Colorado vs. UCF prediction: College football odds, picks, best bets Saturday

A week after needing a fourth-quarter Hail Mary touchdown pass to help beat Baylor in Boulder, Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes hit the road for a Big 12 clash against Central Florida on Saturday afternoon.

UCF is off to a 3-0 start, straight-up and against the spread. The Knights are a heavy home favorite, laying 14 points after being as high as -15.5.

Bookmakers also project plenty of points with the total hovering around 62 points. The one concern is the weather, as there’s some rain in the forecast for the Orlando area with winds up to 10 mph.

However, both offenses have a distinct advantage they can exploit, and in this preview I’ll share how that edge can impact a specific player prop.

Colorado vs. UCF odds

Colorado outlook

With a record of 3-1, Colorado is already halfway to its win total of 5.5 games. The problem is that the Buffaloes likely won’t be favored again until Week 9, when they host Cincinnati.

However, after a projection of 3.5 wins in 2023, we can acknowledge that there has been a moderate improvement. The Buffaloes finished last season 114th defensively (+0.04) in Adjusted Expected Points Added (Adj. EPA) per play. And now through four games, they’re up to 36th with a -0.11 value.

Colorado will face a stiff test against a UCF offense ranking seventh in Adj. EPA (-0.11). To be more specific, its biggest challenge will be slowing down a Knights’ rushing attack that’s second in the nation in yards per game (336.5).

UCF is one of five teams with a run-play rate of 73% or higher, with the top three teams all service academy schools.

The Knights also have the highest rushing success rate at 57.4%, and if they stay ahead of the chains, they’ll have an excellent opportunity to cash in on their chances inside the red zone.

UCF outlook

UCF’s success running the ball helps to tilt the time of possession battle in its favor.

According to TeamRankings, the Knights control the ball for almost 33.5 minutes per game, the 14th-longest mark in Division I. Winning the time of possession battle could be vital in keeping UCF’s defense off the field as much as possible.

The Knights rank 105th defensively in Adj. EPA (+0.13). They particularly struggle against the pass, ranking 128th in opponent completions (26 per game) and 120th in passing yardage (310.5).

Gus Malzahn hasn’t gotten his money’s worth since hiring Ted Roof away from Oklahoma to run the defense. In 2023, the Knights’ defense ranked higher than this season at 97th in Adj. EPA (+0.04).

Opponents have the sixth-highest pass-play rate against UCF, and the Buffaloes will likely continue that trend.

Colorado vs. UCF pick

Colorado’s offense tends to be one-sided because of its struggles running the ball. And with the Buffaloes averaging a measly 2.6 yards per carry, they’ve almost completely abandoned the run.

While Colorado’s run-play rate of 36.4% is the fourth-lowest mark, this matchup does suit its passing game with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback.

The Buffaloes have relied heavily on the combination of Sanders and Travis Hunter at the wide receiver position. Hunter has twice as many receptions as any player on Colorado while leading the team in targets. 

Betting on College Football?

With the dynamic two-way player having the fourth-shortest odds (+900) at bet365 to win the Heisman Trophy, he’ll need to keep getting opportunities to stay in the race.

Hunter’s receiving prop on Saturday is 96.5 yards, and he’s exceeded that number in five straight games. And if there’s ever an opponent Hunter can feast against, it would be UCF and its pass defense.

Since it’s difficult to see where the stops will come from if both teams play to their strengths, this matchup is tailor-made for Hunter to have a big game. 

Best bet: Travis Hunter Over 96.5 receiving yards (-115, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Andy Fenelon is an experienced sports bettor with an eye for parlays. He once cashed a +11673 futures-based three-legger on the Milwaukee Brewers.