Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Player prop bet for Clarke Schmidt

The first domino in the injury plague that struck the Yankees’ starting rotation this season fell when Clarke Schmidt went to the injured list more than three months ago. 

If it weren’t for a strained lat injury, the 28-year-old was on course for a breakout campaign.

Schmidt takes the mound on Friday against the Red Sox in just his second start since late May.

He faces right-hander Tanner Houck in Game 2 of a four-game set in the Bronx.

Red Sox vs. Yankees odds

Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop

Before his injury, Schmidt was showcasing an impressive pitch mix, headlined by a cutter that offers a swing-and-miss rate above 32 percent. 

As he pushes 10 strikeouts per nine innings in 2024, Schmidt is also the Yankees’ single-most effective starter in neutralizing left-handed hitting.

The fifth-year vet returned from rehab last week with no signs of regression — especially against lefties — in a no-decision against the Cubs.

In the 4 ⅔ innings Aaron Boone opted to use him, Schmidt kept the board scoreless while serving a heavy dose of cutters and curves that matched his velocity from back in the spring. 

The effort resulted in only two strikeouts, but on Friday he gets a Red Sox starting lineup that features six left-handed hitters.

While Boston has built a solid batted-ball profile with cosmic power-hitting contributions from Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers, it dwells four games outside of a wild-card spot for a multitude of other deficiencies. 

Pitching woes aside, Boston’s offense is temperamental as it swings big and has gone askew in key pitching matchups, amounting to the third-most strikeouts in baseball. 

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Schmidt has hurdled his 5.5-strikeout prop line for Friday in eight out of 12 starts this season and in eight of his last nine starts before the injury, including five straight. 

He’s struck out over two more batters per nine innings at Yankee Stadium than he has on the road, so let’s aim for a strong Bronx return as Schmidt settles in for the postseason. 

The Play: Clarke Schmidt over 5.5 strikeouts (-158, FanDuel)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.