Yankees vs Red Sox prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets Thursday

The best rivalry in baseball will be renewed Thursday as the Yankees and Red Sox begin their final head-to-head series of 2024 in The Bronx.

With no off day this week for the Yankees, Nestor Cortes (9-10, 3.97 ERA) will receive another opportunity as a starter after being used in long relief last time out versus the Cubs.

Cortes will be opposed by right-hander Cooper Criswell (6-4, 4.11 ERA), who has quietly put together a solid stretch of play with a 2.12 ERA across his last four outings.

Let’s break down Thursday night’s matchup and offer a prediction and pick.

Red Sox vs. Yankees odds

Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction

While Criswell is in a strong run in terms of runs allowed, his underlying results haven’t been hardly as impressive.

Over his last five starts, he has pitched to a 5.38 xFIP and has been hard hit 43 percent of the time. He has also allowed an xBA of .323 in that span and an actual batting average of .308. 

Despite only allowing two earned runs in five innings of work, overall Criswell was shaky in his last outing versus the White Sox, giving up five hits while not striking out a batter. He was also hard hit 50 percent of the time. 

Chances are the Yankees won’t let Criswell off the hook as easily as the White Sox did. While some of the Yankees’ top hitters are scuffling right now (we’re talking about you, Aaron Judge), their season-long body of work suggests a couple of cold-hitting series should not draw too much concern. 

Since the start of August, the Yankees are slugging .440 against right-handed pitching with a 118 wRC+. They also have the fourth-best BB/K ratio in baseball in that sample and the third-best hard-hit rate. 

If Criswell is to struggle early, it could lead to a crooked total for the Yankees, as the Red Sox bullpen owns the league’s worst ERA (5.91) and FIP (4.97) over the last 30 days.

Justin Slaten’s return from the injured list could help that issue to some extent, though he did allow a game-tying home run Wednesday night to Baltimore’s Anthony Santander. 

Cortes, meanwhile, will look to back up his talk after making some fiery post-game remarks regarding his usage out of the bullpen over the weekend. 

Cortes has stabilized after an ugly stretch to end July. Over his last 33 ⅔ innings, he holds an ERA of 3.21 with an xFIP of 4.39. He has allowed a batting average of .228 in that span with a .250 xBA. 

Cortes has always loved pitching at Yankee Stadium, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see The Bronx firmly behind him Thursday.

In each of his four seasons in New York, the left-hander has pitched to a better ERA at home. That includes a 3.19 ERA this year with a 0.99 WHIP at home, compared to a 4.81/1.32 on the road.

Over the last month, the Red Sox have hit to a wRC+ of just 68 versus left-handed pitching and have struck out 29.3% of the time. 

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Red Sox vs. Yankees pick

The Yankees could easily do damage off of Criswell early, and they will have a good chance to tack on versus some softer Red Sox relievers.

With Cortes in solid form of late and getting a great matchup, this looks like a good spot to target the Yankees covering the run line at plus money. 

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+112, FanDuel)