Yankees vs. Cardinals prediction, picks: MLB odds, picks, best bets

The Yankees return home Friday night to play the Cardinals looking to get right after a disappointing series loss in Washington. 

With 28 games left to play, New York holds a 1.5-game lead over Baltimore atop the AL East, which would be a little wider if not for a modest 31-26 record against teams below .500.

On the bright side, that leaves the Yankees with a league-best 47-30 record versus teams above .500, which you could spin as a positive as we head into the final stretch before the postseason. 

However, it’s hard to put a positive spin on the recent form of Marcus Stroman, who will start for the Yankees in Friday’s series opener.

Stroman goes up against Cardinals right-hander Erick Fedde, who has gone 1-3 with a no-decision in his five starts since being acquired at the trade deadline.

Yankees vs. Cardinals odds

Yankees vs. Cardinals prediction

After a strong start to the season, Stroman has pitched to an ERA of 5.29 in 13 starts since June 1.

His underlying results in that span are not much better, as he holds a 5.10 xFIP with a strikeout-to-walk percentage of 4.8.

Throughout his career, he has often outperformed his xERA, which has likely been partially because of his high ground-ball rate, which is down to 42.6 percent over his last six starts, while his hard-hit rate is up to 41 percent. 

Stroman’s 1.7 K/BB ratio this season is tied with Chris Flexen for the lowest mark of any qualified starter. 

The struggles for the right-hander have also been particularly pronounced at Yankee Stadium this season. He has an ERA of 5.09 over 69 innings of work at home with a .481 slug rate. 

The Cardinals are right at league average with a wRC+ of 105 versus right-handed pitching since July 1. They have struck out only 20.6 percent of the time in that span with a 33.5 percent hard-hit rate.

They will remain without Willson Contreras in this matchup, which certainly does hurt given that he had provided .848 OPS as a catcher this season. 

Fedde hasn’t been overly effective for the Cardinals since coming over from the White Sox on July 29, with an ERA of 4.23 in his five starts. He holds an xFIP of 5.04 in that span and a K-BB percent of 8.8 compared to his season average of 13.6 percent. 

Since July 1, the Yankees have been the second-most potent lineup in baseball with a wRC+ of 132. They also have the second-best hard-hit rate in that span of 35.1 percent, with an MLB-best K/BB ratio. 

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Yankees vs. Cardinals pick

Given the form of these two starters entering a matchup at Yankee Stadium, FanDuel’s current total of 8.5 looks too low to me. Any price better than -135 is worthy of a bet on this matchup to get past 8.5 runs. 

Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-105, FanDuel)