring back Thibodeau, and he has made it clear he wants to return.

“The Knicks have been great to me,” Thibodeau said. “This is where I want to be.”

Now, it’s just about the money. And for NBA coaches these days, money is good.

(Photo of Tom Thibodeau: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)