Fantasy football: Can Jets WR Garrett Wilson finish as the top overall receiver in fantasy this season?

As a native of New Jersey, I’m quite familiar with the New York Jets despite being a Green Bay Packers fan. Because of that fandom, I’m also familiar with the workings of QB Aaron Rodgers. Say what you want about A-Rod, but when healthy, he’s arguably the best QB to ever step on a football field. While attending the Jets’ opener last season, I was unfortunately present when Rodgers tore his Achilles and was forced to miss most of that game and the rest of 2023-24.

With all that time off, it appears Rodgers is healthy and ready to give it another go with New York. With a real QB, does this mean WR Garrett Wilson could finish this season as the top overall performer at his position? We’re going to investigate and break down why Wilson is a great target in all formats.

Fantasy football breakout: Jets WR Garrett Wilson

Having Rodgers back in any capacity could be all Wilson needs to make this jump. We’ll start by listing out all the QBs who have thrown Wilson the ball the past two seasons:

Zach Wilson
Trevor Siemian
Tim Boyle
Mike White
Joe Flacco
Chris Streveler

It’s easy to deduce that Flacco is the best QB to throw Wilson the ball in his career. If you take each of those QBs listed above and average out their QB rating for their careers, you come to 74.6. That’s the quality of QB who has been throwing the ball to Wilson in his first two seasons. Rodgers has a career QB rating of 103.6 and even his 91.1 rating from 2022 would be far and away the best season by a Jets QB in a very long time. Aside from one decent season from Josh McCown in 2017, the last time the Jets had a QB of this caliber was Vinny Testaverde in 1998.

We probably didn’t need to go over all of that to communicate that the Jets have been a dumpster fire at QB for a while. And that Wilson’s performed well in two seasons despite this. Wilson was AP Rookie of the Year in 2022 with mostly Zach Wilson under center. Combined, Wilson has 2,145 receiving yards and seven TDs with 178 catches on 315 targets over the first 34 regular-season games of his career. His catch percentage ranked 172nd in the NFL last season. Rodgers career completion percentage is 65.3%.

The point is as long as Rodgers is breathing and his body is healthy enough to play football, Wilson should see an increase in production this upcoming season. Even if Rodgers mirrors his 2022 season with the Packers, it’s a huge boost for Wilson. If — and this is a big if — but if Rodgers can recapture MVP form, it could mean Wilson has a chance to be the best WR in fantasy football this season.

What Rodgers’ top WRs tells us about Wilson’s potential

We can gather a lot from looking at what Rodgers’ top wideouts have done in the past. The main name being Davante Adams. From 2016-2021, here are Adams’ finishes at wide receiver in fantasy football:

2016: 7th
2017: 12th
2018: 3rd
2019: 29th
2020: 1st
2021: 5th

In 2019, Adams missed four games and likely would have been a top-15 WR in fantasy had he played the entire season. During that span, Adams had double-digit TDs in every season but 2019. In 2018, 2020 and 2021, Adams had at least 111 receptions and 149 targets while clearing 1,300 receiving yards. Rodgers tends to hone in on one trustworthy receiver and peppers that player with targets every game. The same was true for WR Jordy Nelson on the Packers from 2013-16, before Adams took over as the top wideout in Green Bay. We’ve also seen Randall Cobb and Greg Jennings pop up as Rodgers’ top WR option since he became a starter back in 2008.

I took a look back at each top wide receiver performance from a Packers WR while Rodgers was under center. I averaged out each performance and here’s what a baseline for Wilson could be this season:

Average receptions: 86.4 catches
Receiving yards: 1,185.9 yards
Touchdowns: 10.1 TDs

With those numbers, Wilson would have finished last season as a fringe top-10 PPR wide receiver. Right now, in most formats he’s being drafted around that range, currently as the WR8. So the ADP has some of this data already baked in. But the averages are a bit skewed. For one, earlier in Rodgers’ career, the Packers loved to spread the ball around. Until Adams had 111 receptions in 2018, a Packers WR hadn’t eclipsed 100 catches in a season with Rodgers as QB. Most of Rodgers throws were spread out to Nelson, Jennings, James Jones, Cobb and a combination of tight ends (mostly Jermichael Finley and Richard Rodgers). The Packers offense would evolve and be centered more around force-feeding one elite wideout (mainly Adams).

If we see this on the Jets in 2024-25, it could mean Wilson posts numbers that land him in the top-5 among wide receivers in fantasy football. Say what you want about Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett but from 2019-21, he was OC for the Packers with A-Rod and Adams. Two of those three seasons we highlighted as some of the best for Adams and for a Rodgers wideout. That’s the type of ceiling Wilson is working with this season. The potential to be the top WR in fantasy.

For this reason, when you look at Wilson’s ADP, it feels like he’s being slightly undervalued. In PPR, he’s going around the turn at picks 11 and 12 on average. There’s an argument to be made for selecting Wilson ahead of some top WRs going higher. That list includes AJ Brown, Puka Nacua and even Justin Jefferson.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has regressed a bit and the Eagles also have DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley. Nacua is coming off one of the best offensive seasons from a rookie WR ever. Some regression should be expected as a sophomore. Jefferson is arguably the most talented WR in the NFL. He’s also likely to start the season with Sam Darnold as his QB. If not rookie JJ McCarthy. Even CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase have some question marks. Though we wouldn’t recommend taking Wilson that high.

Really, the one thing that could put a snag in Wilson’s season is injury — either to himself or to Rodgers.