Mets vs. Phillies prediction: NLDS Game 3 odds, picks, best bets

I had a difficult time seeing a Phillies team as capable and experienced as this one go down 0-2 in a divisional series. 

The bats came up clutch time and again through Nick Castellanos’ walk-off single in Game 2 in yet another topsy-turvy ride for the Mets over the last week. 

This kind of poise — born from falling in the World Series followed by an NLCS defeat — contrasted with a magical Mets camaraderie is making for some classic baseball, and those kinds of intangibles will never factor into playoff lines.

We’re looking at a total set as low as seven runs for Game 3’s shift to Citi Field on Tuesday. 

Mets vs. Phillies odds

Oddsmakers will always favor strong pitching over hitting in the postseason; the temperature drops making home runs harder to come by and there’s just a little more oomph in fielding.

On paper, that should be the case between two vets in Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea, though I’m still opting to fade that prognosis again. 

Nola looks to pick up where he left off from a sound 2023 postseason run that made for a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

His 2024 regular season took a dip in strikeout rate with a bump in walks per nine innings and pitching WAR (Wins Above Replacement), per FanGraphs. 

Follow The Post’s coverage of the Mets in the postseason:

I’m also not sold on Manaea’s competence in the postseason as his subpar track record welcomed a new installment in last week’s Game 2 start in the Wild Card round, making for six hits and a pair of earned runs in five innings. 

According to Statcast, Manaea’s most vulnerable spot to batted balls is the bull’s-eye center of the strike zone and the Phillies were the second-best team hitting meatballs.

Besides, of the 21 runs that have been scored in this series, bullpens are responsible for 15 of them.

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

Both the Mets and Phillies have churned out over the league average of weighted runs created plus through these last two games, which accounts for external factors when measuring offensive production. 

With the series lead up for grabs, let’s lean on the one-upping in the box score to continue in this bloodthirsty rivalry. 

THE PLAY: Mets-Phillies Game 3 Over 7 runs (-122, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.