Analytics Provide Latest New York Jets Win Total, Playoff Prospects

The New York Jets just want the drought to end — the playoff drought, that is.

If a publication’s recent data-driven win projections for the season are correct, then the drought might just end in January.

The Athletic ran 10,000 simulations based on an NFL model used by Austin Mock. That provided an expected win total for each team, ranging from the San Francisco 49ers (11.4) to the Washington Commanders (5.9).

Then the site had each team’s beat writer react to the projection.

The New York Jets received a win total of 9.6, which was fifth-best in the AFC. The Kansas City Chiefs had the best total with 11.3 wins. If the Jets finish fifth in projected win total that would allow them to make the playoffs for the first time since back-to-back trips to the AFC title game under former coach Rex Ryan in 2009-10.

The analysis by Jets beat writer Zack Rosenblatt indicated that he agreed with the assessment.

“The Jets clearly have the most talented roster of the three (Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins) from top to bottom, and if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, there’s no reason they should fall short of 10 wins,” he wrote.

Without Rodgers, who missed all of last season with an Achilles tendon injury, New York went 7-10 for the second straight season. With Rodgers healthy, many experts are projecting that means two to three more wins for New York.

Not everything is rosy right now with the Jets. Edge rusher Hasson Reddick continues to hold out, as the Jets have been unable to get him into a contract extension. New York inherited the final year of his deal with Philadelphia and while they were confident they could get a deal done when they made the trade, no such deal as materialized.

In fact, general manager Joe Douglas told reporters on Thursday that there has been little conversation with Reddick’s camp the past few weeks.

For the most part, the Jets seem to be moving in the right direction. Their top three offensive players — Rodgers, running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson — could be a Top 10 combination by season’s end. The departure of Dalvin Cook means the backfield workload belongs to Hall.

New York, even without Reddick, has one of the best defensive units in the NFL, led by top cornerback Sauce Gardner and one of the best pass rushes in the league, which Reddick could bolster upon his return — assuming a deal gets done before Monday’s opener with the San Francisco 49ers.