Karl-Anthony Towns trade shifts NBA title odds, makes Knicks a ‘liability’

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The New York Knicks have pushed their chips in, reminiscent of Mike McDermott against Teddy KGB in “Rounders.”

On Friday, Jon Krawczynski and Shams Charania broke the news of an agreed-upon trade which would move four-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks in exchange for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected first-round pick from the Detroit Pistons (the deal is still being finalized).

The blockbuster trade not only altered the NBA landscape over the weekend but also created ripple effects from a betting perspective.

As a result of the swap, the Knicks’ odds of winning the NBA title have shortened from +900 to +700 at BetMGM (meaning a $10 bet would win $80 at the new line). 

New York now has the third-shortest odds to win the title behind the Boston Celtics (+325) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (+675). The Knicks also have a 54.5 win total projection at BetMGM, the third-highest win total in the league, again behind only the Celtics (58.5) and Thunder (56.5).

After the trade news, New York leapfrogged the Philadelphia 76ers on both the championship betting board and Eastern Conference title odds.

With the season’s start just a few weeks away, let’s look at the odds movement caused by the trade, current NBA betting odds and some insights from BetMGM.

NBA Championship Odds at BetMGM: Before Trade / After Trade

• Celtics: +310 / +325
• Knicks: +900 / +700
• 76ers: +900 / +1000
• Timberwolves: +1100 / +1000

NBA Eastern Conference Odds at BetMGM: Before Trade/ After Trade

• Celtics: +160 / +170
• Knicks: +425 / +275
• 76ers: +450 / +475
• Bucks: +725 / +900

Diving in on the Timberwolves’ massive decision. What it means for the short and long term, the vote of confidence in Naz Reid and the piece that put this deal over the edge. https://t.co/EuySG2JtvQ

— Jon Krawczynski (@JonKrawczynski) September 28, 2024

“The Knicks are our fifth biggest liability to win the NBA Championship,” BetMGM PR Manager John Ewing said. “They opened at +1600 and have quickly seen their odds drop throughout the offseason.

“The Knicks are also the biggest liability to win the Eastern Conference at BetMGM.”

Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata (a BetMGM operation in Atlantic City), told us bettors have been running to the counter to wager on New York to win it all.

“We typically take a lot of New York money, and even before this trade, money was coming in,” Gable said. “The Knicks are our biggest liability for the NBA championship.”

New York has reached the Eastern Conference semifinals in back-to-back seasons. Can Towns help them get over the hump?

The Athletic’s Zach Harper handed out grades on the big trade.

“Even though this is a talent upgrade in the frontcourt where the Knicks were lacking, I’m still confused why this is the move for the Knicks. Their floor is raised, but I’m not sure they’ll get to that higher ceiling. Towns has to change the way he’s played on defense to make this a massive win for the Knicks. It also removes any glimmer of financial flexibility Brunson gave them by taking a discount with his extension. Towns is signed through 2027 for $160 million and then has a $61 million player option for the 2027-28 season.”

Grade: B-

Required reading

John Hollinger: Why KAT-for-Randle trade may turn ‘best player’ maxim on its head

James L. Edwards III: Why acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns doesn’t guarantee Knicks got better

(Photo by Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)