Why New York Giants Will Beat the Vikings, Why They Won’t, and a Prediction

The New York Giants kick off their 100th season Sunday at home against the Minnesota Vikings, a team they last saw in the 2022 postseason, a Giants Wild Card win.

But much has changed since then, most notably on the Vikings’ defense, which, following that 2022 season, was led by Brian Flores. In 2023, Flores’s unit finished 16th overall (333.2 yards/game), including eighth against the run (98.7 yards/game).  

“It’s a pressure defense,” Giants head coach Brian Daboll said of Flores’s approach. “He pressures often–sometimes the entire game. 

“He presents a variety of challenges with the fronts, and then you add the players. (Minnesota Vikings cornerback Stephon) Gilmore, a veteran who came over there, (safety) Harrison Smith, (defensive lineman) Harrison Phillips. 

“They’ve got completely different edge guys with (outside linebacker Andrew) Van Ginkel, (outside linebacker Dallas) Turner, (outside linebacker Jonathan) Greenard from Houston. So it’ll be a challenge.” 

Offensively, Daboll immediately went to receiver Justin Jefferson when talking about the unit’s challenges.

“You better know where he’s lined up. He can hurt you in all three areas of the field. Catch and run, intermediate, vertical, double moves,” he said. “They’ll use him in a variety of spots, and then you look on the opposite side of it with (wide receiver Jordan) Addison, who we did a lot of work on when he was coming out last year, who’s an exceptional route runner, very gifted receiver, was excellent at Pitt, and you can see.”

“Then they acquire a veteran in (running back Aaron) Jones (Sr.), who’s a very good runner, can run inside, run outside, solid offensive line, and (quarterback) Sam (Darnold).” 

Darnold, the Jets former first-round draft pick, replaces Kirk Cousins, who signed with Atlanta during free agency. The Giants won’t see J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings first-round pick, as McCarthy is out for the season after knee surgery.

Daboll cautioned people not to sleep on Darnold.

“You go back and watch Sam. I’ve watched Sam for a long time at all the spots he’s been, whether it’s San Francisco, the Jets, or Carolina. He’ll be ready to play,” he said.

Why the Giants Will Beat the Vikings 

The Giants upgraded their pass rush in the offseason with the addition of Brian Burns, in whom they also made a significant financial investment. Now they need that three-headed monster, which includes outside Kayvon Thibodeaux and interior defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence II to start bearing fruit, and it needs to start this weekend against Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.

Darnold, per NextGen Stats, has a passer rating under 54 since 2018, when he came into the league, the worst rating among qualifying quarterbacks. In 66 career games, he’s thrown 56 interceptions, has 38 fumbles, and has a completion percentage rate of 59.7 percent in those career games. 

The Giants defense has forced 39 fumbles since the 2022 season (the most in the NFL over that span). Darnold, remember, once was caught on the mic during a regular-season game against the New England Patriots in 2019, saying he was “seeing ghosts” thanks to the Patriots’ pass rush.  

If the Giants’ pass rush somehow conjures up those spirits and allows Darnold to get reacquainted with them, it could make for a much easier afternoon for Big Blue. 

Why the Giants Will Lose to the Vikings

The Vikings love to bring pressure against opposing offenses, but it could make for a long day for them if the pressure doesn’t get home. The Giants figure to have quarterback Daniel Jones get the ball out of his hand as quickly as possible and trust the speedsters he now has at receiver to make the plays. The Vikings ranked among the bottom five in the league last year against teams that averaged 15 receptions and 178 yards per game. 

Defeating the blitz and knowing where the pressure is potentially coming from will be key for the Giants, starting with their revamped offensive line. If they can’t get that figured out, Jones, as he’s been known to do under heavy duress, tends to put the ball up for grabs (see the preseason game against Houston), often resulting in backbreaking mistakes the Giants can’t afford to make. 

Since the 2022 season, Jones has completed 73 percent of passes (211 completions/290 net pass attempts) on first-read passes, the best of 36 qualified quarterbacks. It will be interesting to see if the Vikings look to take away those underneath routes when they blitz and if the Giants can thwart those attempts.

Prediction: Giants 24, Vikings 20

My biggest concern is the offensive line, which didn’t play any snaps together in the preseason games and which had about 20 or so practice snaps together. Left tackle Andrew Thomas spoke of the importance of communication and being on the same page with one another if they’re to neutralize the aggressiveness of the Vikings defensive attack. Let’s hope that the unit has their act together for that. 

As for the prediction of a win, Darnold should be good for a turnover or two which if the Giants can convert to points, should be enough to send Giants fans attending the game home happy.