Vikings vs. Giants prediction: NFL Week 1 odds, picks, best bets

Before the Giants’ 2024 season even starts, it must feel like déjà vu all over again for quarterback Daniel Jones. 

Just one year after receiving a four-year deal worth $160 million, there are already murmurs about whether Jones is the long-term solution for the Giants at the position.

The team has a potential out based on how they structured his contract. According to Spotrac, if the Giants release Jones before the 2025 season, their dead cap would drop from $69.3 million to a more manageable $22.2 million.

Thus, Jones is back in the same position of trying to prove his doubters wrong.

While the market is considerably bearish on the Giants in 2024, they deserve a bit more respect than being Week 1 home underdogs to a team with one of the NFL’s lowest win-total projections this season.

Here’s my game preview, prediction and pick for Sunday’s Vikings vs. Giants matchup. 

Vikings vs. Giants odds

Vikings outlook

You can’t get too carried away with what you see in the NFL during August.

Minnesota’s 2024 first-round pick, J.J. McCarthy, received glowing reviews for his lone preseason appearance in the Vikings’s 24-23 win over Las Vegas.

The Michigan product completed 11-of-17 passes for 188 yards while tossing two touchdowns and an interception. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a meniscus tear in his right knee during the game and is out for the year. 

The plan for McCarthy was to get some reps during preseason and serve as a backup to Sam Darnold. However, it’s entirely possible McCarthy would’ve gone on to win the starting job. 

Darnold is entering his seventh NFL season as a former third overall pick, and he’s already on his fourth team. The Jets traded him to Carolina in 2021 because, after three underwhelming seasons in New York, they knew they’d never pick up his fifth-year option. 

Darnold couldn’t cut it in his two seasons with Carolina and moved on to San Francisco, backing up Brock Purdy. 

So, should we now suddenly view Darnold as a quarterback worthy of being a starter in the NFL?

Giants outlook

Regardless of your opinion of Jones as a starting quarterback, he still led the Giants to a playoff berth in the 2022 season and even defeated the Vikings on the road in wild-card round.

Jones went toe-to-toe in that game with Kirk Cousins. Both quarterbacks played exceptionally well, finishing with a QBR value of at least 82.5.

The Giants simply had more of the ball and controlled the time of possession (33:36-26:24) with their running game. Jones led New York’s rushing attack with 78 yards on the ground.

When healthy, his dual-threat ability makes him a handful for opposing teams to defend. The key words here, of course, are when healthy. Jones suffered a neck injury last year that sidelined him for three games, and then tore his ACL, ending his season in Week 9.

The problem is there’s so much residual damage, or rather PTSD, from watching backup quarterback Tommy DeVito run around in the backfield, that it’s almost as if this is the same Giants team from a season ago.

This is a good buy-low opportunity in Week 1 with New York as a home dog.

Vikings vs. Giants pick

We’ll have plenty of time during the season to dig into the X’s and O’s. But for now, this is simply a fade of Darnold. 

According to the Action Network, Darnold is 22-33-1 (40%) against the spread (ATS) as an NFL starting quarterback. Moreover, when his teams are bet up after opening as a pick’em or favorite, he’s a woeful 0-4 ATS.

Betting on the NFL?

There’s also an angle in Week 1 that points to value on underdogs, as they’re 158-139-6 (53.2%) all-time ATS. The prevailing thought is that the start of a new season also brings renewed hope and optimism for the lesser teams. 

When picking between the two quarterbacks, I’d much rather hitch my wagon to Jones than Darnold, who elicits more questions than answers at this stage in his career.

Best bet: Giants +2 (-112, DraftKings)