Padres vs. Dodgers Game 5 prediction: NLDS odds, picks, best bets Friday

It’s only fitting that the hotly contested Dodgers-Padres NLDS comes down to a decisive Game 5, and that’s exactly what we’ll be getting on Friday night in Los Angeles.

The Padres will start Yu Darvish, who allowed only three hits and one earned run in San Diego’s commanding Game 2 victory.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, have yet to announce a starter. 

Padres vs. Dodgers Game 5 odds

Padres vs. Dodgers Game 5 prediction

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is rested (he faced Darvish in Game 2) but has been highly ineffective in his last three starts for the Dodgers, pitching to an ERA of 9.00 and allowing a WHIP of 1.72. 

Jack Flaherty, acquired in a trade with the Tigers at the deadline, has had comparable struggles of late, with an ERA of 6.52 across his last five outings. 

Dave Roberts put rookie starter Landon Knack into the series in Wednesday’s Game 4 blowout, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the talented young righty make an appearance in this matchup as well. 

What is clear is this: Roberts doesn’t have an overly strong choice for this critical matchup, and most logical options are right-handers, which is problematic.

That’s because San Diego has hit to a wRC+ of 121 versus righties since Aug. 1 and finished the season with a third-best wRC+ versus RHP. 

Much of that time was spent with Fernando Tatis Jr. out of the lineup, and the Padres are a much better offensive team with him in the mix and playing at an elite level, like he has in the NLDS. 

The Padres bolstered their bullpen at the deadline with the additions of Jason Adam and Tanner Scott.

They feature arguably the best ‘pen in baseball, and this game provides the perfect matchup to pay off all those high-leverage arms. 

Darvish (3.03 ERA over his last six starts) will face a scary Dodgers lineup, especially at the top, which has been highly productive in this series.

However, Freddie Freeman (ankle) could miss his second straight game, and even if he does play, he is likely to be less effective.

Padres vs. Dodgers Game 5 pick

With the Padres holding a pitching edge and strong splits versus right-handed pitching, it’s difficult to understand why the Dodgers (-142, DraftKings) are favored by as much as they are. 

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Part of the price is tied to homefield advantage in a decisive game, but some data points suggest this is not the edge it is made out to be.

Since 2006, in Games 5-7 of an MLB playoff series, road teams are 53-51, and since 2019, they are 16-9.

Best bet: Padres (+120, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.