New England Patriots vs New York Jets Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for TNF (Sep. 19)

• NFL Week 3 starts with the Patriots vs Jets on Thursday Night Football on Sep. 19
• Both teams head into TNF 1-1 and a game behind Buffalo in the AFC East
• Below, see the Patriots vs Jets predictions, expert picks, and where to find the best odds

One of the surprise teams of the season so far, Jerod Mayo’s positively-competitive New England Patriots (1-1, 1-0 away, 2-0 ATS) head to East Rutherford for a date with AFC East rivals the New York Jets (1-1, 0-0 home, 1-1 ATS) on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm ET at MetLife Stadium.

The Jets picked up their first win of the Aaron Rodgers era last week, a 24-17 road win at Tennessee, and the Patriots vs Jets odds heavily favor New York making it two straight on TNF. The Jets range from six to 6.5-point favorites and are as short as -285 on the moneyline, while the total is at just 38.5 points.

New England Patriots vs New York Jets Prediction & Picks

• Patriots +6.5 (-115) at DraftKings
• First-half under 16.5 points (+160) at
  ESPN Bet
  
  
• Sascha Paruk’s 2024 NFL picks: 7-6 (+0.84 units)

The Patriots opened with the lowest NFL win total this season (4.5) and are far exceeding expectations through two weeks. After beating the Bengals straight-up in Cincinnati (16-10) as 8.5-point underdogs, they nearly moved to 2-0 last Sunday, falling 23-20 in OT to the Seahawks. They are relying on a potent ground game and rock-solid defense, while Jacoby Brissett is playing his usual game-manager role under center.

While they benefited from timely takeaways against Cincinnati – not something that’s sustainable over the course of a season – they should be able to replicate their general recipe for success from week to week. Barring injuries, the defense is going to remain well above average, and the offensive line is clearly miles ahead of where pundits thought it would be, especially in the run game.

After torching the Bengals for 170 rushing yards in Week 1, the Pats backed it up with 185 against the Seahawks, averaging 5.1 YPC. Rhamondre Stevenson (201 yards, 4.4 YPC) and Antonio Gibson (114 yards, 6.3 YPC) have quickly formed one of the most-formidable 1-2 punches in the backfield.

Patriots fans everywhere: “Why isn’t Rhamondre Stevenson on the field for this drive?”

Antonio Gibson: …
pic.twitter.com/UQQqWByDRh

— Alex Barth (@RealAlexBarth) September 15, 2024

The Jets, meanwhile, aren’t quite the force some were expecting. Aaron Rodgers, now 40 and playing his first meaningful snaps in a year, has completed just 60.8% of his passes through two weeks and is averaging just 171.5 passing yards per game. His Jets fell 32-19 to the 49ers in Week 1 as 3.5-point road underdogs before taking down the mediocre-at-best Titans 24-17 in Week 2 as 3.5-point road favorites.

Rodgers and WR1 Garrett Wilson haven’t found immediate chemistry. Wilson leads the team with 117 yards through two games, but has caught just 10 of his 17 targets.

It’s possible the Jets look more in sync in Week 3, their first home game of the season, but I don’t expect their so-far-middling offense to make big strides against one of the better defenses the 2024 NFL has to offer.

I expect the Pats to churn clock with the run game once again and stay within striking distance throughout a low-scoring game. It certainly helps that the Jets are expected to be without Haason Reddick (holdout) for a third straight game and lost their 2022 first-round pick, linebacker Jermaine Johnson, to a torn Achilles in Week 2. The addition of linebacker CJ Mosley (questionable, toe) to the injury report on Monday means the Pats could be facing a seriously depleted New York front seven.

Best Patriots vs Jets Odds

As mentioned, the spread still ranges from 6.0 to 6.5. DraftKings currently has the best ATS odds on the Patriots to cover, listing New England +6.5 at -115. The best price on the Jets is currently -6.0 (-115), which bettors can take advantage of with the ESPN Bet promo code.

Bet365 has the best moneyline price on New England as +230 while FanDuel has the best odds on the Jets to win at -275.

There is little variation in the game total. The over/under is listed at 38.5 across the board. FanDuel has the best odds on the under at -105 while bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, and ESPN Bet all have the over at -110.