Mets vs. Braves prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets for doubleheader

MLB’s regular season concludes Monday with a dramatic doubleheader in Atlanta between the Mets (88-72) and Braves (88-72) — a matchup that will determine the final two wild-card spots in the National League.

Both sides need only one win from Monday’s contests to earn a playoff berth. The winner of Game 1 will then likely pivot from using its top arms the rest of the day, giving the loser a distinct advantage in Game 2.

That not only sets up an intriguing betting scenario, but it also creates a nightmare script for Arizona (89-73), which will be rooting for a sweep by either team. That’s the only way the Diamondbacks, who are at a tiebreaker disadvantage to both the Mets and Braves, can get into the playoffs.

The team that wins Game 1 will no doubt adjust its starting pitcher, lineup and bullpen usage and therefore should end up as a fairly heavy underdog in Game 2. By doing so, it will receive a significant reward in saving a top arm for the wild-card series that starts Tuesday. 

Game 1: Mets vs. Braves odds

Game 1: Mets vs. Braves prediction

The Braves will turn to Spencer Schwellenbach in Game 1 and Chris Sale, if needed, in a do-or-die Game 2. The Mets are likely to start Tylor Megill in Game 1, and Luis Severino, if needed, in Game 2. 

Schwellenbach will look to put an exclamation mark on what has been a fantastic rookie season. He has accrued 2.4 WAR and a 3.47 ERA across 116 2/3 innings. He holds a strong underlying profile as well, including a 3.39 xFIP and 3.42 xERA.

Since the All-Star break, the right-hander has an ERA of 2.88 in 72 innings with a WHIP of 1.01 and a Pitching+ rating of 110. He faced the Mets in his last outing, allowing just three hits and one earned run across seven innings. 

Megill, who has struggled to find consistency throughout his career, might not instill the most confidence among Mets fans in this critical spot.

However, the right-hander has been excellent in five starts since returning from a minor-league stint on July 30, with an ERA of 1.78 and an opponent batting average of just .187.

Megill’s underlying results during that span have also been quite strong. He has a K-BB% of 19.6 and an xFIP of 3.28. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 110 in that span while allowing a contact rate of 73.5%.

With plenty of high-quality arms, both bullpens enter the game in good form. Over the last month, Braves relievers have an ERA of 2.82, while the Mets bullpen has achieved a mark of 3.62.

Mysteriously, All-Star closer Edwin Diaz entered the Mets’ win over Milwaukee on Sunday with a 5-0 lead and threw 26 pitches in his one inning of work. His status for the doubleheader is unknown. Other than that, both bullpens are in good shape.

Neither offense has been overly effective against right-handed pitching of late. Over the last month, the Braves have hit to a wRC+ of 94 against righties, while the Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 89. 

Game 1: Mets vs. Braves pick

Both starters have been in excellent form of late and will face-off against an opposing lineup which enters this spot in relatively modest form.

Any signs of struggle for either starter should lead to a high-quality arm coming out of the bullpen, which gives value to backing this matchup to stay under 7.5 runs. 

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Also, if the opportunity arises, betting both doubleheader split possibilities at anything close to 3/1 odds could be an effective strategy. Neither of these rivals will simply lie down in Game 2, but chances are the game will ultimately end up with a significant pitching mismatch. 

Best bet: Under 7.5 runs (-102, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.