Betting buzz: Expect Mets to be underdogs in NLCS

Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET

Oct. 10: Mets expected to be NLCS underdogs to Dodgers or Padres

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Francisco Lindor celebrates Mets’ NLCS: ‘We can do special things’

Francisco Lindor describes his emotions following a 3-1 series win over the Phillies in the MLB NLDS.

David Purdum: On June 11, the New York Mets were nine games below .500, their odds to win the National League pennant had drifted to a season-long 100-1 at ESPN BET, and fans were grimacing. At the time, the Pittsburgh Pirates were attracting more support from bettors at BetMGM than the Mets, who were 150-1 long shots to win the World Series. Four months later, though, the Mets are headed to NLCS to face the winner of the San Diego Padres–Los Angeles Dodgers series.

Having already secured their spot in the NLCS, the Mets, at +360, were listed as the third-favorite to win the World Series on Thursday at ESPN BET. The New York Yankees (+225) and Dodgers (+325) were just ahead of the Mets.

The Mets are expected to be mid-sized underdogs, around +150 in the NLCS against the Dodgers or Padres, oddsmakers say. The Dodgers host the Padres in a decisive Game 5 of their divisional series Friday and are -145 favorites.

MLB’s postseason is full of long shots, including the Mets. The Detroit Tigers were 500-1 to win the World Series in September, and the Kansas City Royals began the season at 150-1. The Tigers lead their divisional series with the Cleveland Guardians 2-1. Detroit is a small underdog in Thursday’s Game 4. The Royals trail the Yankees 2-1 in their divisional series and a +125 underdog against the Yankees in Thursday’s Game 4.

Oct. 8: New York Jets odds remain stationary after Saleh firing

Doug Greenberg: Coming into the season, the expectations for the New York Jets were high, a notion supported by sportsbooks when they made the team the favorite to win the AFC East. After a 2-3 start, though, the Jets have moved from their opener at +160 to +325, per ESPN BET odds, which is still second best in the dismal division.

The slow start also led to the dismissal of Robert Saleh, the first head-coach firing of the NFL season. Despite the shocking news, New York remains a 2.5-point underdog for Monday night’s matchup with the division-leading Buffalo Bills and its futures have remained stationary.

“While the Jets have struggled early on this year, they were one of the most popular teams coming out of the offseason,” DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello told ESPN over text. “With the coaching change, bettors are buying into the fact that this team might still be able to turn things around and reach their full potential.”

Indeed, the sportsbooks have serious liability on the Jets from before the season and likely can’t afford to make them any more appealing to bettors. BetMGM reported that NYJ is its biggest liability to win the AFC East, and ESPN BET said the Jets had a leading 24% of handle to win the AFC at the beginning of the season.

Bettors are looking to buy low on the team, too; on Tuesday alone at DraftKings, New York has taken 86% of the money to win the division and 49% of the handle to win the conference.

ESPN FPI predicts the Jets still have a 58% chance to make the playoffs, slightly better than the 57% chance they had at the beginning of the season. Entering the campaign, they showed -155 to make the playoffs and sit at +105 as of Tuesday afternoon, per ESPN BET odds.

For more NFL odds to win the division, conference and Super Bowl, click here.

Oct. 5: Vanderbilt upsets No. 1 Alabama as 22.5-point underdog

Greenberg: There are no certainties in college football, especially when it comes to conference rivalries.

Unranked Vanderbilt took down No. 1 Alabama on Saturday evening after closing as a 22.5-point underdog at ESPN BET. It’s the second-largest outright upset this season — behind only Northern Illinois’ 28.5-point underdog victory against Notre Dame — and the largest against a top-ranked team since 2008, when Oregon State took down USC in Corvallis.

The Crimson Tide were a popular pick with the public, attracting upwards of 62% of the bets at BetMGM and maxing out at 89% of ticket share at DraftKings.

It is the Commodores’ biggest upset in more than 45 seasons. Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia is now the only starting quarterback in the past 20 seasons to pull off three outright wins as at least a 21-point underdog, having done so with New Mexico State against Auburn in 2023 (+25.5) and against Liberty in 2022 (+24).

Alabama entered Saturday’s action as the favorite to win the national championship at +375 and dropped to +550 following the loss, fourth on the odds board behind Ohio State (+325), Georgia (+450) and Texas (+500).

ESPN Research’s Mackenzie Kraemer contributed data for this piece.

Other notes from around the country:

• UConn closed as a 17.5-point favorite over Temple, its largest spread as a favorite over an FBS opponent since 2012. The Huskies won 29-20 in East Hartford, scoring a touchdown as time expired that pushed the game over the total of 48.5.

• Army and Marshall both won and covered the spread in their games, moving to 5-0 ATS this season.

• Alabama’s Jalen Milroe entered the day as the Heisman Trophy favorite but dropped from +260 to +600 after the loss to Vanderbilt. Boise State running Back Ashton Jeanty is the new Heisman favorite, moving from 10-1 to +275.

Oct. 4: Sportsbooks preparing for under in first NFL London game of the season

Doug Greenberg: The NFL will take its talents to London for the first of three games this season when the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings square off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday. Because the long travel and jet lag could conceivably affect both teams, neither would seem to draw a betting advantage on the spread, currently set at Vikings -2.5 (-110), per ESPN BET.

A central bet that could be affected, though, is the total, which sits at 40.5 juiced -120 to the under after opening at 41.5 on ESPN BET. It’s a low number to be certain (the NFL’s average closing total this season is 43.8), but one that makes more sense within the context of this contest.

For starters, Minnesota and New York represent the fourth- and fifth-best scoring defenses in the league, allowing 14.8 and 15.5 points per game, respectively. Both teams show 3-1 records to the under.

Then there’s the context of London and European NFL games as a whole. Since 2007, when the league first started playing games across the pond, contests in the United Kingdom show a lean toward the under at 19-17. That record is 5-3 since 2021, including a 3-0 clip for the 2023 season. Adding in the two Germany matchups, European NFL games went 5-0 to the under last season.

The one caveat is that NFL games played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, as Sunday’s will be, are 5-3 to the over all-time.

“Travel has something to do with it, not being in your home,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “Some team every week is usually in their home confines, so they’re comfortable, the other team is traveling. Well, both teams are traveling here, one team from the East coast, one team from the Midwest.”

Avello also notes that scoring is down leaguewide this season, partially the result of declining passing yards.

Still, that hasn’t stopped the public from taking the over in the standalone morning game. The majority of bets are on the over at DraftKings, FanDuel and ESPN BET, which reports a high of 87.33% of tickets backing a high-scoring game. BetMGM is the only polled book with more bets backing the under at just 51%. However, BetMGM and ESPN BET also report significant money increases for the under, with DraftKings and FanDuel saying the splits are about the same across tickets and handle.

The NFL’s popularity and its associated betting continue to rise in the British Isles. At Paddy Power, a popular sportsbook in the U.K. and Ireland owned by FanDuel parent Flutter, the NFL has gone from the 10th-most popular sport in 2018, to the third-most popular in 2024 due to a “a nearly fivefold increase in the number of regular customers placing bets on the NFL,” per a Flutter representative.

Oct. 1: Milroe, Hunter, Jeanty highlight chaotic Heisman betting race

Doug Greenberg: Before the college football season began, the Heisman Trophy odds board indicated that it could be a wide-open race all year; Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel led the way at +700, the longest odds for a favorite in 15 years. Dillon has since fallen to +1400 at ESPN BET, and the names above him validate the predicted parity.

After leading Alabama to an instant classic win against Georgia in Tuscaloosa, Jalen Milroe has taken the lead in the Heisman race with +225 odds, moving up from +750 before Week 5. Just behind him is Miami QB Cam Ward (+550), who had been the leader for several weeks before Milroe’s surge.

But perhaps the most intriguing candidate is Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter. The two-way superstar opened the season at +2500, was a popular pick among bettors from the outset and has only gained more momentum throughout the season. After catching nine passes for 89 yards and a touchdown and adding an interception on defense in the Buffaloes’ big win over UCF, Hunter is now +700 to win the honor, third on the odds board.

That could hugely benefit the public should he follow through and lift the trophy. ESPN BET, DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM all report Hunter as their leader in tickets and handle for the year, with the latter confirming he is their biggest liability. Since Saturday morning, the 21-year-old has taken a leading 45% of the bets and 51% of the money at ESPN BET, with BetMGM and DraftKings also saying they’ve written more tickets on him than any other player since then.

Milroe’s big game also prompted bettors to back him, with BetMGM (34.8%) and DraftKings (41%) saying they’ve accepted the most money on him since Saturday. But the consensus third-biggest bet and handle attracter from the weekend, and the biggest mover of the season, is Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty.

The running back has taken the college football and betting world by storm early this year, rushing for an astounding 259 yards and four touchdowns on the ground against Washington State last week. Jeanty came out of nowhere to enter the Heisman conversation, as he wasn’t even offered at most sportsbooks to start the season and debuted as long as 100-1. He now sits at +1100, fourth on the odds board at ESPN BET.

Sept 30: Odds and ends from last week

$171.1 million: Nevada casinos’ net win on penny slots in August. In comparison, the state’s regulated sportsbooks won approximately $25 million during the month, according to Nevada Gaming Control.

500-1: The Detroit Tigers‘ odds to win the World Series on Sept. 9 at BetMGM sportsbooks. The Tigers clinched a playoff berth on Friday.

$50,000: The amount risked by a bettor with Caesars Sportsbook in August on the Tigers not to make the playoffs at -10,000 odds. The bettor would have won $500 if Detroit had failed to make the postseason.

1: The increase in the New York Knicks‘ season-win total, from 53.5 to 54.5, after the reported trade for Karl-Anthony Towns, according to the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

65: The percentage of bets that were parlays at FanDuel so far this year, according to the company’s earnings report released last week.

63: The number of yards of New England Patriots‘ kicker Joey Slye‘s field goal just before halftime in their game against the 49ers. It was a new career-long for Slye and secured the first half over at 20.5.

186.5: The over/under on Broncos’ quarterback Bo Nix‘s passing yards against the Jets at DraftKings. Nix finished with 60 yards passing. Nix’s 60 yards passing is the lowest total by a quarterback with at least 20 attempts in a win since Eli Manning in 2007, according to ESPN Research.