Pennsylvania Derby 2024: Odds & analysis for $1 million race

The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday drew a field of 11. The 1 1/8-mile signature race at Parx Racing is the final Grade 1 stakes race of 2024 that is restricted to 3-year-olds and is run around two turns on dirt.

The field includes a pair of Grade 1 winners in Stronghold and Seize the Grey and three others who had a Grade 3 victory. Will Take Charge in 2013 and West Coast in 2017 were named the champion 3-year-old male after winning the Penn Derby.

Click here for Parx entries and results.

Here is a full field analysis for the Penn Derby with the official track morning-line odds from Parx Racing, sires, trainers, jockeys, records and purse earnings. The feature is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. EDT and is listed as race 13 out of 14 on a card that includes 11 stakes.

1. Doc Sullivan, 12-1, Solomini, Mike Miceli, Jose Ortiz, 9: 4-4-1, $352,050. Doc Sullivan was a New York-bred stakes winner at the June Saratoga meeting and then was second twice going two turns in state-bred stakes. The Penn Derby will be his first try in an open-company, 3-year-old stakes race let alone a Grade 1. Toss.

2. Seize the Grey, 5-1, Arrogate, D. Wayne Lukas, Jaime Torres, 12: 4-0-3, $1,869,938. Seize the Grey is the leading money winner in the field based on his victory in the Preakness, which came after a win in the Pat Day Mile (G2). Since, he was seventh in the Belmont Stakes after setting the pace and fourth in the Jim Dandy (G2). In 2013 Lukas won the Penn Derby with Will Take Charge. Win contender.

3. Lonesome Boy, 20-1, Nationhood, Hugo Padilla, Adam Bowman, 13: 3-2-2, $184,384. Lonesome Boy got his first win in a $40,000 maiden claimer in his fourth start and then won a starter allowance. He won a stakes race at Parx in March on a sloppy track and then tried the Kentucky Derby trail in the Wood Memorial (G2) and finished fourth. At Monmouth Park he was fourth in the Long Branch and then fifth in a sprint stakes back at Parx. Toss.

4. Timeout, 10-1, Curlin, Bill Mott, Joel Rosario, 5: 1-2-2, $117,950. Timeout was a maiden winner in his third start against a field of six at Aqueduct in June. He ran well to finish third in the Curlin at Saratoga and was second in an allowance at the Spa last month. Toss.

5. Protective, 8-1, Medaglia d’Oro, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7: 1-2-2, $236,920. Protective broke his maiden in his seventh start at Saratoga last month in a race with a field of four that was meant for the turf. He did finish third in the Wood Memorial and the Peter Pan (G3) and was sixth in the Belmont Stakes. Todd Pletcher’s only victory in the Penn Derby was in 2002 with Harlan’s Holiday. Live long shot.

6. Just Step On It, 15-1, Accelerate, Louis Linder Jr., Jose Lezcano, 11: 3-3-0, $211,150. Just Step On It is a New York-bred and one of the local horses in the biggest of stakes at Parx. At the beginning of his career he was claimed for $32,000 and won a state-bred maiden and an allowance. He then was fourth in the Haskell and second in the Smarty Jones, which is the Parx prep race for Penn Derby. Toss.

7. Dragoon Guard, 9-5, Arrogate, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 5: 4-1-0, $646,860. After Dragoon Guard finished second in his career debut a year ago, he came back this year and won four races in a row. He had a pair of easy front-end victories in the Indiana Derby (G3) and the West Virginia Derby (G3). He was an odds-on favorite in three of those races. Brad Cox won this race last year with Saudi Crown. Win contender.

8. Unmatched Wisdom, 8-1, Cairo Prince, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 4: 3-0-0, $191,250. Unmatched Wisdom won his first three races, including the Curlin at Saratoga. In the Travers he had a rough start and was hard held in the early going. A rundown bandage came loose, and it flapped behind him for the final five furlongs of the race. The Travers was certainly a race you could draw line through for Unmatched Wisdom. Chad Brown won this race in 2016 with Connect. Top choice.

9. Who’s the King, 20-1, Not This Time, Saffie Joseph Jr., Mike Smith, 10: 1-1-2 – $66,326. Who’s the King broke his maiden in his sixth start in a $50,000 optional claimer at Gulfstream Park. Since, he ran in three starter allowances and an allowance with two at Churchill Downs and two at Saratoga and had a second-place finish. Remember that trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. won the 2019 Penn Derby with the 31-1 long shot Math Wizard. Toss.

10. Uncle Heavy, 12-1, Social Inclusion, Butch Reid, Mychal Sanchez, 8: 3-0-1, $358,580. After success against Pennsylvania-breds, Uncle Heavy tried the Kentucky Derby trail and was the winner of the Withers (G3). Since, however, he was a disappointment when he ran fifth in the Wood Memorial, sixth in the Preakness and fifth in the Ohio Derby (G3). Uncle Heavy got blinkers and ran third in the Smarty Jones, which was an improvement. Toss.

11. Stronghold, 5-2, Ghostzapper, Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu, 8: 3-4-0, $886,000. Stronghold had a pair of victories on the Kentucky Derby trail in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) and the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He was seventh in the run for the roses after running prominently throughout the race and got floated out wide in the stretch. He was second in his only start since, which was in the Indiana Derby. Win contender.

Summary: Listed in order of morning line odds, Dragoon Guard, Stronghold, Seize the Grey and Unmatched Wisdom are all serious win contenders in a contentious edition of the Pennsylvania Derby. Seize the Gray and Stronghold won Grade 1 stakes for 3-year-olds. Dragoon Guard is 9-5 based on his four wins in a row for Brad Cox with the last two coming in Grade 3 races. Unmatched Wisdom was undefeated before his bizarre trip in the Travers and is the 8-1 fourth choice.

Bettors should consider giving Unmatched Wisdom another chance. With his generous morning line odds, I certainly will do so. Unmatched Wisdom is the top choice.