Rangers mailbag, part 2: K’Andre Miller’s development, and is Mika Zibanejad Selke-worthy?

In part 1 of this New York Rangers mailbag, my colleague Peter Baugh examined some lofty trade options, Jacob Trouba’s future and whether breaking up the top line is worth it to get Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad going.

We had some intriguing news since, with the Rangers putting Barclay Goodrow on waivers as a means of getting Goodrow and his $3.642 million cap hit off the books and off to the San Jose Sharks. That move should make the Rangers’ upcoming week, which includes the 2024 NHL Draft and free agency, that much more interesting.

Until then, we’ve got some questions about K’Andre Miller’s development, the future of a couple of highly regarded prospects and whether Zibanejad really does play an elite two-way game — plus a few others.

Here are some Rangers musings to tide us all over until we get into the real offseason excitement in a few days.

Note: Some questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.

Help us determine a prognosis for K’Andre Miller. I see an athletic player with good skating who in theory can join the rush, as well as a player who still makes mental gaffes in the defensive zone, pinches at inopportune times, and has trouble breaking out of the D zone. And: I know he played with Trouba a lot.

What’s his true upside… and will he get there? — Pj E.

This past season for Miller served as a reminder of just how young he is as a defenseman. Making the switch from forward to D as a 17-year-old made sense given his incredible talent but turning that skill into instincts and quick decisions at the NHL level is clearly a process that takes time.

You hear hockey evaluators say a lot that 200 pro games is the minimum you need to see from a defenseman before making a judgment on that player. Miller is at 294 now, with another 43 playoff games (that’s a lot of postseason action for a fourth-year player!), so perhaps his evaluation timeline is longer because he didn’t have much amateur time to grow into his position.

I still think he’s a top-pair guy. And he’s a guy you’d regret moving on from for a long, long time.

Is this next wave of Rangers — Gabe Perreault, Alexis Lafrenière, Brennan Othmann, Brett Berard, Adam Sykora, Kaapo Kakko (hopefully) and Braden Schneider — good enough to supplement/eventually replace our core players? How high are you/the org on these players and being able to drive sustainable success? —Kevin W.

I think the organization has done a very good job following up the previous young wave with some viable prospects, though I think Lafrenière, Kakko and Schneider have graduated up out of the next wave, even if Kakko’s not part of the long-term solution anymore.

Pare it down to Othmann, Berard, Perreault and maybe Sykora — throw in Dylan Garand and Adam Edström, too — and you’ve got at least a few promising players lined up to play NHL games.

I don’t think you’re looking at the bulk of a future core once the veterans age out but I also don’t think the Rangers ever view development that way — they’re the Rangers and they will always be major players for free agents and trade targets. So if you have one potential top-sixer, a few middle-sixers among the forwards, one potential regular defenseman and maybe a goalie prospect, you’re set if you’re them.

All that’s missing at the moment is a D prospect. Drew Fortescue is a ways away and Matthew Robertson’s window seems to be closing after three AHL seasons without much progress. Perhaps that will guide them at the draft this year, though the Rangers’ consistently picking in the back third of the first round (or not until the second or third round) is another reason why they aren’t relying on home-grown talent to become the next core.

Could Gabe Perreault make sense on a line with Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafrenière after one more year of college? (Richard T Gagnon / Getty Images)

The “stay or go” article basically implied that everyone will likely stay other than the super-obvious UFAs. Does that suggest they will enter the season without a legitimate top six RW for the fourth year running under Drury’s tenure? There seems to be this blanket excuse for Drury that he’s unable to make moves to improve the team because it’s just too hard to be an NHL GM.

Will there be an effort to modernize the defense? The team struggled badly at 5v5 because their D is incapable of advancing the play, but it was implied there will be no changes despite their captain becoming an $8 million third-pair defenseman and Lindgren already in decline at 26. — Zach V.

We’ve definitely had some movement since Zach sent this one in! Goodrow’s departure created some cap space but the heart of this question is still valid — the Rangers don’t appear to be ready to make major changes to their defense corps, absent a Trouba move.

Even deciding to move on from Ryan Lindgren wouldn’t move the needle a ton, but it would give the Rangers maybe $3.5 million more in cap space for the coming season and create a pretty glaring hole on the left side of the top four. Unless Drury has a very specific replacement for Lindgren in mind and/or is willing to pay up for Brady Skjei or Nikita Zadorov, this year may not be the time to make big changes on D.

If they essentially stay the course, there may be ways to alter the on-ice look. More Miller-Adam Fox time would help, as would making Trouba the permanent No. 5 D-man and living with some growing pains of a Miller-Schneider pair.

What is Chytil’s role in 2024-2025? Could (healthy) Chytil or Laf be the answer on the 1st line or will Peter Laviolette have the fortitude to break up Kreider and Mika? If 1RW is filled internally, who can the Rangers bring in to make the third line more formidable? Also, have teams ever successfully traded big-name players with NMCs? Is that even a thing? — Justin L.

Following up on the previous question — perhaps Laviolette sees a fit with Filip Chytil on the wing of one of the top two lines. For me, a third line of Will Cuylle-Chytil-Kakko is a much bigger asset to this team, especially if Zibanejad doesn’t rebound with a bigger 5v5 season in ’24-25. Or maybe it’s Cuylle-Chytil-Othmann, which could be a real fun one to watch grow.

The Rangers’ best moments with a healthy Chytil have come with him centering a third line that gives opposing teams’ depth players fits. I’d rather go back to that than have to cobble together a bottom six with a bunch of one-year 30-somethings.

As for the second question: It has happened but usually only when the player wants to be moved. Trading a player who doesn’t want to leave and has a no-move? Almost impossible.

When is Perrault arriving and which linemates give him the best chance to succeed? — Michael K.

I’d think one more year in college is enough for Perreault. If he were 30 pounds heavier, I think he’d have been pushing to turn pro this summer, but he’s got a smart team around him between his father, Boston College and his agent, so everyone seemed to understand that another NCAA year wouldn’t hurt, especially with the Rangers being where they are.

So he finishes his college career next April, comes up to ride along for a playoff run and then … let’s say he makes the Rangers in ’25-26. Panarin’s in the final year of his deal. Maybe putting Perreault with Vincent Trocheck and Lafrenière is what you want? Would he start in more of a third-line role with Chytil (or some as-yet-unnamed center) and Cuylle on the right?

Two years is a long way off in the Rangers’ life cycle.

There were rumblings in the past about Drury’s feelings about Panarin’s playoff performance. Any such noise this time around? Does Edmonton’s top guys also having trouble scoring against Florida mitigate any of that? — Jason S.

Based on some conversations with people in the Rangers’ orbit the last three years, I’d say Drury would have been OK to move on from Panarin on Day 1 of his GM stint, but here we are. You can’t discount what Panarin’s done in his four seasons, even if he’s not going to be the player who single-handedly lifts the team to playoff victories — honestly, they only have one guy like that on the roster and he’s in net.

Maybe no one has a guy like that except the team in Edmonton. That could just be how this crazy game works.

You live with some of the lows because the highs are so important to this team. Panarin’s 2023-24 was one of the top seasons in team history. If he can get close to that again in 2024-25, perhaps you look for something better at the deadline rather than something complementary, knowing he isn’t going to put the team on his back in the playoffs.

Is it more likely that Othmann makes the team this year, or that he is used as a chip in a trade deal? I’d love to see the kid have a real opportunity to prove himself on the team, but seeing how Kakko’s value has steadily decreased since he joined the team has made me think about trading Othmann while his value is at an all-time high. I imagine there are many GMs who would be eager to make a deal that includes a top 5 AHL scoring rookie and a #2 pick who is still young and in need of a new look. — James R.

Trading Kakko now would likely be a move to simply open up a roster spot. I don’t think you’re getting much value back for him, so if the Rangers would rather spend that $2.4 million elsewhere, that’s the determining factor for me. Othmann has more value, of course, but I think the Rangers would rather see what he can do for them before seeing what he’d bring back in a trade — unless you’re trying to get Nikolaj Ehlers or someone along that line, young and elite.

In your view, how good is Mika defensively? We always say he’s “Selke-level” and by the eye test, he is there. But he’s never considered for Selke or on the shortlist. Is he a top tier defensive forward? — Adam M.

I find now, with the data that’s available, it’s a lot easier to sift through and find good Selke Trophy candidates outside the usual suspects — not to say that Patrice Bergeron and now Aleksander Barkov aren’t deserving winners, but more that you can find top forwards who stack up favorably to those elite two-way players.

One of the data points I look at to help me find a dozen or so initial Selke candidates is what Clear Sight calls Expected Goals Plus/Minus — basically, the on-ice xG number for each player based on how many high- and mid-danger scoring chances occur when they’re on the ice. A big positive gap tells me the player is helping to generate way more than he gives up; couple that with being a top 5v5 forward in terms of time on ice and it’s a nice data point to have.

Zibanejad had a plus-12.97 xG rating in 2022-23, around 30th for centers that season. Two years ago, it was plus-12.59. In 2023-24, the number dipped to plus-0.44 xG. It was far from an elite defensive season for Zibanejad, which we could definitely see with our eyes as well.

So yes, I think he’s up there, but 2024-25 has to be a bounce-back season for Zibanejad.

Edström seems to be the forgotten man when we speak of the next generation. What is your read on his potential? — Jay B.

I think he’s a very viable candidate for the 4C spot or at least the 4LW spot to open the 2024-25 season. He didn’t get much of a look last season but only because Goodrow and Jimmy Vesey slid down the depth chart with the deadline additions. If the Rangers start next season with Vesey-Edström-Matt Rempe or something similar, that’s a different wrinkle to their fourth line than in years past, and one worth giving a look.

(Top photo of K’Andre Miller and Mika Zibanejad: Brad Penner / USA Today)