Bills vs. Dolphins prediction: Player prop picks for ‘Thursday Night Football’

A divisional matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins is on tap Thursday night to kick off Amazon’s Prime Video TNF package.

While it’s still early in the season, this South Beach contest could have significant playoff implications down the line.

For now, here are three player props worth considering for this primetime matchup that even Al Michaels can get excited about.

Best bets: Bills vs. Dolphins player props

Tyreek Hill under 96.5 receiving yards (-110, bet365)

I know. I’m asking you to fade the best wide receiver in football, but check out the numbers he’s been held to by the Bills since joining the Dolphins: 7-69, 7-82, 3-58, 9-69 and 2-33. That’s an average of 62.2 yards per game.

Buffalo has two excellent cornerbacks on the boundary, Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, who ranked seventh and 10th in PFF’s coverage grades among 75 qualified corners last season.

Miami will utilize motion to get him free releases at the line of scrimmage, but Buffalo is excellent at keeping opposing offenses on their toes with a diverse coverage scheme that adapts and changes throughout the game.

Sean McDermott and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich can keep Hill in check here.

Dalton Kincaid over 42.5 receiving yards (-113, Fanatics)

It was a disappointing Week 1 for anyone who spent an early pick on Dalton Kincaid in fantasy football, but I expect the Bills tight end to bounce back in Week 2.

The film of Week 1 shows Cardinals jerseys flock to Kincaid on every drop-back, but don’t expect the Dolphins to be quite as aggressive looking to take him out of Thursday night’s game.

Kincaid ranked second on the team with 16 routes from the slot last week, which is excellent for this matchup.

Kader Kohou, the Dolphins’ nickel corner, allowed 40 catches on 45 targets in the slot last year, and it was more of the same in Week 1 as he allowed four catches for 67 yards and finished with a brutal 33.1 PFF coverage grade.

Kincaid still had an 80% route run rate in Week 1, the second-highest on the team, and he finished with seven catches for 84 yards in his last game against Miami.

He cleared this yardage prop in seven of 10 games last year with at least a 60% snap share, averaging 49.1 yards in those spots.

Jonnu Smith over 15.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)

One of the more underrated offseason signings was the Dolphins landing tight end Jonnu Smith. The Dolphins can utilize Smith as a versatile chess piece who is equally adept in blocking and catching the ball downfield. We saw him working in the backfield quite a bit in training camp, and with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane questionable this week, his role could increase here.

Smith ranked second on the team with 12 routes from the slot last week, and the Bills had to turn to former UDFA Cam Lewis as their slot defender after Taron Johnson left with an arm injury. He performed admirably, but I still expect Mike McDaniel to attack that spot, particularly in the red zone.

Be ready to jump on this prop if De’Von Achane is ruled out tomorrow. Achane ran ten routes from the slot last week, and those opportunities would get consolidated with Jonnu Smith seeing more volume on Thursday. Even if Achane plays, his snap count could be limited on a short week, especially since it’s early in the season.

Betting on the NFL?

Smith led all qualified tight ends with 7.3 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/REC) last season and ranked 11th with 1.55 yards per route run. With the amount of open space he’ll find in the Mike McDaniel offense, he will have some productive games this year, and this matchup sets up very favorably. I’d also consider a flier on his touchdown odds, currently available at +425 on DraftKings.