Full ‘MNF’ predictions, odds: Commanders vs. Bengals, Jaguars vs. Bills

Monday’s slate for Week 3 of the NFL season features not one, but two matchups — Washington at Cincinnati, and Jacksonville at Buffalo.

Which players from these four teams will step up in the spotlight? Here is my favorite “Monday Night Football” player prop bet from each game:

Commanders vs. Bengals prediction

(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Last year, the Giants ranked 30th in offensive DVOA, 30th in points per game, and 29th in yards per game, and it did not improve much, if at all, on that side of the ball in the offseason.

Yet, the Commanders allowed Daniel Jones to throw for 178 passing yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions in Week 2.

Washington also allowed Baker Mayfield to toss four touchdowns in its first game of the 2024 season.

So, what do you think Joe Burrow will do to Washington?

Burrow and the Bengals may have had a slow start to the season, losing at home to New England, but they quickly returned to form against Kansas City, nearly beating the defending champions on the road.

Burrow threw for 258 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 2.

Now, he faces a Washington team that has received the second-worst defensive grade in the 2024 season, per Pro Football Focus, despite playing against two mediocre offenses (Giants and Tampa Bay).

Additionally, star wide receiver Tee Higgins returned to practice late this week, suggesting he will be available on Monday night. Higgins’ return will give Burrow yet another receiving weapon to target against this Commanders secondary, arguably the worst unit in the league.

Burrow should carve the Commanders en route to at least a two-touchdown performance in the air.

Recommendation: Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-136, BetRivers).

Jaguars vs. Bills prediction

(8:15 p.m. ET, ABC)

Despite having Josh Allen — one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL — under center, Buffalo has been hesitant to air the ball out; Allen has actually averaged just 21 passing attempts through his first two games.

A portion of Allen’s low passing volume can be attributed to the fantastic play of running back James Cook, who has logged two rushing touchdowns through the first two weeks.

However, most of Buffalo’s hesitancy to throw as much as it has in the past few seasons is undoubtedly due to losing its top two receivers (Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs) in the offseason.

A team’s passing volume also might decrease if an offensive line can’t protect a quarterback in the pocket, but that is not the case with Buffalo.

Per PFF, the Bills have the eighth-highest pass block grade so far this season; they have allowed the fewest pressures (6) and second-lowest pressure percentage (12.2 percent) in the NFL.

Simply put, this Buffalo offense will look different than in past years. Allen’s passing volume will likely be lower, and the offense will have less consistent success.

Regarding this matchup, the Jaguars secondary has not been great, but it has not performed like a bottom-five unit, which many projected it would be this season.

Betting on the NFL?

Jacksonville is desperate for a win after starting 0-2, so expect a sense of urgency, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

Recommendation: Josh Allen Under 21.5 passing completions (-135, FanDuel).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.