Vikings’ daunting schedule makes Giants game as must-win as Week 1 gets

You never want to call a Week 1 game a must-win, because teams evolve over the course of the season and it’s just one of 17 opportunities to earn a victory. But when you look at their schedule for the first month and a half of this season, the Vikings’ opener against the Giants on Sunday at MetLife Stadium is about as must-win as openers can get.

After their trip to New Jersey, the Vikings come home to face the 49ers in Week 2. That’s a team that had an overtime lead in the Super Bowl last year before falling just short. In Week 3, they get the Texans, who are viewed as a legitimate AFC contender this year in C.J. Stroud’s second season. Then it’s a trip to Lambeau Field to take on Jordan Love and the ascending Packers. In Week 5, they’ll face Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ elite defense in London. After the bye week, the Vikings get a visit from the Lions, who are right up there with the 49ers as one of the NFC’s best teams.

So you can see how a loss to the Giants could lead to the season quickly getting away from the Vikings. A 2-4 or 1-5 start wouldn’t be difficult to envision if Kevin O’Connell’s team can’t go on the road and take down a beatable, Daniel Jones-led New York squad. And in the NFL, you don’t usually climb out of those kinds of holes. Last year, the Vikings couldn’t stop fumbling on their way to a 1-4 start. They actually did climb out of it, winning five in a row, but they left themselves no margin for error and fell apart down the stretch due to their quarterback carousel and other injuries.

This game promises to be a fascinating immediate litmus test for the Vikings. If they’re as good as they believe they are, they’ll win this one — and perhaps comfortably. Brian Flores’ reloaded, veteran-laden defense will fluster Daniel Jones, whose best weapons are Devin Singletary and rookie Malik Nabers. Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, and Justin Jefferson will generate explosive plays against a Giants defense that isn’t scary outside of a few stars up front.

At the same time, there’s a reason why the Vikings are just 1.5-point favorites in this game. If they’re the team the national public believes they are, they’ll struggle with the Giants to open the season. Darnold will be under significant pressure from Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux. He’ll do what he’s almost always done in the NFL, which is make some poor decisions. Aaron Jones won’t magically fix the run game that O’Connell has never been able to get on track. The defense, despite all of its new faces, will be nothing special.

No matter what happens in this game, it’ll lead to inevitable overreactions. That’s how things work in the NFL. But with a team that went through such a big quarterback change in the offseason, we almost have to overreact to this game — because we’re going to learn a lot about the Vikings and whether or not they should be taken seriously this year.

If they win, the path to be 3-3 after the opening gauntlet and then really push for a playoff spot will be easy to see. If they lose, fans could be looking at a 1-5 start and a bunch of 2025 mock drafts in their near future. Sunday’s game isn’t actually going to determine the Vikings’ entire season, but that’s kind of how it feels.