Lineup changes for Game 3 as Phillies-Mets NLDS shifts to New York?

Nick Castellanos was the standout hero Sunday with his fifth walk-off of the year and the Phillies’ 11th, but that might not have even been the biggest hit of Game 2 of the NLDS.

Bryson Stott’s two-out, two-strike, two-run triple down one in the eighth plated Bryce Harper and Castellanos after a walk and single, put the Phillies ahead, and in terms of win probability, increased their chances of victory by 43%, the most impactful single event of Game 2.

It was the kind of knock Stott has been looking for all season and may have helped wipe away months of frustration, but there’s a good chance he could find himself on the bench along with Brandon Marsh to begin Game 3 on Tuesday at Citi Field.

The Phillies will face left-handed starter Sean Manaea as the series transitions to New York. A free-agent-to-be, Manaea had a career year, going 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 184 strikeouts in 181⅔ innings.

Manaea has always been difficult on lefties and that’s only been amplified since a midseason change to his delivery. He’s even more of a side-armer now and has been hugely successful as one. After implementing the change in late July, he led to the Mets to 10 wins in his next 11 starts, pitching to a 2.63 ERA.

He faced the Phillies in the 2022 NLDS with the Padres and was blown up, allowing five runs and six baserunners while facing just nine batters. Though that was a different version of Manaea. This season, he faced them three times, giving up one run over six innings in May, six in 3⅔ in June and three over seven innings in September.

Stott is 3-for-7 with a homer and two walks lifetime against Manaea. Marsh is 0-for-3.

All manager Rob Thomson said Monday was “we’ll see” when asked if there would be changes to the lineup against a left-handed starter in Game 3. Stott and Marsh started the first two games vs. Kodai Senga and Luis Severino. The Phillies routinely sat them this season when facing a lefty and have likely had a plan in place since the series began to start Edmundo Sosa at second base and Austin Hays in left field against Mets’ lefties, Manaea and Game 4 starter Jose Quintana.

If this was July, there might be more consideration to starting Stott after a big hit to help maintain his long-term confidence, and Thomson may very well be considering it. But every plate appearance in the playoffs matters, and it’s not as if sitting on the bench the first two times through the order means Stott or Marsh will be relegated there all game. They’d be in as soon as Manaea exits.

“Just giving guys a heads up that we might move a little bit earlier than usual so that they’re not surprised,” Thomson said before Game 1. “Gotta be ready a little bit earlier than usual.”

Sosa has had a lot of success against Manaea, going 4-for-8 with a double, triple and homer. He’s 3-for-9 with a double off Quintana.

Hays is 2-for-3 with a homer off Manaea and doubled in his only at-bat vs. Quintana.

Hays is here for his ability to hit lefties and Sosa is here for that along with his defensive versatility. Not using them in Games 3 or 4 would go against a philosophy the Phillies have held the last three years.

Bohm back in

Alec Bohm will be back in the lineup at third base after being benched to begin Game 2. He is 2-for-31 dating back to the regular season and has shown his frustration in-game, slamming his helmet more than the Phillies would like. They’ve talked to him about it and clearly don’t love the negative energy it creates. It was telling that Thomson kept using the word energy pregame Sunday when asked why he went with Sosa over Bohm.

“Oh yeah, he’s playing tomorrow,” Thomson said of Bohm. “I think he’s in a good spot.”

They need him to be. Despite the season-ending slump, Bohm hit .301 with runners in scoring position and .303 on the road, the Phillies’ top hitter away from Citizens Bank Park. He’s a big reason why they won 95 games and a return to form will be crucial in facilitating the 10 more that matter most.

“Sometimes this game is unforgiving,” Bohm said Monday. “I think the only thing I can do is keep going up there, keep putting my best foot forward and play the best defense that I can. Eventually, I’m gonna get there. I’m gonna start hitting, and it’s gonna come soon.

“Confidence can be an individual thing, but it can also be a group thing. So, just kind of get lost within the team. I think whenever I walk up there, it’s getting closer and closer to coming through.”