Predicting the New York Knicks’ depth chart: Who starts? Who makes the roster?

A masterclass in financial gymnastics by Leon Rose, Brock Aller and the rest of the New York Knicks front office has the organization with one of the NBA’s best starting lineups and, potentially, a title-contending team. However, due to all that New York had to give up to acquire the likes of OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, there is some show-and-prove as it pertains to the team’s depth. Toss in the fact that Mitchell Robinson is out until, at least, December, and Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau may need some time to piece together his rotation.

As things stand now, New York has 12 roster spots filled and needs to hit the league minimum of 14 by the start of the season. New York, though, is restricted in how it can finish its roster due to the financial crunch it faces after acquiring several core pieces. To avoid the second apron and still finalize the roster, the Knicks can only sign a veteran-minimum player and guarantee a player on a rookie deal (more on this later). That’s the cost of building a top-heavy team, one that, name-for-name, stacks up with any roster in the NBA.

Without revealing too much over the first week of training camp, Thibodeau has said enough that one could read the tea leaves on how New York’s roster and rotation might look once the regular season starts. To piece it all together, I’m going to predict what I believe New York’s depth chart will be, what Thibodeau’s rotation will look like and some tidbits on the final two roster spots.

(Writer’s note: The depth chart will not include Robinson because he’s out for several months.)

Final two roster spots

I’m penciling in Shamet and Hukporti for the last two roster spots. As it pertains to the former, I feel very, very confident that Shamet will be a Knick when the regular season starts. Thibodeau has not only spoken highly of what the veteran guard brings in terms of his shooting, but also he’s acknowledged that Shamet’s held up well defensively throughout camp. I’ll even go a step further and say that not only will Shamet make the team, but also he’ll be a nightly rotation player. That’s just the sense I’ve gotten from Thibodeau over the last week when he talks about Shamet and the potential of the second unit.

Shamet, who is entering his seventh NBA season, is on a non-guaranteed deal and his contract doesn’t have to be guaranteed until January, so he’s a prime candidate to get one of the last two roster spots from a financial perspective alone.

As it pertains to Hukporti, he won’t be someone Thibodeau leans on, but financially it makes sense to have him on the roster. The rookie is on a two-way deal and converting him to a standard, rookie contract would allow New York to stay under the second apron. With Robinson out for a while and Towns’ recent injury history not being great, I get the sense the Knicks will try to have as much insurance as possible at the center position.

If New York needs Hukporti, that means something(s) went terribly wrong. I do think the Knicks prefer to have an extra big body around because of the depth at wing and guard already on the roster.

For those still confused about the first and second apron, why Hukporti will make the team and so on, this is the best explainer I can give: The Knicks are, roughly, $3.6 million from the second apron. A team cannot go into the second apron.

Shamet will only count against the cap for $2,087,519 once his contract is guaranteed. And to get to the minimum 14 roster spots, Hukporti, from a financial standpoint, is the only player who makes sense because of his years of experience.

The minimum salary for a second-round rookie is $1,157,153. Those two salaries combined don’t exceed $3.6 million. If you’re asking yourself, “Why not Kevin McCullar Jr., Jacob Toppin or Chuma Okeke instead of Hukporti?” that’s a fair question.

Well, McCullar is still dealing with a knee injury and may be out for a while. Toppin has one year of NBA experience, and the minimum salary for that is over $1.8 million, which would put New York over the second apron. The minimum salaries increase as the years of experience grow, which eliminates Okeke. That is why I believe Hukporti will get the last roster spot.

How deep will Thibs’ rotation be?

On most nights, Thibodeau will go nine deep with his rotation. I could see him occasionally going to 10 depending on the circumstances of the game, if a player is struggling or if he feels a player deserves an opportunity, but Thibodeau will regularly count on nine players each night.

Which nine players, you ask? Here you go: Brunson, Hart, Bridges, Anunoby, Towns, McBride, Shamet, Achiuwa and Sims.

I’m expecting Thibodeau to get creative with how he staggers the likes of Hart, Bridges and Anunoby. One or two of those names likely will be on the floor at all times. The wing rotation is the very least of this team’s worries.

If Thibodeau decides to play 10, those minutes, in my opinion, will go to Payne. I’ve got McBride listed as the backup “shooting guard,” but that’s only to help provide a visual. McBride is more of a scoring guard, but I believe he’ll take on the ballhandling responsibilities in the minutes that Brunson is off the floor and McBride is on.

Payne is the veteran Thibodeau can trust and, by all accounts, has looked solid alongside Shamet and McBride behind closed doors with the second unit. Rookie guard Tyler Kolek, too, could get spot minutes here and there, and Thibodeau may elect to go with him over Payne at points in the season when the coach decides to go to 10 men. The rookie’s name hasn’t come up a ton over the last seven days, but it is my understanding that the Knicks think Kolek will contribute to this team in due time. He had impressive moments in the preseason-opening win against Charlotte, scoring 11 points on 3-of-5 3-point shooting.

Sims will eat up some center minutes until Robinson returns, but I also could see Thibodeau going small in rare instances with either Hart or Anunoby at center. I’m curious to see how the center rotation looks in the first few weeks of this new campaign.

Will Josh Hart for sure start?

Yeah, I’m fairly confident Hart will be the opening-night starter.

I’ve seen some people suggest McBride, but I just don’t see it. Not only has Thibodeau said nothing to suggest that, but also Hart is a low-maintenance, do-it-all player who perfectly fits into this potentially switch-heavy defensive scheme that has been mentioned.

With the Knicks only having one traditional big in the starting lineup, it would behoove New York to have one of the league’s best rebounding guards in that group to help make up for the lack of size. Furthermore, Hart takes pressure off of Brunson as he can defend the opponent’s best guard. Offensively, I think Hart’s 3-point shooting will get back to its normal level. He was a 35 percent 3-point shooter for his career before last season when he shot a career-low 31 percent from 3. One very bad 3-point shooting season doesn’t concern me when his history has been relatively positive.

New York’s starting lineup is going to provide a lot of space not just for Brunson to navigate as a ballhandler, but also for Hart as a cutter. He’s a perfect fit for this group, in my opinion. I’d be very surprised if he started the year coming off the bench.

(Photo of Anunoby, Brunson and Hart: Nathaniel S. Butler / NBAE via Getty Images)