Mets vs. Nationals prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets Monday

There’s a game of musical chairs occurring in the National League wild-card race, and the Mets can’t afford to miss a seat.

They auspiciously host the Nationals as they jockey with the Braves for the final NL playoffs spot with 13 games left on the schedule.

The Mets have conquered the season series, 8-2, against Washington both straight-up and against the spread. What’s more is they swept the Nats in the first meeting at Citi Field by a 20-7 run margin.

Jake Irvin settles into a Nationals rotation that’s gotten hit for a .311 average on balls batted in play, the third-highest mark in baseball.

The sophomore right-hander gained a confidence victory in his last start, containing a flammable Braves lineup to only two hits in six innings.

But Irvin has only posted back-to-back wins twice this season, while the Mets have handed him a 5.79 ERA in three career starts.

Irvin has regressed significantly since his last start against the Mets on July 9.

He’s attempting to turn the page from a woeful August.

A big issue is he struggles to escape jams — recording a .466 slug percentage against with men in scoring position.

Sean Manaea has made for a relatively steady presence throughout his first season for the Amazin’s.

He’s been explicitly effective down the stretch, with a 4-1 record and a 3.00 ERA since the start of August.

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

It’s not a secret how much more offensive upside the Mets hold over Washington:

They are 16 runs better in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), a metric that quantifies run creation while including external factors.

I’ll take the heavier bats, more consistent pitching and favorable matchup trends for value on the run line.

THE PLAY: Mets -1.5 (FanDuel, +114)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.