Cowboys vs. Steelers Week 5 predictions: ‘SNF’ NFL odds, picks, best bets

Despite winning the time of possession battle and out-gaining Indianapolis in total yards, Pittsburgh suffered its first loss of the season last week in Indianapolis.

The Steelers return home in Week 5 to host Dallas on “Sunday Night Football.” They opened as 1.5-point underdogs but now enter as 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 44 points.

The Cowboys had struggled to stop the run through the first three weeks of the season, but they held the Giants to just 26 rushing yards in Week 4, a showing reminiscent of their top-five defense of a year ago.

Here’s a preview of Sunday night’s game with our best bets on the over/under and against the spread.

But, first, let’s take a look at the latest odds.

Cowboys vs. Steelers odds

Cowboys vs. Steelers bet

This season, the Steelers have covered the spread in three of their first four games, while Dallas has a 1-3 record against the spread (ATS). 

Expect Dallas to struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks seventh in defensive DVOA and has the highest pass-rush grade in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. It will be up against a Cowboys offensive line that has been suspect, especially at both tackle positions. 

Terence Steele and rookie Tyler Guyton have received the 49th-highest and 53rd-highest pass-blocking grades out of 58 tackles with a 50% minimum snap count of the maximum blocks snaps.

Simply put, this is a bad matchup for Dallas. The Steelers deploy a four-time Defensive Player of the Year finalist in TJ Watt and a three-time First Team All-Pro in Cameron Heyward.

Since the Cowboys are one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL (30th in yards per attempts and 32nd in yards per game), Pittsburgh will be able to focus all of its defensive attention on pressuring Dak Prescott and making him uncomfortable.

Prescott is 1-8 ATS as an underdog in his last nine starts, and the Cowboys are a league-worst 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.

Pittsburgh should have no problem shutting down the one-dimensional, pass-heavy Dallas offense Sunday night. Plus, this is a perfect bounce-back spot for the Steelers, who are looking to rebound from a sloppy road loss.

Best bet: Steelers moneyline (-148, FanDuel)

Cowboys vs. Steelers over/under

Due to their subpar defense through four weeks, the Cowboys have a 3-1 Over record.

Conversely, the Steelers (13.2 points per game allowed) have played lockdown defense, so only one of their games have eclipsed the point total.

We know the Steelers’ defense will show up and wreak havoc, but will the Cowboys be able to parlay their defensive effort from Week 4 into this outing?

Betting on the NFL?

Dallas’ run defense appeared much-improved in Week 4, holding the Giants to just 26 rushing yards. A focused effort here would be huge toward its chances of keeping this game low-scoring and within striking distance, as Justin Fields is not a huge threat in the passing game.

Still, the Cowboys will be without Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, their two best pass rushers, meaning it could be a big day for Fields and the Steelers offense.

Even so, the under gets a slight lean from us due to the likely offensive struggles for Dallas, and the spread will be our main play.

Best bet: Slight lean toward Under 44 points (-112, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.