Analysis, fits for all 58 NBA Draft picks from John Hollinger and Sam Vecenie

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The 2024 NBA Draft is underway — taking place over two days — and The Athletic’s draft experts Sam Vecenie and John Hollinger are analyzing each pick as it happens. Here you will find their take on all 58 picks, from Zaccharie Risacher going No. 1 to the Hawks to the last guy off the board.

1. Atlanta Hawks

Zaccharie Risacher | 6-foot-9 wing/forward | 19 years old | JL Bourg

Vecenie’s ranking: 5

I was not a fan of Zaccharie Risacher entering this season, but he clearly improved his jumper over the summer, which helped open up his game. Risacher was streaky this year, starting out very hot before making just 22.8 percent of his 3s from Jan. 31 to the end of April. Then, he closed the season incredibly well in the playoffs. If he’s not a knockdown shooter, his offensive role becomes more difficult to project. However, he’s shown enough touch with the way the ball comes out of his hand to continue developing his consistency there in spot-up situations, if not off movement or in pull-up situations. If, at a minimum, he can hit open-up spot 3s, cut off the ball and defend, then he’d become a difference-making starter if any of his on-ball skill improves as he grows into his frame. Teams that believe he can add functional strength and a bit more athletic juice have reason to take him in the top five. Those who are less sure of his long-term shooting development may think the floor is too low to risk such a high pick. Still, Risacher is seen as one of the safest players in the draft because of his intersection of size, defense and shooting. Look across the playoffs, and you can see why these players are so valuable.

Hollinger’s analysis: I wasn’t nearly as high on Risacher as some others — I had him 13th on my board — but I will say the fit here makes sense. Saddiq Bey is a free agent and tore his ACL, and De’Andre Hunter is stretched as a starter and has become perennial trade bait. Pairing Risacher and Jalen Johnson at the two forward spots is a decade-long solution if Risacher hits.

It’s a pretty big statement on the quality of this draft, however, to consider that, if Atlanta gets around to trading either Trae Young or Dejounte Murray, it will likely dwarf this draft selection in terms of the reverberations on the franchise.

2. Washington Wizards

Alexandre Sarr | 7-0 forward/center | 19 years old | Perth Wildcats

Vecenie’s ranking: 1

Alexandre Sarr is the highest-upside player in the 2024 NBA Draft class. He has enormous positional size, even at center. He is an elite defender who impacts games at the rim, midrange and 3-point line with his athletic fluidity. With his strong instincts and fundamentals on that end, he has the potential to be a perennial All-Defense level player if things break right. Offensively, there are serious concerns about the level his game can reach. His jumper needs to continue making strides, and his finishing through contact must keep improving. Ultimately, the key will be Sarr’s strength and growth. If he grows into his frame more and becomes more physical, Sarr is the best bet in the class to become a future All-Star. His skill set is tantalizing; it’s harder than ever to find bigs who can be elite defenders while also thriving as perimeter-oriented offensive players in an NBA that cares more about floor-spacing than ever before. Sarr’s archetype is valuable, as seen by the successes of Chet Holmgren, Victor Wembanyama and even, to a lesser extent, players such as Myles Turner in Indiana. He is not quite at the level of prospect that Wembanyama or Holmgren were, but he’s still an excellent prospect worth investing in. The downside for Sarr is something in the ballpark of Nic Claxton, while his upside is an All-Star-caliber big. To me, he offers the best range of outcomes in this down 2024 class.

Hollinger’s analysis: No surprise here as Sarr goes to the Wizards, and yet it’s the next draft that might already be the focus. Washington already made a huge move in dealing away Deni Avdija today, and Kyle Kuzma might be next in the Sag for Flagg movement.

As with Risacher above, you can’t argue with the fit – the Wizards had no viable rotation centers, and Sarr’s defensive ceiling could make up for some of the wholesale shortcomings across the rest of the roster. The question will be whether he provides enough offensive juice to justify his lofty selection.

3. Houston Rockets

Reed Sheppard | 6-2 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky

Vecenie’s ranking: 2

By the numbers, Reed Sheppard was one of the most important players in college basketball this season. His individual statistics tell you a lot, but no number that says more than this one: 29.5. Kentucky was that many points per 100 possessions better when Sheppard was on the court versus when he was not. The Wildcats had a 129.9 offensive rating with him on the court versus a 113.6 rating with him off it. They had a 108.5 defensive rating with him on the court versus a 121.7 rating without him. Those numbers were not propped up by overlapping minutes with others: Sheppard’s 29.5 on/off net rating for Kentucky was nearly 20 points better than anyone else on the team. He drove positive, winning play for them. I bet he will in the NBA, too. Players who think the game and shoot like Sheppard have reliably proven to outperform their athletic tools and measurements in the modern NBA. They have too many ways to become good players even if parts of their games don’t translate. Even if Sheppard cannot play point guard full-time, his team could put him next to an elite wing on-ball playmaker and take advantage of the floor-spacing and shooting he’ll provide. Even if Sheppard isn’t always able to collapse defenders, he’ll make early hit-ahead and extra kickout passes to keep defenses in rotation. He’s too far ahead of what his opponent presents him. He shares some similarities to Lonzo Ball coming out of UCLA or Tyrese Haliburton coming out of Iowa State. Ball’s size made him project as a better defender, but his presence on the court, once he figured out how to shoot, was immensely positive. Haliburton has struggled on defense, but his gravity and passing ability allows him to dominate games. It’s difficult for basketball savants who are also elite shooters to fail. Sheppard’s measurements may put that theory to the test, but I’m betting on him being the kind of guy who helps teams win, be it as a star if everything goes right or as a role player if it doesn’t.

Hollinger’s analysis: This pick had been rumored to be available for trade, but it appears Houston couldn’t find the offer it wanted and zoomed in on Sheppard. He’s a great fit for a team that struggled with shooting last season and a player I had rated very highly regardless of destination. I could easily see him outperforming the first two picks.

4. San Antonio Spurs

Stephon Castle | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Connecticut

Vecenie’s ranking: 3

Stephon Castle is polarizing this year because of his jumper. If you believe the touch he’s shown from the free-throw line and around the rim will translate and you think his mechanics are workable, you will probably be higher on him. If you think he doesn’t have enough of a baseline level as a shooter, you probably rank him in the later portion of the lottery. Castle is my No. 3 player this year because I buy his jumper improving in time, and if it does, he has as much upside as any player in this class. He’s a potential big initiator who can already pass and is comfortable in ball screens. He’s elite on defense and has already showed that he can play a high level role on a winning team. His floor is as a contributor who helps you win important games, even in the NBA, due to his defensive prowess and on-ball ability. If his jumper ever develops, he’s one of the few players in this class with a realistic All-Star ceiling. He’s an uncertain bet, but there are no sure things in this class. Castle is a player who could pay off most if things turn out well, but he also has a higher-end floor if it doesn’t.

Hollinger’s analysis: I guess the idea of pairing Donovan Clingan with Victor Wembanyama was a smoke screen. I had Castle second on my board and really like the fit in San Antonio, where the Spurs need to upgrade their perimeter talent on both sides of the ball. Castle also will likely get plenty of chances to play on the ball given the Spurs’ dearth of point guard talent, which is notable given his stated preference of playing the point. His shooting is a question, but his ability to guard immediately and his high long-term ceiling make this a great pick. The Spurs have another selection at No. 8, by the way, so stay tuned.

5. Detroit Pistons

Ron Holland | 6-7 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite

Vecenie’s ranking: 10

I’ve changed my evaluation of Ron Holland more than any other player in this class. I often struggle to project players like Holland who haven’t demonstrated consistent feel for the game. His shooting is an issue; he’s willing to take them, but he made just 24 percent and must clean up his mechanics. However, he possesses a ton of basketball character, and it shows in how he attacks the game. He’s the ultimate loose-ball guy. His energy is infectious. He plays incredibly hard and competes all the time. On top of that, he’s a remarkable athlete with functional burst on the ground and foundational strength to avoid getting dislodged. Even if his shooting and feel don’t come around and he doesn’t turn into a star, could he play a similar role as Aaron Gordon, doing all of the dirty work around the court to help teams win? Holland’s G League season made people forget that he has won every single place he’d been prior to that. He’s willing to do the stuff other players don’t want to do. In the end, there are a lot of outs for wings with his mix of production, effort competitiveness, so I kept him in my top 10.

Hollinger’s analysis: Yes! I love it! Holland was the No. 1 guy on my board, and I was absolutely perplexed that he was falling so far in mock draft world when his output at G League Ignite was superior to that of several other recent lottery picks. Holland may struggle out of the gate as he works on his shooting and half-court reads, but the Pistons shouldn’t be in win-now mode and badly need a second wing creator to help Cade Cunningham. This is a great pick to start off the Trajan Langdon era in Detroit.

6. Charlotte Hornets

Tidjane Salaun | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | Cholet

Vecenie’s ranking: 11

Tidjane Salaun is the wild card of this year’s draft class. His movement fluidity at 6-9 is remarkable. While he’s not overly explosive, his ability to maintain his balance at that size as a teenager is impressive. He also flashes some serious skills that make one wonder how high his upside lies. On top of that, he plays hard. There’s a confidence to his actions on the court. It’s easy to buy into him becoming a good player at some point because he seems to care and is always engaged on the court. Yet it’s also clear Salaun is not ready to play effectively in the NBA at this stage. He struggled at times to be a positive player in a French league for the first two thirds of the season. His jumper has potential, but it’s not there yet. His handle is loose. The passing flashes are there, but they’re just flashes. Defensively, he’s active and energetic, but it’s a mixed bag at this moment even with the in-season improvement. Teams must parse through a lot here, so Salaun won’t be for everyone. Teams with strong developmental track records who are willing to put in multiple years of effort could come away with a terrific player down the road. Just don’t expect immediate results in his rookie season.

Hollinger’s analysis: This has been rumored in the days leading up to the draft. I like Salaun’s upside but see it as more speculative — I had him 16th on my board, so taking him at No. 6 without trading down feels like a reach. Meanwhile, I get that Donovan Clingan would have overlapped with incumbent Mark Williams, but that’s a pretty bold move to pass up Clingan.

The other question this pick brings up — is this a sign the Hornets don’t think they’ll keep Miles Bridges in free agency?

7. Portland Trail Blazers

Donovan Clingan | 7-2 center | 20 years old | Connecticut

Vecenie’s ranking: 4

It’s hard not to see Donovan Clingan turning into at least an average starting center in the NBA when he’s on the court. He has All-Defense-caliber upside. He’s utterly enormous and is elite at executing drop pick-and-roll coverage. He takes up an immense amount of space in the lane and his sheer presence should give his team strong defensive minutes around the rim. I also think there’s more to Clingan offensively than meets the eye. He’s a sharp passer and playmaker away from the rim, sees the court well and is a strong screener. His presence on the court will help everyone else on the team in subtle ways. I don’t expect him to display the scoring or playmaking upside of someone like Domantas Sabonis, so it’s hard to project All-Star outcomes for Clingan. Even Gobert is a stretch, as he’s more mobile than Clingan ever will be on defense. But I think Clingan can settle in just below that tier and maybe sniff an All-Star Game if things break right, like Jarrett Allen did back in 2022. The keys for Clingan are staying healthy and maintaining his conditioning — two things that have gone together for him over the last two years. If he’s able to stay on the court, he’ll have a valuable NBA career that has a good chance to return top-five value in this class.

Hollinger’s analysis: Put in your offers for Deandre Ayton, everyone! Hello … hello? Anyone there? With or without an incumbent center under contract, Clingan was pretty clearly the best prospect left on the board, and there was no way Portland could pass up this kind of value proposition. And hey, Ayton only has two years left on his deal.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves (via trade with Spurs)

Robert Dillingham | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky

Vecenie’s ranking: 15

How one evaluates Robert Dillingham depends on how much one values scoring touch and the ability to separate from defenders. I know evaluators who work for NBA teams who value his scoring upside so much that they have Dillingham as a top-five prospect. That potential, mixed with his passing improvements, have Dillingham believers thinking he could be the best overall offensive player in this class. They have a point — his offensive tools are special. However, the difference between Dillingham and someone like Tyrese Maxey — another speed/touch-based Kentucky guard — is 35 pounds. Maxey is so much more physical than Dillingham; even at Kentucky, the 76ers’ All-Star guard weighed nearly 200 pounds and took bumps well. That ability to play through contact — which Maxey had and Dillingham does not — is critical to NBA success. Trae Young and Ja Morant are the only sub-175-pound, non-lengthy prospects who have become starter-level playmakers in the NBA in the last decade. I don’t think that Dillingham has the one-of-one athleticism of Morant or the passing ability of Young. Dejounte Murray was 170 pounds when he entered the NBA but is 6-5. Dennis Schröder was 6-1 and about 170 pounds, but he had a 6-8 wingspan. Mike Conley was 5-11 without shoes but has a 6-6 wingspan. To succeed, then, Dillingham will have to be an outlier. He has the skills to do it, which is why I still have a top-15 grade on him. I trust he will get buckets. But given his defensive issues, it was hard for me to put him higher than the back-third of the lottery. His size and defensive deficiencies might resign him to being more of a great sixth man. If that’s the role he ends up filling, I’d bet on him winning a Sixth Man of the Year award at some point.

Hollinger’s analysis: I had Dillingham eighth on my board, so this isn’t exactly a surprise, but if he’s headed to Minnesota as rumored, that is quite a development. Dillingham is an offensive creator who, if he hits, solves one of Minnesota’s biggest existential problems: The succession at point guard beyond 36-year-old Mike Conley. But the Wolves are also a win-now team; how much can he immediately help?

9. Memphis Grizzlies

Zach Edey | 7-4 center | 22 years old | Purdue

Vecenie’s ranking: 17

Zach Edey has continually proved everyone wrong at every level. He was stuck behind everyone at IMG. He was outside of the top-300 as a recruit. His ability to transition to the NBA has been doubted. Yet here we are, two National Player of the Year seasons later, and Edey keeps getting better. He’s in unbelievable shape for a player his size in a way that allows him to take full advantage of his gifts. He has skills that will work in the NBA. He’s going to be a killer rebounder, monster screener and will consistently establish his position even against some of the stronger NBA players. I’m not saying he’ll seal off Joel Embiid every time down the court, but most big 7-foot or shorter will have issues dealing with his length and strength. His pro success comes down to continuing to improve his movement ability and continuing to maximize his ability to get up and down the court on defense. He needs to not let ball handlers turn the corner on him in drop coverage and maintain extremely tight angles.

I’m done doubting Edey, even as an NBA player. He’s exceptionally tough, and intel suggest his worth ethic is excellent. He’s an unbelievable competitor who desperately wants to win. He plays with an edge that allows him to overcome a lot of the perceived deficiencies of his game. I can’t quite shake the questions I have on his ability to significantly impact the playoffs, so I couldn’t quite get him into the lottery. But I think he carves out an NBA role and sticks around for a while.

Hollinger’s analysis: Zach Kleiman didn’t trade up! Should we have a ceremony to mark this occasion? It’s also a bit of a surprise that the Grizzlies reached for Edey with the ninth pick; certainly filling the center position was a need for Memphis, but the Grizzlies also had holes on the perimeter that could have been filled by the likes of Devin Carter or Matas Buzelis. It will be interesting to see how Edey’s plodding style fits in with a Memphis team that likes to push the pedal to the metal.

10. Utah Jazz

Cody Williams | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Colorado

Vecenie’s ranking: 6

It’s disappointing that Cody Williams picked up his ankle injury right as he started to come into his own during a 10-game stretch in January and February. Typically, freshmen improve over the course of the season, but NBA teams never got the chance to see that with Williams, even after he returned to the court for the stretch run. It’s easy to buy into his upside as a developmental wing with length, functional athleticism and foundational stretch that should continue to improve as he ages. He’s an excellent driver with potential to be the type of dangerous dribble/pass/shoot wing teams desperately want to acquire. However, it’s also easy to view him as a significant project if his jumper isn’t as far along as his college percentages indicate. It’s going to take time for him to grow into his frame and add more strength. How long will that take? Can he continue to develop as a shooter to the point he becomes a genuine pull-up threat? If those two questions end with positive answers, he will be one of the best players in this class. If not, he becomes a riskier late-lottery pick.

Hollinger’s ranking: We’re getting very much into the speculative part of the board in a weak draft class. Williams has the length and athleticism to play the wing in the NBA and showed flashes of skill in his one season at Colorado, but realistically, he’s a developmental player who needs to fill out his body, work on his pull-up game and hone the rest of his craft to make an NBA-level impact.

11. Chicago Bulls

Matas Buzelis | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite

Vecenie’s ranking: 12

Like a lot of the players above him, Matas Buzelis’ success will come down to two swing areas. The first one is the frame, which has a long way to go before it fills out. I don’t think he’ll end up playing many NBA minutes next season because of that. He has a lot of long-term upside to fill a much-needed player archetype if he fills out, but front offices are mixed on whether that will happen. Nobody doubts Buzelis’ work ethic, though; he’s a competitor who demonstrates a desire to be great. The second swing skill for Buzelis is his jumper. His shot isn’t broken, but he’s only had one distinctly positive shooting stretch (his season at Sunrise Christian). Is that an aberration, or is it a signal that he has room to grow? It’s difficult to tell with teenagers. I don’t see him regularly shooting off movement, but I think there’s a good chance he will learn to be a proficient spot-up 3-point shooter, especially with his work ethic. If he shoots well and his frame fills out, he has a chance of becoming a terrific pro. His defensive instincts off the ball are uncommon, and his work in the open floor shows his playmaking potential. But if his frame and shooting don’t come around, his floor is quite low. I ended up with him in my top tier and moved him around my rankings more than any other player. Still, I couldn’t place him outside of my top-seven because I just believe in his work ethic mixed with his tools.

Hollinger’s analysis: Chicago’s Lithuanian GM selects a Chicago-born and bred player of Lithuanian heritage. Buzelis was slated by most to go higher than this, and his game should fit what the Bulls need in terms of versatile, floor-spacing wings quite nicely. Don’t worry about those 3-point percentages last year — his shot is much better than that, trust me. The next question in Chicago might be how high the Bulls are now willing to go to keep restricted free agent Patrick Williams, a previous Bulls’ first-rounder who offers a similar theoretical skill set.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Nikola Topić | 6-6 guard | 18 years old | Crvena Zvezda

Vecenie’s ranking: 13

Nikola Topić has a lot of upside, especially if you really believe in the work he did on the ball in his 13 games to start the year for Mega. But using a top-five pick on a 13-game sample, especially when his games with Red Star were much more pedestrian, is a huge bet for any lead decision-maker in a front office. That person would need to trust that what they saw was reality and not the construct of a Mega offense that also allowed Nikola Djurišić to get loose as a scorer following Topić’s transfer back to Red Star. If his ability to separate against NBA-level athletes doesn’t come through and his jumper off the catch doesn’t get there, what is he then? Is he even a starter? As an enormous ballhandler with serious touch and incredible vision as a passer, Topić is clearly an NBA player, even if it doesn’t all translate. But his floor is lower than all the other top guys in this class because his sample of strong play is so small — even if that resume includes him winning MVP of the Under18 European championships last summer. In a class with precious little upside to find, I would understand having Topic in the top five, even. But between the small sample of great play and the knee injury he suffered late in the year, I ended up with a late-lottery grade.

Hollinger’s analysis: Man, the Thunder are nothing if not patient. Topić will likely miss most or all of the season with a knee injury, but Oklahoma City decided it can afford to wait. I would loosely describe the scouting report on him as “Vasa Micić except he’s good”; Topić will need to improve his shooting and defense, but he is a big guard who can get downhill and make plays and at worst should be able to commandeer the second unit behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

13. Sacramento Kings

Devin Carter | 6-2 guard | 22 years old | Providence

Vecenie’s ranking: 7

Devin Carter is one of my favorites in this draft class. His basketball character is off the charts. He’s an unbelievable competitor and possesses an insatiable work ethic that enabled his year-over-year improvements going back to high school. He’s an awesome defender who will be switchable and aggressive at the point of attack across the perimeter; those traits should be even more valuable if the NBA and its officials continue to allow as much physicality as they have since February. He reads the game very well, drastically improved as a shooter and has enough touch to believe he will continue to make long-range attempts even if his motion looks funky. He’s an elite athlete, too, who does all the little things one could ask of a player. I have a lottery grade on him and think he turns into the kind of guy every coach demands their front office pick up in the offseason.

Hollinger’s analysis: I can hardly imagine a better outcome for Sacramento in terms of fit, need and ability. I had Carter 10th on my board, and the Kings desperately needed backcourt depth. Additionally, he’s further along developmentally than most of the other players in this range, fitting in with a Kings timeline that is definitely focused on the now. The draft board fell very kindly for them tonight.

14. Washington Wizards (via Blazers)

Carlton “Bub” Carrington | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | Pittsburgh

Vecenie’s ranking: 8

Bub Carrington does a lot of things that NBA guards are asked to do at an extremely high level. He is a real dribble-pass-shoot threat with awesome ballscreen instincts as one of the youngest players in the class. He is a tremendous shot-maker as a pull-up scorer already. As a passer and playmaker, he sees the court well and clearly knows how to read the defense. I’m a buyer on him as a shooter off the ball long-term, too. It’s hard to be this good of a shooter in college as an 18year-old pull-up threat and not become a real spot-up guy. I don’t think he’s quite as quick as someone like Coby White, but there are a lot of similarities with their games coming out of college. I also think there are similarities with White with what should be expected of Carrington in terms of timeline. I don’t think he’ll be all that successful in the NBA in his first year. He will likely be inefficient if he’s asked to play serious minutes. He’s still growing into his frame and struggles to generate easy shots for himself. But if he’s given time and a runway for the first two years, continues to make strides on defense and keeps working on his shot prep off the ball, I think he’s going to be an incredibly successful pro. It took White until the end of his fourth year to be able to efficiently and effectively attack NBA defenses. Then this season, his fifth, he was a 21-point-per-game scorer in his final 60 games. Carrington needs some time to develop, but I would feel good betting on his starter upside.

Hollinger’s analysis: The Wizards got this pick from Portland in the Deni Avdija trade. I like Carrington to a point — he’s really young and has a solid skill level — but this high feels like a reach. There was just nothing easy in his game tape – layups, steals, etc. — even that the college level, and I’m worried that will only magnify in the pros. Will he ever be able to touch the paint? If not, he’s leaning pretty heavily on becoming a lights-out shooter to function at the NBA level.

15. Miami Heat

Kel’el Ware | 7-0 center | 20 years old | Indiana

Vecenie’s ranking: 26

Kel’el Ware isn’t an easy evaluation because he has all the tools you look for in a modern-day big. He’s 7-foot with an enormous wingspan that allows him to be a rim protector and tremendous finisher on the interior. It’s hard to find bigs who can genuinely space the floor, and Ware certainly has potential to do that. But, man, it’s just hard for me to get past the feel-for-the-game issues on both ends. His engagement and motor, despite improvement this year, are still worries. I buy his talent, but I worry that he ends up in the Christian Wood zone — an incredibly talented player who doesn’t consistently help NBA teams win games. I wouldn’t want Wood on my team, and I felt a lot of similar vibes watching Ware. The good news for Ware? There’s still time. He’s only 20 and he can grow beyond what his tape showed this season. Ware has all the tools to become a starting NBA center. Plus, he’s on a positive trajectory in terms of being more engaged than he was at Oregon, and people around him do genuinely like him as a person. I ended up with a late-first-round grade. His upside is that of a lottery player, but the floor is lower than I’d like to see for that kind of pick.

Hollinger’s analysis: Ware’s occasional on-court lethargy doesn’t exactly scream #HeatCulture, but he fills a need for a backup five who can score … one Miami fairly unsuccessfully attempted to fill last offseason with Thomas Bryant and Orlando Robinson. Stylistically, Ware’s ability to play on the perimeter also lets the Heat play more of a five-out style, and he could share the court with Bam Adebayo at times because of it.

16. Philadelphia 76ers

Jared McCain | 6-2 guard | 19 years old | Duke

Vecenie’s ranking: 14

The guys who have tended to exceed their draft position offensively in recent years have tended to either be elite in terms of creativity or be great shooters who can play through contact. Jared McCain is absolutely the latter, and his production at his age is not something to be ignored. He has a strong 200-pound frame, and the intel on McCain isn’t just good; it’s elite. He ticks every single box from a character perspective and is known to be excellent in terms of work ethic — both in the gym and in the weight room. There’s every reason to buy into him continuing to grow from this already strong starting point. At the very least, you’re getting a great shooter whom you know will come in and make 3s. He also has more scoring ability beyond that, too. He’s a sneaky bet to average 20 points per game in the NBA at some point. He has more juice than someone like Seth Curry, to whom he is often compared. I also like his defensive tape more than many of the smaller guards in this class. I have McCain as a lottery pick, and I’d imagine that I’ll be higher on him than most in this class.

Hollinger’s analysis: McCain doesn’t scream upside but definitely fills a role in Philadelphia with his perimeter shooting; the hope is that he can develop enough playmaking that he can be a full-time point guard and not an undersized 2. The more interesting part of this pick, obviously, is who Philadelphia didn’t take – the win-now Sixers valued McCain higher than Tennessee sharpshooter Dalton Knecht, who has slipped further than many expected.

17. Los Angeles Lakers

Dalton Knecht | 6-5 wing | 23 years old | Tennessee

Vecenie’s ranking: 9

Dalton Knecht is this draft’s most ready-made NBA scorer. He’ll be able to step in immediately and space the floor for his teammates and knock down shots. On top of that, he’s a good athlete who can attack closeouts. He’s also a professional cutter who runs well out of actions. Having said that, where you think Knecht’s upside sits focuses on two areas. First, what level do you think his athleticism will allow him to reach on defense? Can he become a non-liability? Can he be an average player? He plays on that end as if he cares, so that is promising. There’s upside given his quickness and athleticism. But early on, it might be rough. Second, where do you think he can get to as an on-ball playmaker? Can he blend passing with his scoring better? Can he keep developing his craft in ball screens and handoffs?

The more I watched him, the more I thought that the scheme he lands in will be important to accessing that on-ball upside. Knecht can help anyone in the NBA immediately as a shooter. But to get the most out of him, the key is to put him in an offense that runs a ton of sets, allows him to play off movement and uses the threat of his jumper in the way Tennessee did this year. Utah at No. 10 stands out as a great spot with Will Hardy running a lot of different actions to get shooters free. He would excel in Miami’s scheme under Erik Spoelstra, whose offense would allow him to flow into the types of ball screen and handoff actions where he found success this year with Tennessee. No matter what, I see Knecht as a successful rotation player because of the shooting. But the upside is a bit more situationally based if you’re looking at him as a top-10 pick. Realistically, where I’d rank him if I was working for a team would be extremely dependent on the kind of offense I planned to run. There are teams I’d have him ranked in the top-five for in this class.

Hollinger’s analysis: The Lakers get a JJ Redick clone! In all seriousness, if they weren’t trading the pick, then Knecht was a pretty obvious pick for a team that is both desperate for shooting help and on a win-now timeline. The Lakers have to feel pretty good he fell this far and didn’t leave them making a more speculative choice. Knecht’s theoretical upside is more limited than some other players in this range, but the Lakers can’t wait.

18. Orlando Magic

Tristan da Silva | 6-8 wing | 23 years old | Colorado

Vecenie’s ranking: 18

I understand the worries about Tristan da Silva’s lack of explosiveness or strength, but he’s still one of my favorite players in the draft and someone I rate higher than consensus. I had him as a first-rounder all season, even prior to his NCAA Tournament breakout. He impacts the game in so many ways that have potential to impact winning basketball positively. He is a 6-8 wing/forward hybrid with legitimate positional size and fluidity, traits every NBA team is seeking. He knocks down nearly 40 percent of his 3s. He can handle the ball and make good passing decisions. He processes the game well and plays it at a high tempo even if he lacks great athletic tools himself. He isn’t an elite defender, but he’s smart, can guard his position and is a sharp team defender. Given the skills NBA teams value now, da Silva ticks a lot of boxes for a solid rotation player. He’s not likely to be a star, but his well-rounded game can make him effective as a fourth or fifth option next to other stars.

Hollinger’s analysis: Is this Jett Howard 2.0? Da Silva can shoot, but I’m not sure he can play, which is why I had da Silva 51st on my board. I realize some other folks had him higher, so maybe I’m just way off here, but the other issue is that he has no realistic pathway to ever starting based on the composition of Orlando’s roster. I would have looked at Johnny Furphy first for the same positional skill set or grabbed a guard like Ja’Kobe Walter.

19. Toronto Raptors

Ja’Kobe Walter | 6-4 wing | 19 years old | Baylor

Vecenie’s ranking: 23

I want to like Ja’Kobe Walter more than I do because I’m a big fan of prospects with legitimate size, length and shooting ability. Walter is the kind of physical archetype a team can sell itself on physically playing off the ball next to a primary shot creator, then potentially cross-match to annoy the opponent’s best on-ball players on the other end of the floor. However, he’s not there as an on-ball defender yet. Maybe he can improve — we’ve seen guys with this body type make that kind of leap before — but he has a long way to go. That deficit is on top of him not being a monster athlete, high-level passer or effective driver. I have a first-round grade on Walter because I believe in him becoming an excellent shotmaker given his adeptness off movement. But to be a difference-maker rather than just an NBA rotation player, he must make a defensive leap.

Hollinger’s analysis: Walter was arguably the best player available in raw terms and also fills a potential roster void at shooting guard if Gary Trent Jr. leaves in free agency and Bruce Brown, as many expect, ends up being traded. Toronto’s road not taken here was Isaiah Collier, whose lack of shooting would have been harder to fit in with Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett but perhaps offered more long-term upside.

20. Cleveland Cavaliers

Jaylon Tyson | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | California

Vecenie’s ranking: 28

Jaylon Tyson is one of those prospects whom I wanted to love, but I just couldn’t quite get there. I think he has a lot of athletic traits that are traditionally underrated, and I loved his game off the bounce. He’s creative as a ballhandler and has an innate sense of how to navigate bodies. I think he’ll improve some of the issues he has overdriving with time, and I buy him becoming a solid enough shooter off the catch to make shots there. It felt like he was just on the right side of a lot of skills in a way that is concerning. He was just good enough as a decision-maker. He was just good enough as a shooter. He was just good enough as a finisher. The shot creation is there. I buy his ability as a driver and playmaker with the ball in his hands. But if any of those skills fall off, he might end up having some serious issues — especially when accounting for how rough his defense was this past season. Still, I think his upside as a shot creator is good enough that I ended up with a first-round grade on him in this class.

Hollinger’s analysis: This is higher than expected, but Tyson fits Cleveland’s needs pretty well, as a wing who can offered secondary ballhandling and knock down open shots. You’d wish both his feet and his release were a little faster, but this is pick No. 20, and this is what you get most of the time.

21. New Orleans Pelicans

Yves Missi | 6-11 center | 20 years old | Baylor

Vecenie’s ranking: 20

Yves Missi’s athletic tools are superb. While his 9-1 1/2 standing reach didn’t stand out for a player of this skill set at the combine, it’s more than enough when accounting for how vertically he plays. In many ways, he’s one of the safer picks in the draft in terms of projecting rotation players. Players this big, athletic and hardworking rarely fail. Given his attitude, it’s hard to imagine him not at least becoming a backup center. Beyond that, he must clean up some of the technical flaws within his game and continue to grow more comfortable with the ball in his hands when the defense takes away his first option. I believe he’ll be a starter eventually, but he has limitations. HIs upside is in the ballpark of Clint Capela, a player picked 25th overall who returned lottery value to Houston in 2014 before being traded to Atlanta. However, Capela significantly improved his game over the course of his first season-and-a-half in the NBA, and Missi must follow a similar trajectory to reach that level.

Hollinger’s analysis: New Orleans has an obvious issue at center and in particular needs a rim protector to play next to Zion Williamson. Missi is still fairly raw and his offensive development in particular might be a few years away, but with Jonas Valančiūnas likely departing in free agency and Larry Nance Jr. the only other viable center on the roster, the Pels’ need in the middle stood out.

22. Denver Nuggets (via trade with Suns)

DaRon Holmes II | 6-9 center | 21 years | Dayton

Vecenie’s ranking: 24

DaRon Holmes has several of the skills teams love to see in a modern big. Many are looking for bigs who can dribble, pass and shoot to help space the court and make decisions for their guards and perimeter stars, and Holmes can certainly do all those things. However, at his size, he faces questions about whether he can adequately perform the “big” parts of being an NBA big man. Can he rebound consistently and end possessions? What is his exact defensive role? He might not be for everyone, but if he finds the right spot, he could have every chance to be an awesome NBA big. I consider him as a souped-up version of Oklahoma City’s Jaylin Williams. He has a tad more athletic juice and scoring skill than J-Will, but his size limitations may make it hard to consider him a full-time starter. He’ll need to be a deadly shooter and get the absolute most out of his body and movement skills to get there. Still, I think he carves out a long-time NBA role on good teams.

Hollinger’s analysis: The Nuggets traded up to secure their guy, after rumors persisted for weeks that Denver had promised the Dayton big man. The Nuggets don’t have much draft capital lying around but decided he wasn’t going to make it to 28 and thus sent the 56th pick and two future seconds to the Suns to move up six spots.

Holmes fills a clear need for the Nuggets for a backup five who can stretch the floor and contribute offensively, while also shining a glaring light on the decision to give Zeke Nnaji a four-year, $32 million extension a year ago. Hemmed in by the tax apron, Denver was highly unlikely to fill this slot in free agency.

23. Milwaukee Bucks

A.J. Johnson | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Ilawarra Hawks

Vecenie’s ranking: 32

A.J. Johnson will be the ultimate test of stats and film versus projection this season. If you have an undraftable grade on Johnson, I understand it. The stats are rough. He played in a league that he wasn’t ready for. The tape isn’t great, although I think there is something positive to take away on his defensive growth throughout the season. Offensively, he struggled. He wasn’t efficient and looked extremely sped up throughout the year. But much like with G.G. Jackson last season, should you rely on the tape when it’s abundantly clear Johnson moved up levels too quickly and wasn’t ready to play in a physical league when he was under 170 pounds? Athletically, there are flashes of upside in terms of his ability to generate paint touches and his ability to separate backwards that are serious. In this draft, where everyone is looking for any remote chance of upside, I wonder if Johnson represents a marginal inefficiency in the same way Jackson did last season. Or, maybe I’m overcompensating for being low on Jackson last season by ranking Johnson highly as my upside bet in this class. I’d take a flier on him in the top 40 at this point if I had a strong, developmentally conscious organization that I believed would be able to get his frame up to speed within the next two years. There is a legitimate high-upside offensive starter here with defensive tools. But it’s going to take time and a lot of work by whatever organization ends up with him.

Hollinger’s analysis: The Bucks have been big fans of taking reaches like this in their recent draft history even though the hit rate has been … actually have they hit on any of these guys since Giannis? It’s always tougher when you’re making late picks, and obviously, Giannis was a pretty massive hit. Johnson has some athletic pop but is rail thin and can’t shoot and is very much a developmental player who is highly unlikely to contribute this year. The Bucks are in need of more immediate help, so I’m a little surprised they didn’t either trade down or trade out if this was the top player on their board.

24. Washington Wizards (via trade with Knicks)

Kyshawn George | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Miami (Fla.)

Vecenie’s ranking: 35

I wanted to like Kyshawn George, but I couldn’t get there given his athletic profile. I worry about him being unable to create separation off the dribble. I buy his shooting and I like that he can pass, but I don’t know if the threat of his shot is enough to unlock the rest of his offensive game. He was a solid defender in college, but he’s not long enough by NBA standards to compensate with his length in the way someone like Kyle Anderson has. It’s worth noting that Miami lost 13 of its last 14 games when it gave George significantly more on-ball chances over the back half of the season. Even as a 20-year-old, he wasn’t impacting winning in college when operating regularly on the ball. On top of that, he averaged under three points per game playing in the French second division last season. It’s just not anywhere near the production profile of a first-round selection given that he turns 21 in December. I see his upside and I’d be willing to draft him, but I view him as more of a second-round flyer than a first-round prospect.

Hollinger’s analysis: Wizards are wheeling and dealing left and right! Washington surrendered the 51st pick to move up two spots from 26 and take my Swiss brother George. I had him rated a bit lower even though he’s been getting consistent first-round buzz; he has size and can shoot it but is slow-footed and didn’t make a big impact on an awful Miami team this year. He likely has a ceiling as a role player, although if he hits it, his positional value is enough to justify this selection.

25. New York Knicks

Pacôme Dadiet | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Ratiopharm Ulm

Vecenie’s ranking: 34

Pacôme Dadiet has fans around the NBA, and his stock is a bit higher than it seems publicly before this draft. There are evaluators who loved the fact that he is an 18-year-old who didn’t hit a wall as a European player. In fact, he seemed to get better every month, which typically indicates a capacity for a positive long-term trajectory. Tobias Harris is a name that has come up a couple of times in my conversation with NBA personnel who are fans of Dadiet. However, I thought Harris was way ahead of Dadiet in his lone season in college, showing much more well-rounded shot-creation skills and a better floor game. I buy Dadiet as a scorer; he’ll shoot it at a good clip, and I love his off-ball movement. He understands how to create offense. The problem for me is that he doesn’t do anything else right now. One could excuse that by noting he’s a teenager, which is viable. But typically, the prospects like Dadiet who develop into successful all-around players tend to show many more flashes in those areas than Dadiet has. His lack of rebounding given his frame is concerning. Even playing in an overmatched second division last year, he averaged under four defensive rebounds per game, which ranked outside the top 60 in a league where the imports are not particularly strong compared to other second divisions worldwide. Throw in his below-average passing and poor defensive tape, and I’m lower on Dadiet than many members of NBA teams I talk to. Still, his legitimate off-ball scoring ability at this age makes him a worthwhile second-round pick.

Hollinger’s analysis: Four Frenchmen in the first round! I love the Dadiet pick for the Knicks. I think he’s been one of the more underrated players in this cycle. He gives New York another player in the 6-8 forward mold who can make an open shot, with the youth and ability to maybe be more long-term. At this point in the draft he becomes an inexpensive depth piece for a team that will desperately need a few of them, given the other commitments it recently made.

26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via trade with Knicks)

Dillon Jones | W | Weber State | 6-5 | 235 LBS

Vecenie’s ranking: 65

Dillon Jones’ draft status comes down to a philosophical question: Should teams believe in his clear levels of anticipation and feel for the game — along with his immense production at a lower level — or should they believe that his physical tools will hold him back? Last year, I was lower on Brandin Podziemski, another hyperproductive player from a smaller school. He won first-team All-Rookie honors with the Golden State Warriors. However, compared to Jones, Podziemski’s shooting was a clear differentiator. He needed to be guarded at almost all times off the ball. In Jones’ case, I worry that without the threat of that shot, his offensive utility is limited. Players like Jones are the kind I’m comfortable missing on. Even if Jones turns into a player who can play on the ball because the shot comes through, I worry enough about his defense to the point that I can’t envision what he becomes. He’s still worth a two-way flyer because his production was that substantial.

Hollinger’s analysis: I think this is a little high for Jones, but the Thunder can also afford to fire second-round picks into the sun if they want to make a move to get their guy. They sent five of them to New York to jump in and select Jones here, locking in another perimeter player on a cost-controlled contract.

The fact they went this far for Jones is perhaps a little odd, given that they already employ Cason Wallace and Lu Dort, just traded for Alex Caruso and just drafted Nikola Topic. Jones has a bully-ball body in the same mold as Dort and is an insane rebounder for his size, but played more as a point guard in college and needs to improve his shooting. On pure value it’s a defensible pick, but I do wonder about the fit here.

27. Minnesota Timberwolves

Terrence Shannon Jr. | 6-6 wing | 23 years old | Illinois

Vecenie’s ranking: 39

While Terrence Shannon was remarkably productive this season on the court, I’m not sure his style of play was conducive to NBA success. He was all gas and no brakes, and while he had a nice array of straight-line moves to get separation with his footwork after his ball pickup, he also often recklessly crashed into the paint to draw fouls. Shannon is an elite athlete, but the NBA game requires more nuance, especially if he continues to be an inconsistent shooter. During his final season at Illinois, he posted a 1.14 assist-to-turnover ratio. Since 2008, there have only been 11 seniors selected with an assist rate of 1.2 or worse, per Bart Torvik’s database: Buddy Hield, Jimmer Fredette, Chris Duarte, Ochai Agbaji, Matisse Thybulle, Marshon Brooks, Quincy Pondexter, Lazar Hayward, Davon Reed, Carrick Felix and Orlando Johnson. Hield and Thybulle are the only two hits in that group, and both had an elite skill to fall back on (Hield’s shooting and Thybulle’s defensive playmaking). By NBA standards, I don’t know if Shannon has one of those elite skills to break the mold and continue to thrive despite questionable decision-making. Throw in that Shannon is among the oldest members of that group at the time of their draft class, and I have a second-round grade on him.

Hollinger’s analysis: The Wolves go for immediate help in the form of Shannon, who is already 23 and doesn’t have starter upside but could grab some bench minutes right away with his defense and transition scoring. He will need to prove he can space the floor consistently, however. A this point, I remain floored that teams are grabbing these other wings over Kansas’ Johnny Furphy.

28. Phoenix Suns

Ryan Dunn | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Virginia

Vecenie’s ranking: 29

Ryan Dunn is one of the best defensive prospects I’ve evaluated. He’s that good. He’s also one of the worst offensive prospects that may be taken in the first round that I’ve seen in the last 10 years. Any team that takes him in the top 30 must believe in his shooting ability. The difference between him and a player like Herb Jones — a player who is different stylistically than Dunn on defense but makes a similar impact — is that Jones was comfortable with the ball and had at least shown flashes in his final season with his jumper. Jones made 35 percent from distance as a senior on limited attempts and ran the Alabama offense for stretches, averaging 3.3 assists and 11.2 points. Of course, Jones also shot 27 percent from 3 in his first two seasons at Alabama, which could give you some reason for optimism with Dunn. However, it took Jones two years of college and a year-and-a-half in the NBA to turn into a real shooter. Even if you buy into Dunn’s shot long-term, it’s a significant project that likely won’t be ready for multiple years. It will take a significant Investment from an NBA team to get Dunn to a passable level on offense that allows them to get the most out of his defensive play. His pathway may resemble Derrick Jones Jr.’s rather than Herb Jones’. It took years for Jones Jr. to turn into a passable offensive player to get his athleticism and defense on the court in a meaningful way. Finally, in his age-26/27 season, he became an impactful player for the Mavericks who helped them win playoff games. The issue for Dunn, though, is it took Jones four teams before Dallas to get there. Even if you look at Jones’ years in Miami as a success, the Heat weren’t his first team. I ended up with a top-30 grade on Dunn, but he might be one of those players that is better on his second team than his first one.

Hollinger’s analysis: Phoenix opts to select the best-educated player in the draft in Ryan Dunn, a Virginia product who profiles as a defensive specialist (Editor’s note: Hollinger is a Virginia grad). He lost all confidence in his shooting this past season, and his jumper is a down-to-the-studs teardown that would give Chip and Joanna Gaines pause, but he is a defensive terror who can guard all five positions.

29. Utah Jazz

Isaiah Collier | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | USC

Vecenie’s ranking: 19

The best flashes of Isaiah Collier make one think he could be an All-Star. The bad moments make one think he’s more likely to be a backup point guard. There’s a wide range of opinions league-wide on his ultimate future. He lifted USC’s play with his presence: The Trojans went 14-13 with him in the lineup and 1-5 without him. In conference games, Collier had the second-best on/off rating on the team. His ability to generate paint touches to score or pass was a serious positive for the Trojans this season. But there are a lot of holes in his game that don’t translate well to the NBA, which is based much more on speed, skill and intelligence than ever before. He’s an inconsistent shooter, has turnover issues and his defense wasn’t good enough. It’s hard to see an NBA coach feeling great about handing him minutes until those parts of his game improve. If he gets better in those aspects, it’s easy to see Collier as having one of the highest upsides in this draft class. Perhaps he can show the promise so many projected of him in college. It’s on Collier to decide how much he wants it. He has the tools to at least be a starting NBA point guard and he has improved some of his weaknesses in the past. But Collier’s floor is quite low for a potential lottery pick.

Hollinger’s analysis: I love the value here for Utah in Collier. I had a lottery grade on him and think his ability to defend on the ball has been underappreciated in this draft cycle. He will have to improve his outside shot and refine his decision-making, but he can get to the cup and will be able to take better advantage of his burst in the NBA’s open floor. One note here: Collier’s addition would seemingly make it less likely that the Jazz bring back Kris Dunn.

30. Boston Celtics

Baylor Scheierman | 6-6 wing | 23 years old | Creighton

Vecenie’s ranking: 22

Baylor Scheierman is an intriguing bet as a role player in the NBA with his shooting and comfort as a decision-maker. You get a real floor spacer who can run off movement and knock down shots. He can also attack closeouts and make quick reads. Scheierman is not going to be for everyone, but I bet that teams with schemes that involve a lot of motion and movement will love him. He processes the game very well at speed, even with his athletic deficiencies, and knows how to play within structure and scheme. He’ll make extra passes and will help on the glass, lead fast breaks and then in the half court will help your primary playmakers by being a shooter whom defenders must guard tightly. His defense is the big question. Can he consistently chase and play in help? Can he defend on the ball? It’ll all be about maximizing his frame and body and getting the absolute most out of his quickness. I have a clear first-round grade on him, though, given the importance of shooting at size in today’s NBA.

Hollinger’s analysis: The Celtics double down on the 3-point bonanza of a year ago by selecting a guy who took 13.3 3-point attempts per 100 possessions a year ago and made 38.1 percent of them. Scheierman is the oldest legit top-40 prospect in this draft, but he was also the best player on the court at the Hoop Summit (many top prospects didn’t play, however), and he fits Boston’s system like a glove.

(Top photo of 2024 draft class: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)