NFL picks, predictions for Week 5: Bills edge Texans, Cowboys beat Steelers in clutch road victories | Sporting News

The NFL has 13 teams with a 2-2 record after four weeks, which speaks to the parity of the playoff race heading into Week 5. 

In fact, there is just one matchup between teams with winning records this week, and it’s a good one. The Bills meet the Texans in a showdown of 3-1 AFC hopefuls. The Bills are coming off a 35-10 loss to the Ravens, and the Texans are looking to build on a 24-20 victory against the Jaguars. 

Of course, Stefon Diggs will be the center of attention in this game. The Texans receiver spent four seasons with the Bills. He has three TDs in four games with Houston, and his connection with second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud is strong. 

MORE: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings | Week 5 NFL picks against the spread

Is Houston a real contender outside of the AFC South? Or are the Bills, led by quarterback Josh Allen, primed for a bounce-back performance on the road? 

The Week 5 schedule also features a strong NFC South matchup between Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and Pittsburgh and Dallas meet on Sunday night in an NFL blue-blood matchup that stirs up memories of Super Bowls from the distant past. The AFC North battle between the Bengals and Ravens will be fun, too.  

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Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season: 

• Straight up: 40-24 (9-7 in Week 4) 
• Against the spread: 35-26-3 (11-4-1 in Week 4) 

Here are our picks for Week 5: 

NFL picks, predictions for Week 5

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) 

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime

This should be an entertaining Thursday night game. The Buccaneers have been great around Baker Mayfield, who ranks fourth in the NFL in passer rating (106.9). Can the Falcons, who have four sacks this season, get enough pressure on Mayfield to force a few turnovers? Tampa Bay has won three of the past four meetings at Atlanta. The Falcons’ past three games have been decided by a combined total of eight points. 

Pick: Buccaneers 26, Falcons 21

MORE: Tom Brady fires back at Baker Mayfield over ‘joy’ comment

• New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network 

The Vikings know Aaron Rodgers well from his time with the Packers, and they’re a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Sam Darnold has 11 TDs and three interceptions, and he is up against the pass defense in the NFL (128.0 ypg.). Who wins that matchup between Justin Jefferson and Sauce Gardner? Rodgers is coming off his worst game of the season, but New York has a chance to spring the upset here. The Vikings still remain the safe pick as long as Darnold stays hot. 

Pick: Vikings 20, Jets 17 

MORE: Sam Darnold playing like MVP ahead of Jets game | Penalties, poor pass protection doom Jets vs. Broncos

• Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)  

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

Caleb Williams is coming off his best performance, and the Bears likely will continue the high-percentage passing game that resulted in a 106.6 QB rating in Week 4. The Panthers are 2-8-1 ATS as a road underdog, and they are allowing a league-high 32.3 points per game. Andy Dalton has played well in two starts, and he’ll need to again in his second start against a former team. 

Pick: Bears 27, Panthers 24

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• Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

The Bengals have won three of the past four meetings at home, but a defense that has allowed 145.5 yards per game will be a problem against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Joe Burrow got back on track last week, and he’s one of five NFL quarterbacks with a completion percentage of 70 percent or better this season. That will pay off with receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. This could turn into a shootout real quick. If that happens, the Bengals will have a chance to snag their first home victory. 

Pick: Bengals 31, Ravens 28 

MORE: Derrick Henry nearly sets NFL record vs. Bills | Henry’s speed wows on 87-yard TD run

• Miami Dolphins (-1) at New England Patriots 

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

The Patriots are sticking with Jacoby Brissett, who hasn’t been able to generate much offense for a team that averages a league-low 13 points per game. Miami turned to Tyler Huntley to kick-start an offense that has struggled without Tua Tagovailoa (head). This will be a defensive struggle, and we will take the team with a little more offensive firepower, even coming off a short week. The Dolphins have won two of the past three meetings at New England. 

Pick: Dolphins 20, Patriots 15

MORE: Rob Gronkowski says Drake Maye shouldn’t start over Jacob Brissett

• Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3.5) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

Two franchises on different trajectories meet here. The Browns are spiraling downward fast. Deshaun Watson has taken a league-high 19 sacks. Washington rookie Jayden Daniels leads the NFL with an incredible 82.1-percent completion percentage. The match with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury works, and it’s on Myles Garrett and a Cleveland defense to throw Daniels out of rhythm. This line could push up close to game time. The Commanders also have hit the OVER in three consecutive games. Cleveland will be a trendy upset pick, but we will stick with the home team. 

Pick: Commanders 29, Browns 21

MORE: Did Bears err passing on Jayden Daniels? | Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston yell at teammates

• Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

Will Anthony Richardson (hip) miss another week, opening the door for a Joe Flacco start? Jonathan Taylor is dealing with a mild ankle sprain, so his status also is questionable. That is a lot to deal with against the Jaguars, who are in full desperation mode at 0-4. Trevor Lawrence had better protection in Week 4, and if that continues, then the Jaguars will pick up their first victory. 

Pick: Jaguars 21, Colts 19 

MORE: Anthony Richardson injury update | Jonathan Taylor injury update | Should Joe Flacco start for Colts?

• Buffalo Bills (-1) at Houston Texans 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

This is one of the best games of the weekend. Stroud will find Diggs for at least one TD, but the Bills are in a prove-it situation after the embarrassing loss to Baltimore. Look for James Cook to have more success in this game, and Allen will answer in the passing game. This should be an excellent back-and-forth in the second half. Stroud is 8-2 with a 107.2 QB rating at home, and the only losses were to divisional rivals Indianapolis and Jacksonville last season. Buffalo breaks the trend. 

Pick: Bills 33, Texans 27

MORE: How Josh Allen fumble halted Bills’ comeback vs. Ravens

• Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5) 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox 

The Raiders managed to beat Cleveland despite injuries to key players such as Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams, but the tag team of Alexander Mattison and Zamir White kept Las Vegas in business. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has benefitted from a strong defense that allowed 29 points in the past three weeks. The Raiders have won eight straight games against the Broncos since moving to Las Vegas. Nix ends that streak. 

Pick: Broncos 18, Raiders 17

MORE: Tyler Badie injury update after scary sideline incident | Bo Nix throws for -7 yards in first half vs. Jets

• Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m.,, Fox 

The 49ers have the largest spread of the week against the Cardinals, who have been wildly inconsistent in their past three losses. San Francisco has forced five turnovers in two games — both covers — and they have won the past three meetings against Arizona by an average of 22 points per game. The Cardinals struggle against the run (146.5), which means another 100-yard game for Jordan Mason. Brock Purdy tacks on a pair of TDs. 

Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 17

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• Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS 

Jordan Love threw three interceptions in his first game back from an MCL sprain, but the Packers found a rhythm in the second half in the loss to the Vikings. The Rams are struggling without receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Cupp. This is Green Bay’s second trip to Los Angeles since the Rams relocated from St. Louis. The Packers have won the past four meetings. Love was 4-5 S/U on the road last season, but Green Bay should be fine if he avoids the same turnovers. 

Pick: Packers 28, Rams 18 

MORE: Fans joke about Jordan Love’s tribute to Brett Favre | Christian Watson injury update

• New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6) 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS 

The pressure is on Daniel Jones for a Giants’ team that generated 18 points per game the past three weeks in a series of one-score games. Seattle is coming off a short week, but Geno Smith has managed to stay on schedule at quarterback with first-year coach Mike Macdonald. The Giants are 2-8 S/U and 4-6 ATS in their past 10 games as a road underdog under Brian Daboll. 

Pick: Seahawks 28, Giants 20 

MORE: Drops — not Daniel Jones — doom Giants vs. Cowboys | Malik Nabers injury update

• Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock 

Dallas and Pittsburgh have met five times this century, and those games have been decided by 4.8 points per game. Justin Fields totaled 367 yards in the Week 4 loss to Indianapolis, and he continues to improve with each week. The Cowboys’ defense could be without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, and that puts more pressure on Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are 2-0 S/U on the road this year, however, and Prescott finds a way — perhaps with the help of a Brandon Aubrey field goal — to lead Dallas to a surprising upset on the road. 

Pick: Cowboys 24, Steelers 23

MORE: Micah Parsons injury update

• New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5) 

Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC 

The Chiefs continue to play through injuries, and Rashee Rice is the latest one that leaves a hole at receiver. That means Patrick Mahomes will rely more on Kareem Hunter and Travis Kelce, who got on track with seven catches for 89 yards in Week 4. The Saints have lost two in a row, but they are 2-0 ATS on the road this season with a top-10 defense that allows just 17.7 points per game. 

Pick: Chiefs 21, Saints 17

MORE: Rashee Rice injury update | Chiefs will need even more from Travis Kelce