Mets vs. Nationals prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets for Wednesday

After falling 11 games under .500 on May 29, the Mets have completely turned their season around, going an MLB-best 61-35 in the span.

On Tuesday night, they pommeled Washington 10-1 to improve to 9-2 in the season series.

They also got some help from the Reds, who rallied from a four-run deficit to defeat the Braves 6-5.

The Mets now have a two-game lead over Atlanta for the final NL wild-card spot. 

It’ll be critical for them to build as big a lead as possible, as they still need to play the Braves, Phillies and Brewers to close out the season.

As a result, they must accept nothing short of a sweep against the Nationals in the Wednesday’s series finale.

Nationals vs. Mets odds

Nationals outlook

DJ Herz will hope to win his third straight decision when he takes the mound for the Nationals.

The 23-year-old rookie left-hander is 4-7 on the year with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

While Herz can be a mainstay in the Nationals’ rotation in the coming years, the team wants to be careful not to push him too hard.

In each of his last three outings, he’s thrown exactly 87 pitches and has hit the century mark just once in 17 starts.

Herz isn’t the kind of pitcher that’s necessarily going to overpower hitters.

His fastball has a velocity of around 93.6 mph, yet he has an above-average 10.98 K/9 ratio.

Left-handed pitchers often have enough deception with their unique arm angles to still be effective even without an electric fastball.

The problem for Herz is he’ll be facing a Mets lineup that tends to perform better against southpaws.

New York is hitting .259 with a .329 on-base percentage while slugging .429 when facing lefties vs. a .243/.317/.405 slash line against right-handers.

Mets outlook

The Mets will counter with a left-hander of their own as José Quintana gets the nod.

Quintana has been on quite a run lately, winning his last three starts.

If you go back to his last four starts, he’s allowed just one earned run over 25 innings.

In his two appearances against Washington this season, he went 14 innings without allowing a run.

His numbers don’t exactly jump off the page because he’s not a strikeout pitcher. He has a 6.91 K/9 ratio and can be susceptible to the occasional walk (3.34 BB/9).

However, his best asset is varying his pitch selection to opposing hitters. 

Quintana throws four pitches: sinker (29.5%), curveball  (27.8%), fastball (23%%) and changeup (19.7%), using his balanced approach to keep hitters guessing.

Washington is below average in run production when facing the pitches in Quintana’s arsenal. 

That could explain why the Nationals have had such little success against him this season.

Nationals vs. Mets pick 

It does feel like there’s a bit of magic with this Mets team this season.

They recently called up Luisangel Acuña, the younger brother of Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña.

The Mets rookie infielder is already off to a flying start with five hits in 11 at-bats.

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On Tuesday, he hit his first home run with a swing that’s very reminiscent of his brother’s power stroke.

Acuña is filling in at shortstop for Francisco Lindor, who remains sidelined with a back injury. 

At a time when Lindor’s absence could’ve derailed the Mets’ postseason chances, they’ve still been able to expand their wild-card lead.

New York has all the momentum going into this series finale, along with a clear edge in the pitching matchup. 

With the Mets as high as a -170 favorite on the moneyline, the run line is our best option at +130 odds.

Best bet: Mets run line (+130, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.