Football
Thursday Night Football: Cowboys at Giants Predictions | Opta Analyst
Sure it’s early, but this is a big NFC East matchup to open Week 4. We reveal our keys, win probability, player projections and all our Cowboys at Giants predictions.
The calendar still says September, but it might as well read late December as far as the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants are concerned because it’s essentially playoff time for these NFC East rivals.
On the onset of the season, our prediction model projected the Cowboys winning the division ahead of the Giants, with the Philadelphia Eagles finishing third and the Washington Commanders bringing up the rear.
Three weeks into the 2024 season, however, and the Cowboys and Giants are each 1-2 looking up at the division at the 2-1 Eagles and Commanders.
It’s obviously still early, but another loss could potentially derail any playoff aspirations for the Cowboys and Giants, which makes the latest edition of this rivalry extremely important. They’ll meet at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Amazon Prime Video’s TNF with the winner gaining a major advantage in their playoff outlook.
Since the NFL expanded to a 17-game schedule in 2021, 34 teams have started 2-2 in the past three seasons. Of those teams, nearly half have gone on to make the playoffs, with 15 still punching a ticket to the postseason (44.1%).
In that same span, there have been 25 instances of a 1-3 start, but only three of those teams have played past NFL Week 18, or 12.0%.
So, the team that is defeated during this short week faces long odds of playing for the Lombardi Trophy. But the good news for Cowboys fans is their team has owned the Giants in recent years.
Since the start of the 2017 season, Dallas has won 13 of 14 meetings with Dak Prescott winning his last 12 starts in the series. The Cowboys have reeled off six straight victories over the Giants since a 23-19 loss in Week 17 of the 2020 season.
Sportsbooks have the Cowboys as 4.5-point favorites, and our supercomputer agrees they’re the best bets in its NFL picks, giving them a 60.7% win probability.
Last season’s two matchups were completely one-sided.
In the season opener, the Cowboys rolled to a 40-0 beatdown for the franchise’s biggest shutout victory in any game. Two months later in Week 10, Dallas won 49-17, racking up 640 total yards to come within 12 of the franchise record. The scoring differential in the two games of plus-72 was the Cowboys’ largest in a season sweep of an NFC East opponent.
While Dallas has demolished underdog New York in recent meetings, the bad news for Cowboys fans is their team has been trounced at home in the last two weeks, while the Giants have shown marked improvement.
After yielding 230 yards in a 33-17 season-opening win over the Cleveland Browns, Dallas has suffered back-to-back losses while surrendering 72 points and 888 yards with 464 of those yards coming on the ground. This is the first time the Dallas franchise has allowed at least 70 points, 850 total yards and 450 rushing yards in consecutive games since 1961.
The Giants, meanwhile, are coming off their first victory of the season, totaling season highs of 340 yards and 21 first downs in Sunday’s 21-15 win at Cleveland. They’re averaging 5.4 yards per play in their last two games after averaging 3.5 yards per play in a 28-6 season-opening loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
It’s small steps for New York, except for the Daniel Jones-Malik Nabers emergence – that’s developing into a significant stride.
New York’s Key: Rely on Playmakers
Nabers is quickly showing why the Giants selected him sixth overall in April’s NFL Draft and has established quite a connection with his quarterback.
After catching 10 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown in a 21-18 loss to the Commanders in Week 2, Nabers had eight receptions for 78 yards and two TDs against the Browns. At 21 years, 56 days, he became the youngest receiver in NFL history with two touchdown receptions in a game.
His first touchdown grab Sunday was a sensational catch as he spun around in the back of the end zone to haul in the ball. But even when he’s not open, he’s still showing off his athleticism.
Two of his best plays against the Browns came when he was covered. In one instance, he jumped high off the ground to go up over cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. to snatch the ball away for a 28-yard reception. Later, he broke up a bad pass from Jones that would’ve been intercepted in Giants territory.
And that seems to be the optimal play for Jones – just throw it in the general direction of Nabers and hope he comes down with the ball.
In the last two weeks, Nabers has registered a slightly below average open percentage of 73.3 – the NFL average for receivers on the season is 73.9% – but that hasn’t stopped Jones from throwing in his direction.
He had been targeted 30 times by Jones – a ridiculous amount compared to the other 57 receivers with at least 50 routes run in the last two weeks.
Target % on Routes Run – Weeks 2 & 3 (Min. 50 Routes)
- 47.6% – Malik Nabers, New York Giants
- 35.1% – Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
- 34.7% – Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
- 32.8% – Marvin Harrison Jr. Arizona Cardinals
- 32.3% – Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
It’s with good reason Jones is targeting Nabers so frequently. On the season, his five receptions for 25 or more yards are tied with the Houston Texans’ Nico Collins for the most in the NFL and two-thirds of his receptions in the last two weeks have moved the chains – with 12 of 18 catches resulting in first downs.
Expect to see plenty more of Jones throwing to Nabers in this matchup, especially considering the vulnerability of the Dallas secondary.
In the last two weeks, the Cowboys have allowed 11.4 yards per pass play and registered an open-allowed percentage of 90.0 – both league worsts.
Giants Player Projections (as of Tuesday)
- Daniel Jones: 18.5 completions on 28.2 attempts for 158.8 yards with 1.0 TDs and 0.7 INTs; 8.7 carries for 49.3 yards
- Devin Singletary: 16.1 rushes for 71.6 yards with 0.5 TDs
- Malik Nabers: 5.8 receptions for 56.0 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
- Wan’Dale Robinson: 4.5 receptions for 35.5 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
- Theo Johnson: 2.1 receptions for 17.2 yards with 0.1 touchdowns
As susceptible as the pass defense has been, Dallas’ run defense has been just as bad, yielding a successful running play 57.1% of the time – the highest rate in the NFL over the last two weeks.
This is a stark contrast to a year ago, when Dallas leaned heavily on one of the league’s best defenses to help it win the NFC East with a third straight 12-5 record.
Devin Singletary has been overshadowed by the electrifying playmaking ability of the team’s shiny new rookie receiver, but like Nabers, the first-year Giants running back is also off to a strong start to the season.
In the last two weeks, Singletary is averaging 3.47 yards before contact and has six rushes going for 10+ yards. Only the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (22.9%) and the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (20.7), have had a higher percentage of their runs go for 10+ yards than Singletary’s 18.8 in the last two weeks (among the 28 running backs with at least 20 carries).
This again works to the advantage of New York, as Dallas has given up an NFL-worst 15 runs of 10+ yards in the last two weeks, and routinely allows opposing running backs to gain at least four yards when they carry the ball.
Highest Rate Allowing 4+ Yard Rushing Plays
- 55.3% – Dallas Cowboys
- 54.2% – Tennessee Titans
- 54.2% – Washington Commanders
- 53.3% – Los Angeles Rams
- 52.6% – Carolina Panthers
The Giants haven’t been overly flashy offensively in the season’s first three weeks – other than some highlight-reel catches by Nabers – but now they have the opportunity to pounce on a defense that is reeling.
Of course, Dallas still has plenty of offensive weapons of its own and has enough firepower to keep up with New York.
Dallas’ Key: Rely on Playmakers
Although Dallas can put up points, it has been sporadic in the early going.
After gaining 265 total yards in their 33-17 season-opening win at Cleveland, the Cowboys totaled 353 yards in a 44-19 Week 2 loss to the New Orleans Saints and 412 yards in Sunday’s 28-25 defeat to the Baltimore Ravens.
While they’ve seen an increase in yardage each week, the problem is they’ve also seen too many drives end with field goals.
It’s all well and good that Dallas has a kicker who not only has a huge leg but is also extremely accurate (Brandon Aubrey converted a 65-yard field goal against the Ravens – 1 yard shy of the NFL record – and is 15 for 15 on kicks of 50+ yards in his career), but the Cowboys are trotting him out too much.
They’re scoring touchdowns on 17.1% of their offensive drives this season – tied for 20th in the NFL – after scoring TDs on 29.4% of drives last season – fourth highest.
Another issue with the offense is it has failed to put together a complete game.
Against the Browns, the Cowboys managed 216 yards before halftime and just 49 in the second half. In Week 2, they had 226 first-half yards and 127 after the break. And on Sunday, they had 243 yards in the second half after a 169-yard first half.
They nearly pulled off an incredible comeback against the Ravens after trailing 28-6 with three fourth-quarter touchdowns, but it was too little too late.
While Jones has been locked in on Nabers, Prescott, who finished second in the NFL MVP voting a year ago, has been spreading the ball around. Against the Ravens, Prescott completed passes to 12 different Cowboys – the most players to catch a pass in a game in franchise history and tied for the most by any team in the Super Bowl era.
Although Prescott is throwing to more receivers, he’s completing passes at a lower rate than usual. He ranks 25th in completion percentage with a career-low mark of 60.7 after compiling a completion percentage of 68.4 over the previous four seasons – the second-highest mark among qualifying QBs.
Part of the issue for a lower completion rate is he’s throwing to receivers who aren’t open.
CeeDee Lamb is to blame for much of this problem.
A year after leading the NFL with 135 receptions, Lamb has once again been Prescott’s top target with a team-high 13 catches, but he isn’t on the receiving end on as many of his throws.
In 2023, Lamb led all NFL receivers by catching 31.5% of his team’s total receptions. This season, he has 17.3% of Dallas’ total receptions.
A big reason Prescott isn’t throwing in Lamb’s direction as much is because he hasn’t gotten open. After posting a burn percentage of 67.4 in 2023 – ninth highest among the 53 players targeted at least 90 times – he has a burn percentage of 50.0 – 12th lowest among the 46 players with more than 15 targets this year.
Jalen Tolbert (53.3) and Brandin Cooks (53.3) have been marginally better, but as a team, Dallas receivers haven’t helped Prescott much, compiling a burn percentage of 45.8 – the fifth lowest.
Cowboys Player Projections (as of Tuesday)
- Dak Prescott: 25.3 completions on 35.8 attempts for 276.2 yards with 1.5 TDs and 0.5 INTs
- Ezekiel Elliott: 6.1 rushes for 24.0 yards with 0.3 TDs
- Rico Dowdle: 12.7 rushes for 52.6 yards with 0.3 TDs
- CeeDee Lamb: 6.1 receptions for 86.9 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
- Brandin Cooks: 3.2 receptions for 34.1 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
- Jake Ferguson: 4.1 receptions for 41.6 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
While the receivers haven’t done much to help Prescott, they should be able to get open against a banged-up Giants secondary.
New York had a pair of cornerbacks exit Sunday’s game with calf injuries, with starter Dru Phillips’ day ending after just seven plays and his replacement Adoree’ Jackson coming out later. The Giants have already been without starting cornerback Nick McCloud the last two games after he hurt his knee in the opener, and with all the injuries to the defensive backs undrafted rookie Art Green made his NFL debut against the Browns.
The struggling Deshaun Watson failed to take advantage of the depleted secondary, but Prescott should find more success against a New York team that has the league’s second-worst open-allowed percentage at 85.2.
New York’s offensive line has also been an area of concern, and that doesn’t bode well for facing a motivated Micah Parsons.
The prideful Parsons was infuriated after Dallas was kicked in the teeth from the jump Sunday for a second week in a row. The Ravens scored touchdowns on their first two drives and had 28 points less than five minutes into the second half a week after the Saints scored TDs on their first six possessions.
Parsons knows something needs to change.
“We just need 11 guys playing together and, right now, it’s just not in unison,” the three-time Pro Bowl defensive end said. “It’s always the test, man. And at one point you’ve just got to rise and say, ‘I will not fall.’”
Determined to get the defense playing better, Parsons and company set their sights on a Giants offensive line that has registered the fourth-worst pressure-allowed rate at 50.4%.
Right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor has been solid, posting an adjusted sack-allowed percentage of 0.0, but Andrew Thomas has a pressure-allowed rate of 12.8 – the fifth worst among the 29 left tackles with a minimum of 40 plays in pass protection.
They’ll be tasked with containing Parsons, who registered a 25.0 pressure rate in last season’s two matchups.
Jones only faced the Cowboys once last season after missing the Week 10 game with a torn right ACL and was sacked seven times in the season opener, bringing the total number of times he’s been sacked by Dallas to 24.0 – by far his most by any opponent.
Veteran defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence has spearheaded the attack on Jones, accounting for seven of those sacks. He had 2.0 sacks in this year’s opener against Cleveland and Parsons was responsible for one of Dallas’ 6.0 sacks of Watson, but the Cowboys have notched just one in the last two games.
They’re poised to generate a pass rush in this one and continue to give Jones nightmares. If it does, the Cowboys should be on their way to another victory over the Giants and put themselves in a better position to make the playoffs.
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