Mets vs. Phillies Game 4 prediction: NLDS odds, picks, best bets Wednesday

Yes, this Phillies core has gone 0-2 when facing elimination in the last two postseasons, but the Mets are also 0-2 in closeout games where they have a series lead in that span. 

There were no momentum shifts in Game 3, as the Mets tacked on six unanswered runs before claiming the 2-1 series lead with a 7-2 result against the Phillies. 

The Mets were granted a gem from Sean Manaea and starting pitching did in fact play a decisive role.

The stars are aligning for it to do so again, just for both sides of the diamond in Game 4.

Mets vs. Phillies Game 4 NLDS odds

You can grab the Under of 7.5 runs for a reasonable price at DraftKings. It’s a line that has been cashed in only three of the 10 divisional series games so far; however, I’m confident enough in both Ranger Suárez and Jose Quintana to attempt to shake their respective clubs’ aforementioned slumps.  

Suárez claimed two wins in three starts against the Mets. He maintained a 2.30 ERA and pitched at least five innings in each of those appearances. 

The southpaw hasn’t started since Sept. 27 — a 9-1 loss to the Nationals that lasted for two innings. Regardless, he has been a rock in this rotation over the course of the last two postseasons. Suárez owns a 1.62 ERA over 33 ⅓ innings, which consist of some heavy moments he’s answered the bell for, including the final out to clinch the NL pennant in 2022 and starting the NLDS clincher in 2023. 

Jose Quintana counters with a 2.81 ERA throughout 16 innings against the Phillies; he pitched seven shutout innings against them in an 11-3 win on Sept. 13.

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He’s propelling off Thursday’s classic wild-card triumph over the Brewers, where he steered the Mets through six scoreless innings. That improved Quintana’s reliable playoff resume to a 0.97 WHIP in 24 ⅔ innings. 

We can talk numbers and trends until we’re blue in the face, but the crux is that the Phillies have too much to lose given they opened the postseason with the second-best odds to win the World Series. 

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The Mets have the momentum of a raucous Queens home crowd and the incentive to win their first divisional series in nine years. 

Let’s expect all the stops to be pulled from both managers in defending runs in Game 4. 

THE PLAY: Under 7.5 Runs (-118, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.