Alex Sarr: What NBA scouts are saying about the Washington Wizards rookie

WASHINGTON — First, elation.

Then, hope.

Then, panic.

And now, relief.

That’s the emotional journey Washington Wizards fans have made as they’ve followed 19-year-old rookie Alex Sarr from afar, before he’s even played a regular-season NBA game.

In May, euphoria washed over the fan base when the Wizards won the second pick in the annual draft lottery. In June, optimism peaked when the team used that choice to select Sarr, whom some analysts had ranked as the top prospect in the 2024 draft class. In July, after a promising debut in Washington’s summer-league opener, the positive vibes gave way to panic after Sarr missed all 15 of his shots in a subsequent exhibition game, a performance labeled within the blogosphere as a “historically terrible shooting night” and “the worst NBA Summer League game ever,” among other overwrought hot takes. On Sunday, in a strong showing in the Wizards’ preseason opener, Sarr scored 15 efficient points, gathered three rebounds and blocked one shot.

So, what’s the most likely outcome for Sarr’s future? How will the towering French big man play this season and develop in the years ahead?

To answer those questions, and to tip off The Athletic’s annual series on the Wizards’ top prospects, I spoke with talent evaluators who work for rival NBA teams and asked them to evaluate Sarr’s strengths and weaknesses.

The Athletic grants these talent evaluators anonymity because front offices almost never allow their scouts to speak to news outlets for publication. Without granting anonymity, articles such as this one, in which scouts’ evaluations are conveyed, would not exist. In addition, anonymity allows the scouts to be completely honest, without fear of reprisals.

If there was one common thread from those conversations with scouts about Sarr, it’s that his potential will require some time to unlock. As Scout A put it, “I don’t want to call him necessarily a ‘project,’ but he’s a developmental player.”

What makes Sarr’s case even more interesting is the context of the 2024 NBA Draft itself. While the draft was said to have good depth throughout the first round, it was widely believed to have few, if any, franchise-changing prospects at its very top. While The Athletic predicted the 2023 draft featured as many five players thought to have at least projectable All-Star upside — Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Cam Whitmore, Brandon Miller and Amen Thompson — none of 2024’s prospects ranked higher than a “high-leverage starter,” according to the same ranking system. Sarr sat atop that draft board, but that ranking could be considered faint praise given the presumed low ceilings of the top prospects.

The most optimistic appraisal of Sarr’s future came from Scout B, and the scout’s appraisal appears to fall in line with the judgment of the Wizards’ front office and Wizards coach Brian Keefe. It’s Sarr’s defensive potential that makes him special.

“I know what the summer-league narrative may be, but a lot of that stuff seemed to be correctable,” Scout B said. “As he starts to play with NBA players and he starts to understand what his role is, the offensive production is going to be the cherry on top of someone that can be an incredibly impactful defender. To be able to protect the basket and still be able to guard on the perimeter — it’s what you’re hoping for.”

Sarr’s strengths

Any discussion about Sarr’s best attributes should begin with his uncommon combination of height, long arms and agility. He measured 6 feet 11 3/4 without shoes during May’s NBA Draft Combine, with a 7-foot-4 1/4 wingspan. Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan, two other lottery-pick bigs from the 2024 draft class, are taller than Sarr and have longer arms, but Edey and Clingan don’t possess Sarr’s straight-ahead speed or lateral dexterity.

“The biggest thing is his mobility and motor, his ability to run the floor and switch and contain on the perimeter as well as be someone who can protect the rim,” Scout C said.

That defensive upside intrigued the Wizards throughout the draft process, and team officials continue to say they envision Sarr excelling eventually as a modern defensive big: someone adept on the inside as a shot blocker and rim deterrent but also capable of switching onto perimeter players.

“Right now,” Keefe said, “the main focus for Alex is his defense. We think he can be an elite, versatile defender. So that’s our main focus right now, to get him (up to speed on) all the terminology and schemes that we’re going to do but just getting that energy nice and high. We think he can be a really impactful defender.”

Just how versatile do the Wizards think Sarr is? Put it this way: In Washington’s first two preseason exhibitions, Keefe started him at power forward alongside center Jonas Valančiūnas and shifted Sarr to center when Valančiūnas, Marvin Bagley III or Richaun Holmes is off the floor.

Already, Sarr has provided indications that he, even at this early stage of his career, is at least competent when he switches onto forwards and wings on the perimeter. In Washington’s preseason opener, Toronto’s RJ Barrett and Jonathan Mogbo had opportunities to drive past Sarr but didn’t attempt to do so.

The video clip that follows illustrates Sarr’s ability to accelerate in quick bursts. Raptors guard Jamal Shead rejects a screen from teammate Kelly Olynyk and attempts to blow by the Wizards’ Bub Carrington. Sarr, who had been guarding Olynyk, helps Carrington on Shead’s foray toward the basket, and Sarr has no problem matching Shead stride-for-stride. With the path to the hoop obstructed, Shead winds up kicking the ball back to Olynyk for a wide-open, feet-set 3 from the top of the arc, which is a bad shot to give up. But, at the same time, Sarr demonstrated his foot speed and his agility, and he showed a capability that Washington’s defense can employ in the future.

What that play represents should not be underestimated. Especially for a modern big, protecting the rim means more than being a shot-blocking threat; protecting the rim also means being able to cut off drives before opponents reach the hoop.

No wonder, then, that Wizards coaches, who pore over every piece of film, noticed that specific sequence. Asked about Sarr’s speed and agility on that specific sequence, Keefe answered, “It’s probably why we drafted him. This is some of the gifts that he has, right? This is why we keep talking about his defensive versatility to be able to guard on the perimeter guards and then being able to play down low and protect the rim against bigs.

“He’s going to learn. There’s still a lot for him to learn. So, these are just the first couple of steps, but those are the things we’re going to keep focusing on.”

The scouts’ opinions diverged a bit on Sarr’s ability to contain smalls on the perimeter.

“Can he contain for a few seconds at the end of the shot clock? Yes,” Scout D said. “That’s what it really comes down to. I don’t think you’re going to be able to build a defense around being able to switch one-to-five, although with the size they’ve just brought in with these three guys (Sarr, Carrington and guard/wing Kyshawn George), I think they’re going to attempt it at some point. If it’s a late-clock switch type of thing, I think he’s more than fine being able to move his feet, and he obviously has a giant wingspan to get out there and contest a couple shots from guards.”

Scout B was more optimistic about Sarr’s defensive versatility, particularly in a wide range of pick-and-roll coverages.

“Bigs have to have defensive versatility now to be impactful, and defensive versatility requires the ability to play multiple schemes in pick-and-roll coverage,” Scout B said. “He doesn’t have to just drop (for the team) to protect him. He can blitz a pick-and-roll. He can switch. Or he can drop. … I think defensively his ceiling is just enormous. He really could be someone that anchors one of the best seven defenses in the league.”

In 47 total minutes this preseason, Sarr has blocked four shots, demonstrating his ability to make up ground in transition. On Wednesday against the New York Knicks, he swatted away an up-and-under layup attempt by Jalen Brunson, tracked down a transition layup attempt by OG Anunoby and, in the clip that follows, stoned Karl-Anthony Towns on a drive to the hoop.

No one should forget that Sarr is a “developmental player.” But his height, length, agility and quick reactions should be considered critical starting points.

The need for patience is even greater with his offensive game, which is raw. But even on that end, he’s shown some promising capabilities as a stretch big. When he made only two of his 17 3-point tries during the Las Vegas Summer League, his shooting motion did not look broken. This preseason, he’s made five of his 10 attempts from deep. No one expects him to continue hitting 50 percent of his 3s, but that early success rate indicates his shot isn’t broken. One of the reasons for Sarr’s recent improvement might be that he’s in better shape now than he was during the summer league.

“He showed flashes as a catch-and-shoot guy” during his prior stops with Overtime Elite and the NBL’s Perth Wildcats, Scout C said, adding, “If the shooting comes along, then you have someone who perhaps can get you a 100-plus 3 makes in a season and average two or three blocks a game. That’s where the hope is.”

During summer league, Sarr rarely, if ever, displayed any power on the offensive end. When he had opportunities to roll off screens, he instead defaulted to settling for midrange jumpers.

In the preseason opener, however, Sarr did roll and cut to the hoop with power, finishing with three dunks in that exhibition.

And that’s an element to his game that Sarr and his teammates need to exploit.

“He can catch a lob,” Scout D said. “He can finish a lob. I know everyone wants to point to the summer-league game when he went 0 for 15. He’s better than that, and I think the whole league knows that he’s better than that. But he’s a shot blocker and play finisher.”

Sarr’s weaknesses

Yes, Sarr has a unique blend of height, long arms and agility.

But right now, his frame is too thin to withstand 82 games’ worth of physicality from the NBA’s most rough-and-tumble bigs. In May, he weighed in at 224 pounds, lighter than any player at the combine who was at least 6-foot-10. For comparison’s sake, Edey tipped the scales at 299 pounds while Clingan weighed 282 pounds. Valančiūnas, who is one of the league’s most physical centers, is 7 feet tall and listed at 270 pounds.

It’s common for young bigs entering the NBA to require several years to build what they sometimes call their “grown-man strength,” and Sarr is an extreme example. Despite his length, he may have problems early in his career gathering defensive rebounds when stronger opponents box-out effectively.

“It’s going to take him probably two years to get his body better than what it is right now, to where he can sustain physical contact on the court,” Scout A said. “So, that’s two years of not only developing his body but also developing his game.”

Scout C said: “The body needs work. Obviously, he’s got to get stronger. He’s got to get a little bit more consistent as an offensive player, but that will come with time. I think in the NBA game the simplicity of the position may help him progress. But he’s going to have to be somewhat elite defensively in order to justify the pick.”

It’s through this lens that the Wizards’ decision to acquire Valančiūnas in an offseason sign-and-trade makes sense. Valančiūnas can open games at center and match up defensively against bruisers such as Steven Adams and Joel Embiid, while Sarr can play power forward and guard less physical opponents. Valančiūnas helps the Wizards’ front office protect Sarr while allowing Sarr to log significant minutes early in his career. Sarr also can be Valančiūnas’ backup at center.

“I think they’ve done some very interesting, subtle things over the last couple of months to put Alex Sarr in a position to succeed,” Scout B said. “I say that with full respect, because I think they’re trying to put him in a position to be unlocked. That refers mostly to Valančiūnas. If he’s paired with someone like Valančiūnas, who can shoot and is a physical presence, it’s going to save (Sarr) and allow them to deploy him defensively on anyone.”

The Wizards would acknowledge that Sarr’s offensive skills are behind his defensive skills.

There were moments in the preseason opener when teammates’ passes went through Sarr’s hands. The play that follows, in which Carrington delivers an off-target pass, is an example.

As The Athletic’s John Hollinger noted about Sarr after summer league, “His passing gives him potential as a short roller, but he has to catch the ball first; the same goes for his work on the glass, where contested rebounds are a real problem. In both situations, there are too many times when he looks like a backup tight end trying to trap the ball against his pads.”

The bigger concern that arose during the summer league was Sarr’s overall approach on offense — and the role the Wizards allowed him to play. It was a good thing for Sarr to have attempted wide-open 3-pointers in which his feet were set, even if he missed those shots. But too often he seemed to view himself as a playmaking point guard or shooting guard, attempting to drive from the perimeter past defenders. This sequence, from Washington’s summer-league opener, demonstrates that style of play.

Experimenting during summer league is fine, especially if it teaches a young player his weaknesses and what won’t work in the NBA. No harm, no foul. After all, the scores of the exhibitions don’t count. They’re meant to be teaching and learning tools.

But problems would arise if a youngster continues to play in a way that doesn’t make sense for him or his team. The best players play to their strengths, and Sarr’s emphases on offense right now should be shooting feet-set 3s, rolling to the hoop and finishing lobs. The Wizards’ front office and coaching staff talk all the time about “building habits,” and one of the most important habits for a young player to learn is to stick to what he does best, because efficiency is good for the team, and shore up weak areas in practice and during offseasons. As Scout D said, just because a player can be successful every so often driving to the hoop, it doesn’t make sense to drive to the hoop repeatedly if he’s going to get stopped or turn the ball over the vast majority of the time.

So far in the preseason, Sarr has adhered to a stricter structure. Still, this is something to watch for — and for Sarr, to avoid — as the regular season progresses.

Sarr’s future

A 10-second span during the Wizards’ second preseason game illustrates Sarr’s weaknesses and strengths. In the clip below, he finds himself with the ball inside the midcourt line against Anunoby, who is one of the league’s best all-around defenders. With no teammate nearby, Sarr attempts to dribble himself out of trouble, and Anunoby steals the ball.

Anunoby speeds ahead in transition and, if he had been facing most other 7-footers, should gain enough separation for a dunk or a layup. But Sarr tracks down Anunoby from behind easily and blocks the shot.

Because the Wizards are in the early stages of a rebuild and because they would be best served to finish this season with one of the league’s worst records, the team will have the luxury to play Sarr heavy minutes and let him learn from his mistakes. Having Valančiūnas on the roster should insulate Sarr from the toughest matchups.

In discussions with scouts, the comp that came up most often was center Dereck Lively II, who had been the 12th pick in the 2023 draft and played a key defensive and lob-threat role for the Dallas Mavericks as they reached the NBA Finals.

“If he becomes that Dereck Lively type of player, that’s a win,” Scout D said. “Especially in a draft like this year’s, that’s a huge win.”

Scout C said: “The hope is he turns into the player that Lively has turned into, where he’s a lob threat, he plays with energy, he rim-runs really well and defensively he’s not only a rim protector but he can also switch on the perimeter and contain the guards and the wings.”

Sarr’s goal in the next few years should be to exceed Lively and try to establish himself as someone who can anchor a top-tier defense.

(Photo: Evan Bernstein / Getty Images)