UFC 306 predictions, odds: Full prelim, main card picks at The Sphere

UFC 306 will be live from The Sphere in Las Vegas on Saturday with one of the biggest fight cards of the year.

It will be a spectacle unlike any other, as the promotion will be putting together movie packages for each main card fight.

It’s Mexican Independence Day on Saturday and the main event is Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili.

O’Malley himself is not mexican, but his wife and daughter are both Mexican, so it’s a roundabout way of relating to the heritage.

Most of the card is filled with Mexican fighters, though, and it should be an extremely entertaining fight card from start to finish.

The entire prelim card will be on the ESPN NEWS network beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET, before heading over to pay per view at 10 p.m.

UFC 306 predictions

Sean O’Malley (-140) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+118)

It’s not a stretch to say that the UFC really wants and needs “The Sugar Show” to continue past this massive fight card.

The problem is O’Malley is not a takedown defender who can really compete with Merab Dvalishvili on the mat.

However, the same can be said about Dvalishvili being unable to compete with O’Malley as a striker.

O’Malley’s grappling is actually underrated here, and Dvalishvili’s chin is a bit suspect.

Still, the wrong fighter is favored here.

Dvalishvili is a cardio machine with loads of takedown prowess and has the most takedowns per 15 minutes in UFC history (6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes).

He is at an elite camp and has the inside track on this bout thanks to ex-champion Aljamain Sterling, who followed a horrific game plan in their bout.

Sterling and coach Matt Serra should be able to put together a more legitimate game plan in front of their fighter to take the path of least resistance to snag the title.

PICK: Dvalishvili ML (+118, Caesars)

Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+118)

A once dominant champion has shown cracks in her armor for years and the chickens finally came home to roost when she lost to Alexa Grosso as a -600 favorite in 2023.

Shevchenko followed that up with a rematch fight for the bantamweight title against Grosso, fighting to a draw.

It is clear that Shevchenko has lost a step physically. She used to be untouchable on the feet and frankly her recent fights have shown dents in her defense.

Shevchenko will need to grapple her way to victory, having racked up plenty of control time in the first two fights of this trilogy.

Having said that, it’s hard to see this fight going anywhere other than decision.

Grosso and Shevchenko know each other better than anyone having spent two long fights against each other in recent years.

PICK: Fight goes the distance (-188, Fanatics)

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UFC 306 full card picks (main card in bold)

• Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Dvalishvili ML (+118, Caesars)
• Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko: Fight goes the distance (-188, Fanatics)
• Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes: Lopes by KO/TKO (+310, FanDuel)
• Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics: Zellhuber moneyline (-225, Bet365):
• Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne: Fight goes the distance (+140, Caesars)
• Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont: Aldana by decision (+140, FanDuel)
• Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes: Bahamondes by decision (+600, BetMGM)
• Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza: Pass
• Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van: Chairez by submission (+900, ESPN BET)
• Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng: Rosas by submission (-150, BetRivers)